2024 NFL franchise tag predictions: Brian Burns traded; Michael Pittman, Tee Higgins have different futures

Breaking down all of the franchise tag situations

The franchise tag deadline came and went Tuesday afternoon, and once again a large list of extremely talented young football players are unable to maximize their value on the open market because of an archaic roster rule designed to restrict player movement. I "like" the franchise tag from an offseason entertainment perspective, but it probably should have been collectively bargained out of existence years ago. 

One thing I will note: the tag isn't as bad as it was even just 10 years ago, because salaries are jacked up (some of these tags are massive numbers) and modern medicine means the risk of playing a season on a single-year, fully-guaranteed contract is much, much lower. For a guy like Brian Burns, for instance, he's 24 years old. Play the season on the tag, light it up and go get really, really rich in full-blown free agency. 

But the tag is still a slap in the face to players. Teams are essentially saying "we really really kind of like you" and very much not "we love you." There's a reason the tag is likened to a promise ring. No one wants a promise ring. 

Anyway, let's look at the nine guys who got stuck on the bad end of a game of tag on Tuesday afternoon. 

Justin Madubuike, DT, Ravens

Tag price: $22.1 million

Madubuike exploded on the scene this year in former DC Mike MacDonald defense, compiling 13 sacks, easily more than his previous four seasons combined. Due to a dumb setup with the CBA, edge players who classify as outside linebackers get linebacker tags, and defensive ends are tagged for less than defensive tackles, so this is a pretty stout number. The Ravens had no choice here, because of all the free agents (13 total on defense alone) they're set to potentially lose. Madubuike has just one year of elite production, but the former third-round pick was awesome in that one year. Worth noting here: this is the non-exclusive tag, meaning other teams can negotiate with Madubuike, but they'd have to surrender two first-round picks if they signed him and the Ravens didn't match. Baltimore used this on Lamar Jackson last year, and it may very well be the approach GM Eric DeCosta takes with the tag in general. The Ravens are in the red in terms of cap space now, which should incentivize them to get a deal done with Madubuike. Generally speaking, Baltimore is pretty good about trying to work out deals with guys (six of the last eight tagged players signed deals), especially homegrown ones. 

Prediction: Long-term deal before July 17

Brian Burns, EDGE, Carolina Panthers

Tag price: $24.0 million

Oh boy. The Panthers really mangled this one, didn't they? Drafting Brian Burns was great! He's a really good player. But despite rebuilding, they reportedly turned down two first-round picks for him when the Rams were pursuing him, they jammed him in a defense that doesn't really work for him last year, and now they have to pay him $24 million for one year. Burns, still just 24 years old, is a blue-chip player. But he doesn't really fit the Panthers' current rebuild timeline, or their defense. He and his agents have been unable to reach a deal with two different front offices, and Dan Morgan carrying over from last year doesn't help matters. Burns wants to be paid like a top edge rusher, and the Panthers are clearly hesitant to do so. The problem is they're not going to tag him again, and while signing him doesn't make a ton of sense, losing him doesn't, either, especially when you think about bad of shape this roster is in and with no first-round pick to boot. Carolina is just floating in a maw here and would be best served by trying to find someone who will give up a mid-to-late first-round pick in this year's draft for a premium edge rusher who is younger than some of the guys in this class. Otherwise, they're going to lose him and land nothing but a third-round compensatory pick down the road for their troubles. 

Prediction: Tag and trade

Jaylon Johnson, CB, Chicago Bears

Tag price: $19.8 million 

One of the more underrated players in the NFL, Johnson's tag situation kind of flew under the radar. He had a breakout season in his fourth year (second in Matt Eberflus system, which has done some nice things for these defenders), he plays a premium position, and he's just 24 years old. He also plays on a team that is clearly trying to make a push to win now under the current regime. They traded a second-round pick for Montez Sweat and paid him handsomely. They're going to draft Caleb Williams -- unless they decide to trade out of the top pick, which would be insane but is fun to mock draft -- and then probably give Williams either a wide receiver or an offensive lineman with the ninth pick (or in a trade up). The positive momentum for the Bears is so strong it would be wild to not extend a young elite cornerback given what the Bears hope to be in the next few years. 

