The surprisingly undefeated Buffalo Bills take on the tumbling and winless Cincinnati Bengals in a Week 3 matchup at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at New Era Field. Cincinnati dropped a 21-20 decision to the Seahawks in the opener and was crushed by the 49ers 41-17 in Week 2. Now kings of New York, Buffalo edged the Jets 17-16 in Week 1 and took down the Giants 28-14 last week. Despite their winless mark in 2019, the Bengals are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games, while Buffalo is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games. Buffalo is a 6.5-point favorite in the Bills vs. Bengals odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 43.5, up 1.5 from the opener. Before you make any Bengals vs. Bills picks of your own, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season on a strong 17-10 run. It's also on a 79-53 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, it nailed the Seahawks (+4) covering against the Steelers and the Patriots (-18) covering a massive spread against the Dolphins with room to spare in Week 2. The model ranked inside the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third straight year on straight-up NFL picks and beat over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has simulated Bills vs. Bengals 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows how well Buffalo plays at New Era Field, as the Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games at home against the Bengals. Bills quarterback Josh Allen and his offense are finding their rhythm, having engineered four 70-plus-yard touchdown drives against the Giants in Week 2. Allen faces a Bengals defense that allowed 572 yards, the fifth-most in franchise history, to the 49ers last week. He also will get tight end Tyler Kroft, a former Bengal, in the lineup for the first time all season after recovering from a broken right foot.
Now 2-0 for the first time since 2011, Buffalo will have to slow down Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, who has an NFL-best 61 completions and 729 passing yards. But the Bills' defense has allowed just 22 points this season, not including an interception return for a score and a safety allowed against the Jets.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, has to be hurting after a devastating 41-17 defeat at the hands of San Francisco. The Bengals fell behind early and were unable to slow down the 49ers' rushing attack, which finished with over 250 yards rushing. However, wide receiver John Ross was a lone bright spot for the Bengals, finishing with four catches for 112 yards and a touchdown.
Buffalo is tied for first in the league in total rushing touchdowns, with four on the season. This week, the Bills will be without rookie running back Devin Singletary (hamstring), pushing veteran Frank Gore to the front of the line for touches. On the other sideline, the Bengals are stumbling into the contest with the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL, averaging just 29.5 rushing yards per game. However, the Bengals have dominated this series of late, winning four of their last five matchups against the Bills.
So who wins Bills vs. Bengals? And which side of the spread is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Bengals vs. Bills spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.
