Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas just cashed in, signing five-year, $70 million contracts with their respective teams right before the July 15 franchise player deadline for long-term deals. These two contracts should serve as a boost to a wide receiver market that has been stagnant.
Below is a chart outlining the top of the current wide receiver market.
| The current wide receiver market | ||||
| Player | Contract guarantees | Guaranteed at signing | Average salary | Contract length |
| 1. Calvin Johnson | $53,250,000 | $53,250,000 | $16,207,143 | 7-year extension |
| 2. Dez Bryant | $45,000,000 | $32,000,000 | $14,000,000 | 5 years |
| 3. Demaryius Thomas | $43,500,000 | $35,000,000 | $14,000,000 | 5 years |
| 4. Mike Wallace | $30,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $12,000,000 | 5 years |
| 5. Vincent Jackson | $26,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $11,111,111 | 5 years |
The guaranteed money -- $48.75 million -- is usually the figure associated with Calvin Johnson’s contract. This interpretation omits the $4.5 million roster bonus in his rookie contract, which was payable on the same day the new deal was executed, from the guaranteed money. This roster bonus is included in Johnson’s contract guarantees.
In actuality, Thomas’ contract is $43.5 million for three years with an option for 2018 and 2019. A $4 million payment is required between five days after the 2017 season Super Bowl (Feb. 9, 2018) and the first day of the 2018 league year (mid-March of 2018) for the option years.
There are structural differences between Thomas and Bryant’s deals even though the overall dollars for the five years are the same. Bryant’s guarantees are more player-friendly. He will have $45 million fully guaranteed next March while Thomas will still be at $35 million.
Bryant’s guarantees have offsets. Thomas doesn’t have offsets. This issue will only become relevant if the players have a big drop in productivity during the next three seasons since there isn’t any guaranteed money in their 2018 and 2019 contract years. An offset clause reduces the guaranteed money a team owes a player when he is released by the amount of his new deal with another team. Without an offset, the player receives his salary from the team that released him as well as the full salary from his new contract with another club (also known as “double dipping”).
Here’s a look at the wide receivers that could reap the benefit of the changes in the wide receiver salary landscape during the next couple of years.
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons: Bryant and Thomas establish a clear salary benchmark for Jones. Although negotiations reportedly haven’t begun, signing Jones to an extension is a top priority for the Falcons. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Falcons reach an agreement with Jones before the regular season begins. The timing on quarterback Matt Ryan’s extension in 2013 was the start of training camp.
The two-time Pro Bowler eased concerns about the broken right foot that limited him to five games in 2013 with a career year in 2014. Jones was third in the NFL in receptions (104) and receiving yards (1,593). His 88.4 receiving yards per game is the best career mark in NFL history.
Jones is scheduled to play the 2015 season under his fully guaranteed $10.176 million option year salary. He’s virtually a lock to receive a franchise tag in 2016 if he doesn’t get a new deal. The wide receiver franchise tag number will be approximately $14 million in 2016 with a $150 million salary cap, which is less than a five percent increase over this year’s $143.28 million salary cap. A second franchise tag in 2017 should be around $16.8 million, a 20 percent increase over Jones’ 2016 franchise number under these conservative cap projections.
The average of franchising Jones twice should be $15.4 million per year at a minimum. The $14 million per year average of Thomas and Bryant’s deals is a little less than their two year franchise tag average of $14.1 million per year. A similar approach should put Jones’ extension average in the $15.25 million per year neighborhood. His guarantees should be comparable to Thomas and Bryant’s considering Jones would conservatively make a little under $41 million through 2017 with the year-to-year approach.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals: Green seems content to play under his fully guaranteed $10.176 million option year. It may be a smart move by him since he had arguably his worst NFL season in 2014 due to of an assortment of injuries. Green was selected to his fourth straight Pro Bowl in 2014 although he had a career low 1,041 receiving yards. He is third in catches (329) and fourth in receiving yards (4,874) in a player’s first four NFL seasons despite the injury plagued 2014 campaign.
The overall dollars or average yearly salary won’t be a sticking point in contract discussions. These deal components will be comparable to his peer group of Bryant, Jones (assuming he has already signed) and Thomas.
