No NFC team has won more regular-season games over the past three years than the Cowboys, who open the 2024 NFL schedule with a road game against the Browns. Dallas is facing an elite defense to open the campaign, and the Cowboys were not nearly as strong offensively on the road as they were at home last year. Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite in the Week 1 NFL odds, which is one of seven Week 1 NFL spreads of three points or smaller. Dallas opened as a slight favorite this summer, so is there any value at +2.5 following the line movement?
Other Week 1 NFL lines include Texans (-3) at Colts and 49ers (-4) vs. Jets. There are still 14 NFL games remaining, giving bettors plenty of options when it comes to building Week 1 NFL parlay picks. Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 1 NFL picks
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Detroit Lions (-4.5) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams. The Lions are coming off their best season in decades, winning the NFC North and making an appearance in the NFC Championship. Their biggest liability was their secondary, but they took steps to address that issue during the offseason by adding multiple veterans and rookies.
Detroit should also have a huge edge along the offensive line against a Los Angeles defensive front that lost Aaron Donald to retirement. The Rams already struggled to slow down opposing rushing attacks with Donald, so it is going to be an even bigger issue without him. SportsLine's model has the Lions rushing for more than 110 yards on Sunday night, which is a big reason why they are covering the spread in almost 60% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.
How to make Week 1 NFL parlays
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a home favorite that covers the spread in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine.
What are the model's top Week 1 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 185-129 run on top-rated picks, and find out.
