The 2024 NFL Draft is around the corner, and no position is poised to get more attention than quarterback. Everyone wants an elite one, and most struggle to secure one. No doubt that several will try to unearth the next superstar starting April 25.
No fewer than four signal-callers are widely expected to come off the board on the first night of the draft this year. USC's Caleb Williams, North Carolina's Drake Maye, LSU's Jayden Daniels and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy have all been projected as first-rounders, with Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon's Bo Nix other Day 1 possibilities.
What can history tell us about how many of these inevitable first-round quarterback investments will actually pan out? We're glad you asked. We've reviewed every single Day 1 selection over the last 15 years and assigned "grades" for each:
- Home run: A bona fide star with championship-caliber talent, production and/or potential
- Solid result: A good, maybe even great, QB who's still got sizable hurdles to clear
- Mixed result: A QB who flashed but, for whatever reason, did not or is not panning out
- Incomplete: A QB who's yet to fully prove himself
- Miss: A clear flop as a short- and/or long-term starter
Some of the quarterbacks straddle the lines more than others, and we'd be remiss if we didn't partially excuse some of the misses for the situations in which they struggled (you can't control where you're drafted, after all). But let this recap paint a picture of the unpredictability that comes with the hunt for a star signal-caller:
2023
| Pick | Player | Team | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Incomplete | ||
2 | Texans | Incomplete | |
| 4 | Anthony Richardson | Colts | Incomplete |
Young looked two steps behind NFL speed while working with a porous supporting cast in Carolina, but even his ill-fated debut can't define his career. Not until we've seen him under new coach Dave Canales. Stroud is clearly trending upward, flashing MVP material as a confident downfield attacker; he's the biggest reason Houston should scare opponents in 2024. And Richardson is a total unknown, showing dual-threat dynamism before injuries robbed him of almost his entire rookie season.
2022
| Pick | Player | Team | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
20 | Kenny Pickett | Miss |
Pickett had the misfortune of operating on a sluggish offense with shoddy protection for much of his two years at the helm, and while team brass preached patience, touting his late-game toughness, their actions spoke louder than words this offseason, as he was quickly dumped via trade to the Philadelphia Eagles in favor of Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields.
2021
| Pick | Player | Team | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Solid result | ||
2 | Miss | ||
| 3 | Trey Lance | 49ers | Miss |
| 11 | Justin Fields | Bears | Mixed result |
| 15 | Mac Jones | Patriots | Miss |
Lawrence passed the eye test with flying colors in 2022, his first under a legitimate NFL staff. But he regressed as a decision-maker with a tweaked setup in 2023. His electric arm should help him rebound. Wilson was both erratic and painfully conservative in two years before the Jets added a near-40-year-old Aaron Rodgers to take over. Even after Rodgers' 2023 injury afforded him a shot at redemption, the results weren't there. Lance flashed all the physical tools but played just eight games in San Francisco before injuries opened the door for Brock Purdy. Fields probably registers as more of a "miss" to Chicago, considering the Bears are set to draft his replacement just three years later. But so much of that is their own doing; Fields' aerial decision-making was hit or miss, but he often kept Windy City competitive with his electric mobility, despite a lowly setup. Jones was a fair mid-range passer as a rookie, but he regressed amid poor conditions and has already been shipped off.
2020
| Pick | Player | Team | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Home run | ||
5 | Solid result | ||
6 | Solid result | ||
| 26 | Jordan Love | Packers | Incomplete |
Burrow is undeniably one of the top five or so quarterbacks in the game, offsetting any questions of mobility with razor-sharp precision and pocket presence, though he obviously has to stay upright to keep vying for AFC titles. Tagovailoa has enjoyed stretches of video-game production as Miami's all-star point guard, but his pinpoint accuracy fades off-script, lending to big-game questions. Herbert is the total package physically with ridiculous production (114 TDs, 42 INTs), but like Tagovailoa he's yet to produce a defining big-game/late-year run. Love is following Aaron Rodgers' footsteps, taking over Green Bay's gig after three years on the bench; if his arm remains as energetic as it was in an inspiring 2023 breakout, he's bound for stardom.
