The preseason quarterback competition drama across the NFL officially ended Tuesday with Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles naming 2018 first overall pick Baker Mayfield Tom Brady's successor as their next starting quarterback. Mayfield started in the Buccaneers' first preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He played the first four possessions, which included a 59-yard touchdown drive. Mayfield was an effective 8 of 9 passing for 63 yards and a touchdown, an 8-yard scoring pass to rookie Trey Palmer. His primary competition, 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask, then followed up Mayfield in that game and completed six of his 10 throws for 99 yards and an interception. Mayfield sat out last week's preseason loss to the Jets, as Trask played the majority of the game.
Mayfield is set to join a unique club following this announcement: he will become the sixth quarterback since at least 1950 to be a Week 1 starter for a different team in three consecutive seasons:
Week 1 starter for different team in 3 straight seasons
Since 1950
| Seasons | QB | Teams |
|---|---|---|
2020-2022 | ||
2009-2011 | Donovan McNabb | Eagles, Washington, Vikings |
2007-2009 | Brett Favre | |
2003-2005 | Kurt Warner | |
1997-1999 | Jim Harbaugh |
* Baker Mayfield started Week 1 for the Cleveland Browns in 2021 and the Carolina Panthers in 2022
If there's going to be any quarterback who follows in Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith's 2022 footsteps to go from career castoff to a solid starting quarterback/potential Pro Bowler in 2023, it's Mayfield. Mayfield enters the upcoming season with many parallels to Smith's career, one of which is being on his fourth team while facing what's likely his final chance to be considered an NFL starter.
Both Smith and Mayfield lit up the Big 12 in college and were selected in the first two rounds of the draft. Although, it's worth pointing out Mayfield entered the league with much higher hopes after being selected first overall in the 2018 NFL Draft versus Smith being selected 39th overall as a second-round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Mayfield started out his career well, setting the then record for most passing touchdowns by a rookie with 27 in 2018. The highwater mark of his career came in 2020 when he helped lead the Browns to their first playoff win since the 1994 season, but Cleveland opted to move on from Mayfield because of an injury-plagued 2021 campaign and the opportunity to acquire Deshaun Watson.
Smith struggled right from the start of his career playing on many subpar New York Jets teams (2013-2016) before bouncing around between the New York Giants (2017), Los Angeles Chargers (2018) and the Seattle Seahawks (2019-2021) as a backup. Russell Wilson being traded to the Denver Broncos opened the door for Smith to compete with Drew Lock to be the Seahawks' starting quarterback at 32 years old, and he made the most of the opportunity, playing like a top 10 quarterback and earning the first Pro Bowl selection of his 10-year career. Brady's second retirement led to Mayfield's arrival in Tampa Bay via free agency this offseason.
Smith led the NFL in completion percentage (68.8%), throwing a Seahawks-record 4,282 passing yards and ranked top five in the league in passing touchdowns (30) and passer rating (100.9). That performance propelled him to win the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, not for overcoming any injury, but rather eight years of unspectacular play on the field.
| GENO SMITH (2022 SEASON) | STATS | NFL RANK |
|---|---|---|
Comp Pct | 69.8%* | 1st |
Pass Yards | 4,282* | 8th |
Pass TD | 30 | 4th |
Passer Rating | 100.9 | 5th |
* Seahawks single-season record
One key factor in Smith's 2022 resurgence is he landed in an offense with two Pro Bowl receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Mayfield is in a similar situation with the ability to throw to four-time Pro Bowl wideout Mike Evans as well as Pro Bowl receiver Chris Godwin. Smith's quarterback coach with Seattle last season, Dave Canales, is now with Mayfield in Tampa Bay as the Buccaneers offensive coordinator. Canales has spent the last 13 seasons working under Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll in Seattle As for what type of Mayfield magic Canales hopes his quarterback can recapture, well recently as 2020, Mayfield led the Browns to the playoffs and an opening-round win.
Baker Mayfield as starting quarterback last three seasons
| 2020 | 2021-2022 | |
|---|---|---|
Team W-L | 11-5 | 8-16 |
Team PPG | 25.5 | 20.1 |
Team Total YPG | 369.6 | 310.6 |
What does this mean for Mayfield and his connection with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans?
Godwin, a one-time Pro Bowl selection and Evans, a four-time Pro Bowl selection, rival Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. for the most talented pass-catching duo of Mayfield's six-year career. He'll lean hard on both of them, especially the 6-foot-5, 231-pound Evans, to corral jump balls. The 28-year-old passer has become a little more erratic since his career year in 2020. However, Godwin, Evans and Canales could easily be the trio to right Mayfield's proverbial ship.
Baker Mayfield last 3 seasons
NFL ranks since 2020
| 2020 | 2021-2022 | |
|---|---|---|
TD-INT | 26-8 (9th) | 27-21 (31st) |
Sack Rate | 5.1% (14th) | 9.5% (33rd) |
Off-Target Pct | 9.9% (16th) | 13.9% (32nd) |
* Ranks among 35 qualified quarterbacks
Evans needs to help Mayfield thrive in order to extend his streak of consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards to 10 in a row. His nine in a row to begin his career are the most ever to begin an NFL career. He is two 1,000-yard seasons away from tying wide receiver G.O.A.T Jerry Rice's 11 in a row. Rice's streak began in his second NFL season in 1986 and it ran through the 1996 season. In a wide-open NFC South, anything is possible. That includes the possibility of Mayfield breaking out for the best year of his career in 2023.
