With the 49ers trading up to No. 3 overall in a swap with the Dolphins, one thing is abundantly clear. San Francisco will be picking a quarterback with that selection. Teams don't move multiple first-round picks like the 49ers just did to pick a cornerback inside the top 5.
Given their new luxurious position in the 2021 NFL Draft, let's evaluate the top quarterback prospects -- not named Trevor Lawrence -- from a San Francisco fit perspective.
4. Mac Jones, Alabama
Fit: Decent
Jones wins with quick decisions and high-level ball placement -- and that combination translates to any system. With Shanahan those elements of playing the quarterback position are vital than other attacks like prioritize pushing the football down the field.
As we saw at Alabama, Jones can get the most out of a quarterback-friendly system. Just two years after Tua Tagovailo's breakout season with the Crimson Tide in 2018, Jones was more efficient completing passes and had a higher yards per attempt average with a better touchdown-to-interception ratio. In short, Jones would produce with Shanahan.
However, he's technically the worst fit of the top four quarterback prospects in this class because he's clearly the least athletic with the most limited throw-on-the-run skill. Shanahan's offense, that features plenty of bootlegs, and those simply aren't strengths of Jones' game.
3. Zach Wilson, BYU
Fit: Good
Wilson in 49ers gold would be something. He's an inherently athletic quarterback with a live arm and there's not a throw on the field he can't make. At BYU, Wilson awesomely operated a wide-zone based offense with many elements similar to Kyle Shanahan's in San Francisco -- lots of play action, rollouts, and many quick throws over the middle that by design accentuate yards after the catch.
Last season, Jimmy Garoppolo finished with the NFL's ninth-highest play-action rate. In the Super Bowl run of 2019, he had the league's fourth-highest figure. In 2020 with the Cougars, Wilson attempted the 14th-most play-action passes in college football. He completed 72.4% of those throws -- second-highest figure among the quarterbacks in the top 30 of play-action passes. Beyond that, Wilson tossed 20 touchdowns with 0 -- yes, 0 -- interceptions at a bulky 12.39 yards per attempt when first faking a handoff to the running back. Bananas.
Essentially, Wilson wouldn't have much of a proverbial learning curve entering Shanahan's offense.
The one element that makes this fit "good" instead of "great" -- Wilson's improvisational tendencies. They're a big part of why Wilson is so highly regarded in this top-heavy quarterback class. Shanahan's scheme doesn't necessarily welcome routine ad-libbing. It's an offense that prefers designed movement for its quarterback by way of the rollout over off-script tosses when the first read is covered. While I doubt Shanahan would discourage Wilson's creativity altogether, yet the system is so well-conceived, it likely wouldn't tap into Wilson's full improvisational prowess.
2. Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Fit: Great
Lance has an All-Pro skill set. Is that skill set fully cultivated yet? Absolutely not. And that's totally understandable -- he was 19 years old in his only full year as the Bison's starter.
Lance has the strongest arm in the 2021 class, and he's a naturally explosive, ultra-athletic ball carrier, particularly in the designed run game. The North Dakota offense asked him to throw the ball off play action quite often. In most scenarios he was only reading one side of the field and frequently ripped it to his first read. Even for a very green passer, all of that specific experience caters well to what Shanahan would ask of him. Because of his arm and deep-ball touch, Lance would give the 49ers offense a new layer.
There are two aspects of what Lance provides as a passer today makes him a "great" not "amazing" fit. First off, he's probably a year -- or maybe two -- away from being a competent NFL starter, and the 49ers would be reaching a bit if they believe they're Super Bowl contenders once again in 2021. Secondly, in San Francisco, it's unlikely that the entire array of his skill set would be tapped into. Lance was Cam Newton Lite at North Dakota State in 2019, and Shanahan's system simply doesn't -- or at least hasn't yet -- called for that from its quarterback.
1. Justin Fields, Ohio State
Fit: Amazing
The football lover in me wants to see Fields in Shanahan's offense. The fit couldn't be better on paper. Fields would instantly be the most naturally gifted quarterback Shanahan's ever coached. His pinpoint accuracy and aggressiveness to the first read are tailor-made for the 49ers offense.
Plus, Fields is a super-smooth athlete who's phenomenal throwing on the run. In 2020 with the Buckeyes, Fields attempted 33 passes on designed rollouts -- the 12th-most in college football -- and completed 29 of them at 9.18 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and an interception. That 87.9% completion rate on designed rollouts was the second-highest rate among the 44 passers who attempted at least 20 of those throws. Fields was no slouch of play action either -- he connected on 74% of his 77 attempts at a hefty 11.78 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and one pick.
Lastly, Fields' weaknesses would presumably be masked in Shanahan's system. At times, Fields' processing slows after the first read. No play-caller designed more open initial looks than Shanahan. While capable of outstanding escapes from defenders in the backfield, Fields leans more toward utilizing his legs than finding open wideouts in scramble-drill situations.