Prediction: Long-term deal before July 17

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals 

Tag price: $21.8 million

The Bengals were quick to slap the tag on Higgins. Can't blame them -- he'd command massive money as the top wideout in this free agency class. It's hard to think about Higgins without imagining what the Chiefs would be if they take him instead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (taken one pick earlier to close out the first round after their first Super Bowl win). It's also sad to imagine what happens if the Bengals treat Higgins like A.J. Green and let him play out his tag year and then walk into free agency. The circumstances are different, but ownership is the same. Cincy did this with Jessie Bates III last year. too. They don't treat the tag as a good faith negotiation to keep talent in-house; they view it as an extra year of control before letting a player leave. I would expect you see an early Bengals wide receiver pick in the draft this year as a result. 

Prediction: One year --> Adios

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts 

Tag price: $21.8 million

Very different situation here with Pittman and Higgins I think. Now a LOT has to do with what's going on with Colts ownership and Jim Irsay. Clearly, Jim being healthy is fantastic. But he's had a heavy hand on the franchise lately. Will he be involved in these negotiations the way he was involved in the Jonathan Taylor contract talks? The Colts took Anthony Richardson fourth overall last year and made him their franchise quarterback. Without Pittman this wideout group gets real thin, real quick. Josh Downs is an awesome slot receiver and a great compliment to a guy like Pittman. The problem with Pittman -- and with Higgins -- is the Davante Adams/Tyreek Hill fake money average. The true top of the receiver market is Cooper Kupp at $26.7 million per year. If Pittman -- and, again, Higgins -- are willing to take something in the $23 million per year range, then a deal can get done. If they want north of $25 million, it's going to be really tough to pull off. I think Pittman, who has not played with a consistent QB situation but also has just 15 receiving touchdowns in four years, ends up inking a deal.

Prediction: Long-term deal before July 17

Josh Allen, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Tag price: $24.0 million

This sitch is oddly so different from the Panthers. (If you're mad I used "sitch" in an allegedly professional sports writing article on the Tiff network's website, wait until you find out we can use emojis in articles! 🤷‍♂️) The Jaguars are set, maybe, at quarterback and won a home playoff game just two years ago. Allen, unlike Burns, thrived last year. He helped unlock Travon Walker. The Jags pass rush could be a problem if bothy guys cook this year. Jacksonville has stability and a core, they need to pay Allen now. He was a viable DPOY candidate last year if the team doesn't combust and miss the playoffs. The issue is the pass-rusher market is tough to figure out. Are you giving Allen more than T.J. Watt? Does he want closer to Nick Bosa? There's no easy landing spot, and the Jags won't want to cave when they have leverage with the tag. 

Prediction: Play out 2024 --> weird franchise tag standoff in 2025

L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Kansas City Chiefs

Tag price: $19.8 million

Kansas City has always been pretty active when it comes to trading with the tag (see: Frank Clark), and they're putting the vibe out with Sneed. Leger Douzable and I talked about Sneed on the "Pick Six NFL" podcast on Tuesday and how it makes total sense for him to come back and try to win three titles in a row. Every player who has two with the Chiefs already should be doing it. Having said that ... Sneed is 27, he was a fourth-round pick, he's playing the best football of his career and he should bank a massive deal if he can. The Chiefs told him to seek a trade, and I expect his agents to find someone who will give him somewhere in the range of $40 million guaranteed on the low end. He was outstanding this year. The only impediment is the Chiefs seeing the salary cap bump and thinking they can run it back this year.

Prediction: Tag and trade

Antoine Winfield, Jr., S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tag price: $17.1 million

Maybe my favorite player from his draft class, Winfield is an All-Pro monster in Todd Bowles defense. Credit to GM Jason Licht -- he's created a culture in Tampa that these players love. Mike Evans signed a two-year deal well before free agency began, the Bucs wisely put the tag on Winfield, and the expectation is that Baker Mayfield will return to Tampa. Winfield is a stud and he'd be a stud in a lot of places, but Bowles as his coach makes him a monster. No income tax helps, too! Look at the Tampa defenders the last few years. They almost all end up re-signing because they love this defense. Winfield is even more important to lock down with Lavonte David TBD and Devin White set to become a free agent. The Bucs have taken care of their own recently and I think they do it here.

Prediction: Long-term deal before July 17