After consecutive road losses, the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers look to rebound at home against the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. The 49ers (1-2) fell to the Rams, 27-24, while the Patriots (1-2) lost to the Jets, 24-3 last Thursday night. San Francisco has won two of the last three meetings, including a 33-6 victory in Foxboro in October 2020.
Kickoff from Levi's Stadium is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. San Francisco is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest 49ers vs. Patriots odds, per SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points is 40.5. Before making any Patriots vs. 49ers picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Patriots vs. 49ers and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 4 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for spread, money line and over/under:
- 49ers vs. Patriots spread: 49ers -10.5
- 49ers vs. Patriots over/under: 40.5 points
- 49ers vs. Patriots money line: 49ers -592, Patriots +431
- 49ers vs. Patriots picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Patriots can cover
New England has already won once this season as a big road underdog, beating Cincinnati 16-10 in Week 1 while getting 7.5 points from the oddsmakers. Now they'll once again have their hands full against a 49ers team coming off consecutive losses. A key for New England will be running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who rushed for a combined 201 yards and two touchdowns in Weeks 1-2 before a six carry, 23 yard effort vs. the Jets last week.
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been the team's starter for all three games thus far, but will likely soon turn over the reigns to rookie No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye. The gunslinger from the University of North Carolina saw his first NFL action against New York, completing 4 of 8 passes for 22 yards. Against a Niners team dealing with major injury issues, New England should look to play ball control and keep the ball out of the hands of Brock Purdy and San Francisco's offense. See which team to pick here.
Why the 49ers can cover
Even without wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle and star running back Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers looked to be in full control last week in Los Angeles. But they squandered a 24-14 lead in the fourth quarter, falling to the Rams as the offense couldn't make a big play down the stretch. Quarterback Brock Purdy played very well though, throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns in the defeat.
In the absence of Samuel and Kittle, WR Jauan Jennings joined Brandon Aiyuk in the starting lineup and torched the Rams' secondary. Jennings caught 11 passes for 175 yards and three touchdowns, nearly singlehandedly leading the 49ers to victory. Against a solid New England secondary, Aiyuk and Jennings will have to make plays in space to help San Francisco's offense. Running back Jordan Mason has also been a pleasant surprise, having rushed for 324 yards and two touchdowns thus far with McCaffrey out. See which team to pick here.
How to make Patriots vs. 49ers picks
The model has simulated New England vs. San Francisco 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Under on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's Patriots vs. 49ers pick at SportsLine.
So who wins San Francisco vs. New England on Sunday, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Patriots vs. 49ers spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 188-130 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
