The 2019 NFL Draft may not have the quarterback class we saw a year ago but teams desperate for franchise passers may not have much of a choice. Oregon's Justin Herbert is widely considered the nation's best draft-eligible quarterback but we don't know if he'll leave school or return for another season. The same holds for Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins, who has been impressive during the Buckeyes' 7-0 start, but he's a redshirt sophomore who might prefer to return to Columbus.
But Drew Lock is a senior and he checks all the boxes for what organizations look for in an elite-level passer. The problem is that while Lock looks the part -- and has all the physical tools -- he struggles with consistency. In his first three games of 2018, he threw 11 touchdowns and just one interception and Missouri jumped out to a 3-0 start. In Lock's last three games, he's managed just one touchdown to go along with five picks, and the Tigers are now 3-3.
Will a franchise roll the dice on a player like Lock? History -- both recent and ancient -- says yes. And the more desperate they are the more likely they'll be to take a chance. The Jaguars signed Blake Bortles to an extension in the offseason but he's the exact same player he's been his entire career: Best case, a replacement-level player. The same holds for Ryan Tannehill, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, and was sidelined last Sunday with shoulder injury. For an idea of just how replaceable Tannehill is, Brock Osweiler replaced him in the lineup and the offense was better.
Put another way: Don't be surprised if more quarterbacks go in Round 1 than probably should because demand outstrips supply -- perhaps more this year than in any other in recent memory.
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1. New York Giants
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon. No change at the top. And just like last week, the Giants are coming off a loss and much of the blame -- fairly or not -- rests with 37-year-old Eli Manning. Herbert isn't the best player in this draft, and probably won't be as highly rated as the best passers in last year's draft, but the Giants are left with few options. They need a quarterback and they needed him a year ago.
2. Indianapolis Colts
Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State. The Colts could really use a big-play wide receiver to complement TY Hilton, or even an offensive lineman to protect Andrew Luck as he continues to work his way back from missing the 2017 season with that shoulder injury, but you just can't pass on Bosa here, even if he'll miss most of his final college season with a core muscle injury.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Greedy Williams, CB, LSU. The Cardinals are a terrible football team and it's unclear that will change anytime soon. It sounds like just about everybody could be available with the trade deadline looming and if Patrick Peterson really is shipped out of town, Greedy Williams would be a logical replacement.
4. Oakland Raiders
Ed Oliver, DT, Houston. Oliver can dominate the line of scrimmage and while he's not an edge rusher he's a difference maker that has drawn comparisons to an Aaron Donald-type player. That may be unfair but there's no denying he'd make the Raiders' suspect defense a lot better. Of course, if Oakland continues to lose, and make its way up the draft board, it may have to decide whether taking a quarterback is a more immediate need.
5. San Francisco 49ers
Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama. This is probably too high for a safety but Thompson is a special talent that would immediately transform the backend of San Francisco's defense, a unit that came into Week 6 ranked 10th against the run but 23rd against the pass, according to Football Outsiders.
6. Atlana Falcons
Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama. The Falcons have Jake Matthews at left tackle, and Williams hasn't played right tackle since his freshman season, but he's the most complete offensive lineman in the draft. Given that Matt Ryan has been sacked 17 times in six games, and that the O-line ranks 25th in pass blocking, Williams seems like the perfect fit.
7. Denver Broncos
Quinnen Williams, DL, Alabama. How deep is Alabama's bench? Williams played behind Da'Ron Payne last season and the redshirt sophomore has opened a lot of eyes with his play over the first half of the college season. In related news, the Broncos defense has allowed 593 rushing yards the last two weeks in losses to the Jets and Rams.
8. Buffalo Bills
Yodny Cajuste, OT, West Virginia. The Bills have gotten the most out of their limited roster this season but there's no getting around the reality that the offense line is a liability; the unit ranks 24th in run blocking and dead last in pass protection. Cajuste is an athletic mauler who could be the starter from Day One.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brian Burns, DE, Florida State. The Bucs fired their defensive coordinator this week after the unit allowed 34.6 points per game through five games this season. Tampa Bay's pass rush has "improved" from 32nd in 2017 to 27th with the additions of Vinny Curry and Jason Pierre-Paul but Burns could be a special talent, and one that will immediately earn playing time on a defense that needs help just about everywhere.
10. Detroit Lions
Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State. The Lions' defense has been bad but the offense hasn't been much better. With Golden Tate in the final year of his contract, Detroit gets Matthew Stafford another big play wideout in Harmon, who is the first receiver off the board after it was announced Monday that Ole Miss' D.K. Metcalf would miss the rest of the season with a neck injury that will require surgery.
11. Cleveland Browns
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford. The Browns would love to get a left tackle here but with Williams and Cajuste already off the board, Arega-Whiteside is reminiscent of Mike Williams and would give Baker Mayfield a big downfield target to complement Jarvis Landry and Antonio Callaway.
