Bryce Young vs. C.J. Stroud: Tale of the tape for top two QBs in 2023 NFL Draft, entering Week 8 matchup

Breaking down the intricacies of the young, star passers from Alabama and Ohio State

In August 2022, I wrote a "Tale of the Tape" feature on Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, comparing the two highly coveted quarterback prospects, before their final collegiate seasons.

It's time to circle back and run a similar evaluation on the first two selections in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

In my scouting grade book, these are the top three categories (by importance and weight) at the quarterback position: Accuracy, athleticism and arm strength. Let's use those categories while layering in key NFL performance metrics to expand on how each has played to date early in their respective NFL careers. 

Accuracy 

Believe it or not, by the numbers, Young has been more accurate than Stroud entering Week 8. Young's adjusted completion percentage of 75.5% is 17th-best among qualifiers, and Stroud's 72.0% is 28th. While decently telling, that adjusted completion rate always needs additional context. 

Young's average depth of target (aDOT) is 7.0 yards, and a mere 4.9% of his attempts have been 20 or more yards downfield. Stroud's aDOT is currently 8.6 yards, tied for the 10th-highest in football, and 7.5% of his throws have been "deep" targets. 

In watching all of Young and Stroud's NFL dropbacks to date, observationally, I cannot confidently say Young's ball placement on all throws, in all situations, has been better the Stroud's. No way. Although the traditional statistics from Stroud right now have given a bit of a false sense of how good he's been individually. 

Advantage: Push 

Athleticism 

Based on what they demonstrated in college, this was an easy "Advantage: Young" before their final seasons -- and would've been afterward, too. 

But -- and this is vital -- Young's athletic gifts appeared to be at their functional limit in the ultra-competitive SEC. What I mean by that is, Young didn't have enough explosiveness and twitch for his mobility, and the creative plays that spawned from it, to be a real weapon once he reached the NFL. And that has been the case early in his debut professional season. Young's pressure-to-sack rate of 19.8% is the 10th-highest among qualifiers. It's been extremely rare to notice when Young has been able to avoid rushers inside or outside the pocket in his first six games with the Panthers. He's simply not a tremendous athlete, which quarterbacks essentially need to be in today's NFL to establish themselves as ad-libbing masters. 

As for Stroud, who appeared more stiff than Young in college, it's almost as if he's more aware of his athletic deficiencies so he doesn't try to extend plays nearly as often as his contemporary. Beyond that, as a more pure pocket passer, Stroud leans on his ability to throw strikes within the confines of the pocket and intended structure of the play more often. His pressure-to-sack rate is currently lower than Young's at 16.3%. 

Young is probably more athletic naturally, but when it comes to functional athleticism playing quarterback in the NFL, there doesn't appear to be a difference. 

Advantage: Push

Arm strength

Finally, a category with a clear winner. This was the case in college and, unsurprisingly, hasn't changed in the first half of the 2023 NFL season for these two. Stroud has a stronger arm than Young. It's not significantly stronger. But he has a much easier time stretching the field vertically or making those classic NFL throws from the far hash to toward the sideline. Young isn't drastically held back by his average-at-best arm. When he's running from pressure, it certainly doesn't help. 

Advantage: Stroud 

Clean-pocket play

No quarterback statistic has stronger predictive powers than clean-pocket play. A quarterback who routinely wins from the pocket, without pressure around him, typically continues that winning into the future. While Young's been more accurate in these scenarios -- and some of that has been because of what was mentioned above -- Stroud has been the more confident, needle-moving thrower in when kept clean. But his lead here isn't seismic. 

When not pressured, Stroud has a Big-Time Throw rate of 3.8% to a tiny 1.2% Turnover-Worthy Play rate. His yards-per-attempt average is a hefty 9.0, and he has nine touchdowns to one interception. Whether it's been seam strikes to Nico Collins or Robert Woods, or deep overs to Dalton Schultz or Tank Dell, when protected well, Stroud has done a respectable job generating chunk plays for the Texans offense. 

Young, on the other hand, has taken a more conservative route. He's been accurate on over 80% of throws in these scenarios, but his aDOT is a miniscule 5.9 yards with a TWP rate (3.0%) higher than his BTT rate (2.3%). I do believe Stroud's offensive scheme and skill-position talent have provided him with noticeably more open looks than Young, which absolutely needs to be considered here. 

Advantage: Stroud

Under-pressure play

While not incredibly predictive year over year, in a given season, strong under-pressure play is undeniably valuable to an offense. In almost every case, rookie quarterbacks battle through major growing pains in this area. And, frankly, Stroud and Young, at their best, have been as expected when dealing with and combatting pressure. 

Stroud's yards-per-attempt average of 4.8 ranks 28th in the NFL. Young's is second-to-last. Stroud doesn't have a BTT under pressure yet but has four TWPs. Young's figures on those categories are two BTTs to three TWPs. While watching their dropbacks, it's been obvious Young has attempted to generate off-structure plays more frequently than Stroud but has largely been ineffective in doing so. Stroud hasn't simply crumbled into a ball when there's been a leak in his offensive line or he's held the ball well beyond 2.5 seconds, yet he hasn't been anywhere close to magical under duress either. 

Advantage: Push 

Summary

The classic box score stats would scream that Stroud has been on another planet than Young, and while I'll conclude the Texans quarterback has been comfortably better, those classic statistics are slightly misleading as to just how good Stroud has been to date. Vibe-wise, he has mostly operated the offense like a seasoned veteran.

Young and his rebuilding Panthers have showed very few signs of life entering Week 8. It's a real challenge to point to one area in which the No. 1 overall pick has thrived. He's very much looked like a mostly overwhelmed rookie. 

But, if we're looking at trends, Young started disastrously and had his finest game of the season in the loss to the Dolphins before the Week 7 bye. Stroud steadily improved to a relatively high level after a bad NFL debut in Baltimore against a stingy Ravens defense yet had his worst effort of the season in Week 6's win over the Falcons before Houston's bye. 

We'll continue to be tracking the first two picks in the 2023 NFL Draft as they venture through the second half of their professional seasons.