The 2023 version of the NFL Draft is finally here, and it all starts today. There are plenty of questions to ponder before Roger Goodell calls out that first pick. One revolves the draft order, as it is sure to change.
We already saw the Carolina Panthers make an aggressive move up the draft board from No. 9 overall to No. 1 overall. What other teams could trade up or down in the first round to target players? Many first-round picks have to do with acquiring quarterbacks, and it's expected we see at least one quarterback-related trade this year. This class features a couple of polarizing signal-callers, so expect fireworks come draft night.
Below, we will break down five NFL teams that are most likely to trade up in the first round, and five teams most likely to trade down.
Teams most likely to trade up
Indianapolis Colts (No. 4 overall)
The Colts are expected to draft their quarterback of the future at No. 4 overall. Unfortunately, they won't have their pick of the litter. The Panthers and Houston Texans are expected to select quarterbacks to start the draft, and then the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 are a prime candidate to trade down (more on that later). Are the Colts really just going to take that fourth quarterback -- whoever it is -- because they need one? That doesn't sound like a great game plan.
Many recent mock drafts have the Colts moving up to No. 3 overall to choose between Anthony Richardson and Will Levis -- which may be better than being forced to take the one quarterback the first three teams pass on. It won't be cheap, but Indy is a team to watch to move up.
Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7 overall)
In my first-round mock draft, it's the Raiders I have moving up to No. 3 overall. Jimmy Garoppolo didn't receive big-time money to join Josh McDaniels in Vegas, and he's not exactly a spring chicken. Coach McDaniels likely doesn't have a long leash, so jumping up to secure the potential stud who could star in Sin City for years to come is something that could happen. It's probably not a possibility the entire fan base is in love with, but it's a possibility nonetheless.
For potential trades the Raiders could make, click here.
Tennessee Titans (No. 11 overall)
The Titans have already reportedly explored trading up to No. 3 overall. Not only does this move make sense with Ryan Tannehill having just one more year remaining on his contract, but new Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort spent the past three seasons as the Titans' director of player personnel. There's some familiarity between these two organizations. New Titans GM Ran Carthon played his college football at the University of Florida. Maybe he's intrigued by Richardson.
Minnesota Vikings (No. 23 overall)
The Vikings are another team that could make the aggressive move up to No. 3 overall, but they are also a candidate to just trade up in the first round. Period. Kirk Cousins is likely entering his final season with Minnesota, and the Vikings could be in the market for one of the top quarterbacks in the draft. Kevin O'Connell is an offensive-minded head coach, and he's not going to risk wasting Justin Jefferson's prime being patient looking for his next franchise quarterback. If Minnesota's front office likes someone in this class, the Vikings could be aggressive.
Additionally, the Vikings at No. 23 overall are also a candidate to make a smaller trade up the draft board. If someone like Levis begins to fall into the teens, or they want to secure Hendon Hooker, the Vikings could make a trade up.
Buffalo Bills (No. 27 overall)
It was a disappointing end to the 2022 season for Buffalo. Despite being the preseason Super Bowl favorite, the Bills couldn't get to the AFC Championship game. The Bills are still one of the best teams in the league, but they need another offensive weapon. ESPN reported last week Buffalo has interest in moving up. Matt Miller believes it could be for an interior offensive lineman or offensive skill player. On a related note, it would be sweet to see Bijan Robinson in this offense.
Teams most likely to trade down
Arizona Cardinals (No. 3 overall)
At No. 3 overall and not in need of a quarterback, the Cardinals are expected to sell their first-round selection for a pretty penny. It's not a guarantee, though. Nothing is when it comes to the draft.
Houston Texans (No. 2 & No. 12 overall)
There are rumors the Texans may not be sold on a quarterback at No. 2 overall, and some mocks even have them trading out of that first pick. While I view that possibility as unlikely, the Texans do hold the No. 12 overall pick as well. Teams with multiple first-round selections are more likely to trade in my opinion. That's especially true for the Texas at No. 12, where another team could move up for a quarterback that has fallen outside of the top 10.
For potential trades the Texans could make, click here.
Seattle Seahawks (No. 5 overall & No. 20 overall)
Here's another team with multiple first-round picks. At No. 20, John Schneider will have some options, but I'm also keeping an eye at No. 5 overall. Sure, the top four quarterbacks could be off the board at this point, but what if they aren't? One QB-needy team could be aggressive and contact Seattle. With 10 total picks, I think the Seahawks could be candidates to trade up or down later this month.
For potential trades the Seahawks could make, click here.
Philadelphia Eagles (No. 10 & No. 30 overall)
Howie Roseman is one of the best general managers in the NFL, and he averages a whopping four trades per year either during the draft or in the days immediately prior. With two first-rounders but just six overall picks, the Eagles are very much live to trade down in my opinion.
For potential trades the Eagles could make, click here.
Detroit Lions (No. 6 & No. 18 overall)
Believe it or not, the Lions are the favorites to win the NFC North in 2023, but they need to upgrade on defense. General manager Brad Holmes has done a solid job adding pieces in free agency, but he's not done yet. I expect Detroit will take a pass rusher or defensive lineman at No. 6 overall, but things could get interesting once we work our way down into the teens.
For potential trades the Lions could make, click here.