Signing Green long term may be a challenging proposition because of Cincinnati’s preferred structure with lucrative veteran contracts. The team’s contracts are typically light on guaranteed money because of the absence of base salaries guarantees. Quarterback Andy Dalton’s six-year extension with a base value of $16 million per year has a team high $17 million in guarantees. The Bengals will likely have a hard time convincing Green that a contract with less than half of the guaranteed money as his peers is appropriate. Since reinventing the wheel structurally will be a difficult proposition for Green, it won’t be a surprise if he plays at least one year under a franchise tag.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts: Hilton raised the question on Twitter shortly after Thomas and Bryant signed about whether the bar has been set for him. The 2012 third-round pick isn’t quite in the same class as the newly signed duo. He will benefit from the ripple effect of their deals, which should make it much easier to eclipse Mike Wallace’s deal.
Hilton, one of the NFL’s premier deep threats, had a monster first half of the 2014 season with 53 receptions and 866 receiving yards before tailing off considerably. The drop off was partially because of a late season hamstring injury. He finished the season with 82 receptions, 1,345 receiving yards (6th in the NFL) and seven receiving touchdowns.
Colts owner Jim Irsay has indicated that he would like to sign Hilton to a new deal sooner rather than later. It remains to be seen whether Hilton, who has made $1,977,400 in his three NFL seasons, plays out the final year of his four year rookie contract for his scheduled $1.542 million salary.
The somewhat surprising selection of speedster Phillip Dorsett with the 29th overall pick in this year’s draft gives the Colts additional leverage and flexibility in Hilton’s situation. Hilton will be a prime candidate for Indianapolis’ franchise tag in 2016 if he plays out his contract.
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears: The wait-and-see approach new General Manager Ryan Pace is taking with the players he inherited from Phil Emery, his predecessor, may prove to be costly. Jeffery assumes the role as Chicago’s clear cut number one wide receiver with Brandon Marshall’s trade to the New York Jets.
The 2012 second-round pick was one of the NFL’s most productive pass catchers while paired with Marshall. He ranks ninth in receptions (174), fifth in receiving yards (2,554) and is tied for ninth in receiving touchdowns (17) over the last two seasons.
Jeffery, who is in the final year of a four-year rookie deal worth $4,547,830, could be poised for a career year in new offensive coordinator Adam Gase’s receiver friendly system. Thomas had at least 90 catches, 1,400 receiving yards and 10 touchdown receptions in each of three seasons in Gase’s offense. Jeffery’s doesn’t have future first ballot Hall of Famer Peyton Manning getting him the football like Thomas.
Improving on his season bests of 89 catches, 1,421 receiving yards and 10 touchdown receptions as the focal point of defenses should put Jeffery in a position to top Thomas and Bryant’s deals. Jeffery will be destined for a franchise tag next offseason without a new deal if he sustains his 2013 and 2014 level of production.
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers: Brown contemplated holding out earlier in the offseason over unhappiness with the five-year, $41.96 million extension he signed in 2012. He was a full participant in offseason activities except for missing one day at the beginning of voluntary workouts. Brown is expected to report when the Steelers open training camp on July 25. A training camp holdout would likely be an exercise in futility because he has three years remaining on his contract. The Steelers typically wait until a player is entering his contract year before having discussions about a new deal.
The two-time All-Pro has clearly outperformed his contract. Brown led the NFL in 2014 with 129 receptions, the second best single season mark ever, and 1,698 receiving yards. He was also tied for second with 13 touchdown receptions.
The best case scenario for Brown is the Steelers addressing his salary inequity before the start of the 2016 regular season since a new precedent wouldn’t be established with this timeframe. Ben Roethlisberger signed an extension in 2008 when he had two years left on his rookie deal. Brown will be able to make a compelling case for becoming the NFL’s highest paid wide receiver next offseason with another All-Pro caliber season in 2015.
2014 fourth-round pick Martavis Bryant having the breakout season that’s anticipated could complicate matters. The Steelers might be inclined to make Brown with Bryant emerging since both players are under contract through the 2017 season.
Joel Corry is a former sports agent who helped found Premier Sports & Entertainment, a sports management firm that represents professional athletes and coaches. Before his tenure at Premier, Joel worked for Management Plus Enterprises, which represented Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Ronnie Lott.
You can follow him on Twitter: @corryjoel | You can email him at jccorry@gmail.com