12. Houston Texans
Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson. Jadeveon Clowney is in the final year of his rookie deal but even if he returns, you can never have enough pass rushers in today's NFL.
13. Dallas Cowboys
Raekwon Davis, DT, Alabama. The Cowboys' defense has improved over a season ago but they're still a replacement-level unit. Davis, who came into 2018 as Alabama's top D-line prospect, has been eclipsed by the emergence of Quinnen Williams, but he remains a disruptive presence in the trenches against both the run and pass.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars
Drew Lock, QB, Missouri. Lock looks like an NFL quarterback but you never know whether he's going to come out throwing lasers all over the field, which he's capable of, or missing wide-open receivers while the offense stalls. But the Jaguars desperately need to upgrade Blake Bortles and this may be a risk worth taking.
15. Philadelphia Eagles
Kris Boyd, CB, Texas. Same as last week. Jalen Mills has had a rough start to the season and Boyd has had an impressive senior season to date. He might be one of the most polished draft-eligible cornerbacks, at least through the midway point of the college calendar.
16. New York Jets
Noah Fant, TE, Iowa. The Jets have the 29th-ranked pass offense and Sam Darnold could use an athletic tight end to patrol the middle of the field.
17. Seattle Seahawks
Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State. Seattle's defensive line ranks 18th against the run and 23rd against the pass. Simmons is one of the most athletic defensive tackles in college football, though there may be some off-field issues that affect his draft stock.
18. Green Bay Packers
Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State. Bryan Bulaga will be entering his 10th season and Risner is solid in both run blocking and pass protection.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama. The only surprise here is that the draft's best middle linebacker makes it all the way to the Steelers, who have been a completely different defense without Ryan Shazier.
20. Miami Dolphins
Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State. It's unclear if Haskins will even declare for the draft but if he's available, the Dolphins should think long and hard about playing him. On Sunday, Brock Osweiler (!) made Dolphins fans forget about Ryan Tannehill and it's fair to say that if Tannehill hasn't put it together in seven seasons it's probably not going to happen.
21. Tennessee Titans
Chris Lindstrom, OG, Boston College. You can probably figure this out; Marcus Mariota was sacked an whopping 11 times on Sunday against the Ravens. Bolstering the offensive line is going to be a priority this offseason.
22. Minnesota Vikings
Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida. After having one of the NFL's best defenses a year ago, this unit has struggled to start the season, especially in the passing game. Finding a tenacious edge rusher can pay immediately dividends and Polite has been damn near unblockable during the first six weeks of the college season.
23. Oakland Raiders (via Bears)
A.J. Brown, WR, Ole Miss. This team could look completely different by next September and adding a pass-catching weapon makes a lot of sense, especially in light of the report that the Raiders would move former first-rounder Amari Cooper for the right price.
24. Cincinnati Bengals
Kaden Smith, TE, Stanford. Tyler Eifert suffered a season-ending injury and while he's expected to be back for the 2019 season, Smith creates matchup problems for both linebackers and safeties tasked with covering him.
25. Washington Redskins
Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina. Can be the most dynamic player on the field and is also a capable return man. The Redskins need a downfield target and Samuel has the ability to stretch the field.
26. Carolina Panthers
Michael Jackson, CB, Miami. Captain Munnerlyn will be 31 in the spring and at 5-9 he's undersized to matchup against bigger NFL receivers. Jackson is 6-1, physical, embraces press coverage and is good blitzing off the edge.
27. Los Angeles Chargers
Devin White, LB, LSU. Denzel Perryman is in the final year of his rookie deal and while White hasn't been as consistent as Mack Wilson this season, he's checks all the boxes for what NFL teams are looking for in their middle linebackers in today's game.
28. Baltimore Ravens
Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan. Is Gary better on the edge or inside? That's one of the questions to be answered in the coming months but the know this: The Ravens would find a way to get the most out of his talents because, well, that's what they do.
29. New England Patriots
Zach Allen, DE, Boston College. The Pats take the local kid to bookend Trey Flowers. Allen is a tenacious high-motor player who would immediately improve a defensive line that ranks near the bottom of the league against both the run and the pass.
30. Green Bay Packers (via Saints)
Jerry Tillery, DL, Notre Dame. The Packers have invested a lot of recent draft picks in shoring up the secondary and now, with their second first-round pick, they try to fix their run defense, which has been suspect through the first half of the season.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia. Steve Nelson is targeted early and often by opposing quarterbacks and if the Chiefs can cobble together a replacement-level defense they're a legit Super Bowl contender.
32. Los Angeles Rams
Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State. The Rams' defensive line ranks 25th in rushing the passer, according to Football Outsiders. Sweat has eight sacks through six games this season.