2019
| Pick | Player | Team | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mixed result | ||
6 | Mixed result | ||
15 | Dwayne Haskins | Washington | Miss |
Two or three years back, Murray might've been considered a home run, pairing a rocket arm with scurrying legs. His reliability and availability have since dipped; oft-injured, there might not be a more mercurial talent at the position. Jones went from clumsy victim of circumstance to underrated dual threat and back again from 2021-2023, and now the Giants quietly appear intent on finding a successor. The late Haskins made just 13 starts in two seasons before his demotion and release.
2018
| Pick | Player | Team | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mixed result | ||
3 | Jets | Miss | |
7 | Josh Allen | Home run | |
| 10 | Josh Rosen | Cardinals | Miss |
| 32 | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | Home run |
Mayfield reintroduced the Browns to quarterback moxie and reinvented himself as a figurehead for a run-first offense, but ultimately left after four battered and turnover-prone seasons, resurfacing as a decent starter with the Buccaneers in 2023. Darnold endured a steeper dip into skittish tendencies for a porous Jets team. Allen, meanwhile, has gone the opposite direction, starting as a wayward gunslinger and evolving into a big-armed, big-bodied MVP type, though his style is inherently riskier than most. Rosen never stood a chance, flopping as a lean, limited pocket passer before Arizona dumped him after a single season. Jackson is one of the NFL's defining talents; he's had durability questions, but his world-class speed and arm zip has kept Baltimore afloat, even as the team struggled to surround him with steady pass catchers.
2017
| Pick | Player | Team | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | Bears | Miss | |
10 | Mixed result | ||
12 | Home run |
Trubisky never got great help from his staff, but his ill-timed decisions helped accelerate a move to backup jobs elsewhere. Watson once looked like a superstar-in-the-making, and he's still got the tools to be a top-10 pocket passer, but he was Houston's starter for just three and a half seasons, sitting out all of 2021 while seeking a trade and facing dozens of lawsuits for alleged off-field misconduct. Mahomes is already one of the greatest draft picks of all time, racking up three Super Bowl victories, three NFL MVPs and six straight AFC title-game appearances as the league's acrobatic standard-setter under center.
2016
| Pick | Player | Team | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mixed result | ||
2 | Mixed result | ||
26 | Miss |
Goff experienced basically three careers in one with the Rams, opening haplessly amid a rebuild, then showcasing All-Pro precision for Sean McVay's first Super Bowl bid before a regression that led to his Lions relocation. Wentz is a tragic case of what could have been; his 2017 MVP candidacy was truly dynamic and helped pave the way for Nick Foles' ultimate Super Bowl triumph, but post-injuries, he never fully reined in his aggressiveness. Lynch made just four starts in Denver before his exit.
2015
| Pick | Player | Team | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Miss | ||
2 | Miss |
Winston's gung-ho approach doomed him more than it served him; he threw 88 picks in 70 starts before the Buccaneers turned to Tom Brady and instantly won a Super Bowl. Mariota also made it five years with his original club, but he too was happily ushered out by the end, struggling to stay in the lineup while leaning on his legs. Both have since settled in as veteran No. 2s.
2014
| Pick | Player | Team | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
3 | Jaguars | Miss | |
22 | Browns | Miss | |
32 | Miss |
Bortles flirted with legitimacy, throwing 35 TDs in his second season and helping the Jaguars to an AFC title game in 2017, but his aggressiveness led to 75 picks in 73 starts. Manziel flamed out on and off the field after a raucous college career, making just eight frenetic starts over two seasons before his unceremonious exit. Bridgewater is easily the most accomplished of the trio to date, carving out a long run as a journeyman placeholder, but he managed just two safe but wholly unspectacular seasons leaning on Adrian Peterson before a knee injury derailed his future in Minnesota.
2013
| Pick | Player | Team | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
16 | Bills | Miss |
Widely considered the only promising QB of a thin class, Manuel battled injuries and inaccuracy, quickly losing starting duties to both Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor. He went 6-11 making just 17 starts over four seasons before relocating as a backup.
