Lions star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be out four to six months with a broken left tibia and fibula, coach Dan Campbell said on Monday, putting a return this season highly unlikely even if Detroit were to make the Super Bowl.
The 6-foot-7, 268-pound Hutchinson, who entered Week 6 leading the NFL with 6.5 sacks despite playing just four games, suffered a broken left tibia and fibula in the third quarter of Sunday's win over the Cowboys while sacking quarterback Dak Prescott. Hutchinson underwent successful surgery Sunday night in the Dallas area.
"Hutch is a captain for us, highly productive player, great teammate, does everything right, was having a one helluva game, one helluva season," Campbell said. "It hurts. It hurts to lose somebody like him, not only the player but the person that's in that locker room, the leader that he is."
Just how significant of an impact is Hutchinson's injury to a team that reached the NFC Championship Game last season and had Super Bowl aspirations this season? Devastating, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says Detroit's chances of winning the Super Bowl have dropped more than 50% because of the injury, from 8.8% with Hutchinson to 4.3% without him. With the Lions' odds to win the Super Bowl at +850 (implied odds of 10.5%), Detroit offers no value in the Super Bowl futures market.
According to the model, the Hutchinson-less Lions finish with just 10.2 wins (versus 10.8 with him), win the division just 15.3% of the time (down from 22.5%), reach the playoffs 64.7% of the time (down from 73.8%) and win the NFC just 9.4% of the time (down from 17.2%).
Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model, says part of Detroit's problem is the strength of its division. The Vikings (5-0) are one of just two undefeated teams in the league, and the Lions (4-1) sit just a half game ahead of both the Packers (4-2) and Bears (4-2).
"The NFC North is brutally tough, it looks like all four teams are playoff teams and it's likely that all four teams with be minus money to make the playoffs," Oh says. "With a healthy Hutchinson, the Lions were projected for the second-best record in the NFC, but that was second to Minnesota with Green Bay and Chicago not too far behind."
However, Detroit's chances will improve if the front office adds a quality pass rusher before the Nov. 5 trade deadline. Those who could be available include the Raiders' Maxx Crosby, the Panthers' Jadeveon Clowney and the Browns' Za'Darius Smith. Crosby would help the Lions the most, according to the model, raising the team's chances of winning the Super Bowl to 9.0%, better than they were before the Hutchinson injury.
"Crosby actually gets them above where they were with Hutchinson from a purely statistical standpoint since Crosby has had the current top-five edge production for a longer time," Oh says.
Clowney and Smith would improve Detroit only marginally. The model says the Lions' Super Bowl chances would inch up to 5.1% with Clowney and 4.7% with Smith.
On Monday, Campbell expressed confidence in defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn's ability to come up with a game plan and the other defensive linemen to step up in the absence of Hutchinson. Alim McNeill ranks second on the team in sacks, with two, but plays on the inside. Levi Onwuzurike, Josh Paschal and rookie Isaac Ukwu figure to see more snaps moving forward.
Though multiple reports have said that Hutchinson will miss the rest of the season, the four-to-six-month timeline suggests that he could be healthy come mid-February. The Super Bowl is scheduled for Feb. 9.
"I would never count Hutch out, ever," Campbell said Monday. "Probably a long road [back], but I would never count him out. I would say if anybody can make it back, it would be him."
As for Week 7, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Lions and Vikings on Sunday. However, that game isn't one of the three with A-grade picks based on model simulations for Week 7. You can find those top-tier Week 7 NFL picks at SportsLine.