2012
| Pick | Player | Team | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Andrew Luck | Home run | |
2 | Washington | Miss | |
8 | Dolphins | Miss | |
| 22 | Brandon Weeden | Browns | Miss |
As Peyton Manning's successor, Luck was one of the best field generals in the game when active and healthy. Shoulder injuries and his abrupt retirement at age 29 robbed the Colts of a potential Hall of Fame career. But he still led four playoff trips and an AFC title-game appearance with gaudy aerial production. Griffin was a rookie phenom thanks to his smooth scrambling but fizzled quickly after knee injuries, giving way to the more reliable Kirk Cousins. Tannehill revived his career with the Titans, but only after an injury-riddled seven-year slog in Miami. Weeden, who entered at age 28, threw 26 picks in 20 starts over just two seasons with Cleveland.
2011
| Pick | Player | Team | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Panthers | Home run | |
8 | Titans | Miss | |
| 10 | Blaine Gabbert | Jaguars | Miss |
| 12 | Christian Ponder | Vikings | Miss |
Newton could arguably fit into "mixed result," seeing that he was a battered, below-average passer for the latter half of his initial nine-year run with the Panthers. His first five years, however, were game-changing for Carolina, peaking with a 2015 MVP run and Super Bowl bid as a supersized dual threat. Injuries were even harsher to Locker, who never played more than 11 games in a season, and retired after just four years. Gabbert got little protection in Jacksonville and saw his playing time decline in three straight seasons -- his only three with the Jags. Ponder had 36 picks in 36 starts for Minnesota.
2010
| Pick | Player | Team | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rams | Mixed result | |
25 | Broncos | Miss |
Bradford is one of the toughest to separate from his circumstances; injuries behind an awful Rams front wrecked his knees and shortened his St. Louis tenure to three-and-a-half active seasons, but when upright, he was an ascending pocket passer who kept a bad team in the mix. Tebow had real flashes of something special, briefly captivating the league with bulldozing legs and inexplicable late-game heroics, but he never got in rhythm throwing the ball in just two seasons with the Broncos.
2009
| Pick | Player | Team | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Lions | Home run | |
5 | Jets | Mixed result | |
| 17 | Josh Freeman | Buccaneers | Miss |
Stafford could never fully transcend Detroit's shortcomings, requiring a late-career relocation to the all-star Rams to win a title, but he gave the Lions 12 years of mostly above-average gunslinging, eight times eclipsing 4,000 yards. Sanchez got major help from a vaunted Jets defense during his two playoff runs; he was sloppy but occasionally clutch in four years as QB1. Freeman teased top-10 potential as a second-year winner, only to throw 66 picks in 59 starts for the rebuilding Bucs.
Final tally
Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:
| Grade | Total | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Home run | 7 | 15% |
| Solid result | 3 | 6% |
| Mixed result | 9 | 19% |
| Incomplete | 4 | 8% |
| Miss | 23 | 50% |
If you combine home runs and solid/mixed results, that's 19 of 46 (41%) who at least left some level of positive impact. That's not necessarily an awful hit rate, considering the volatility of picks at every position. It's also not great! And it's obviously including a wide range of outcomes; Mark Sanchez and Deshaun Watson, for example, are both mixed results because their success was short-lived in their original homes, and yet the latter was far more productive during his days as a Texans starter.
As you may have guessed, the biggest takeaway is that it's hard to hit on superstars under center, even in the first round. Over the last 15 years, there are an average of three first-round quarterback picks per year. And over that entire span of 15 years, at least according to our rough assessment, only seven quarterbacks total have gone on to become "home runs," and that includes still-growing contemporary signal-callers like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
That said, if you're preparing to go all in for the next hotshot under center, make sure you've done your homework, and/or ensured your future face of the franchise has a foundation that can support him! It's probably not a coincidence that so many quarterbacks end up providing mixed or disappointing results when the teams that draft them often tend to be in dire straits, hence their pathway to a Day 1 draft-day investment at the position. The best-case scenario, as was the case with phenoms like Mahomes, is when a present contender has an opportunity to plan for the future, adding a young prospect to an already-well-supported lineup. But that, of course, is easier said than done.
Otherwise, you may be angling to take another swing at the position in another few years, starting the cycle again.
