The 2018 NFL Draft is over which means teams have done their offseason work in preparation for the 2018 season. The dead period is here; we know a lot about these teams (and yet so little), so the next logical step is for Las Vegas to release over/under win totals for every NFL team. And the step after that is for us to take a microscope to those totals and figure out everything we can about each NFL team.
It's entirely stupid, but guessing which teams will be good and which teams will be bad in May is my favorite thing I do every year. And despite what you might think, I'm OK at it! In fact, if I listened to May me in August, I'd be much better off.
Two years ago I did these by conference (10-5-1 in the AFC, 8-7-1 in the NFC) and last year I did them by division. I was absolutely SCORCHING in the AFC:
AFC East: 3-1
AFC North: 2-1-1
AFC South: 3-0-1
AFC West: 4-0
My best bets from the AFC, in May, were the Chargers over 7.5 (win) and Jets under 5.5 (win, it would later drop to 3.5 but they would go under the original 5.5, just for the record).
The NFC, once again, wasn't quite as good, but still over .500.
NFC East: 3-1
NFC North: 2-2
NFC South: 2-2
NFC West: 2-2
Lost the Cardinals over best bet. Boy that was bad. I did hit the Bears under 5.5 wins as a best bet though, which brings my four best bets to 3-1 overall. Not too shabby.
All told I went 21-9-2 on over/under picks from May last year. WHEW. Again, it would have been helpful if I remembered these thoughts in August. Whatever. This year we're getting even more granular. With the Pick Six Podcast going daily -- 30-ish minutes of NFL news and notes and analysis every morning by 6 a.m., you should subscribe via: via iTunes | via Stitcher | via TuneIn | via Google Play -- and me wanting to fill some space and take some deeper dives on these teams, we're going to have a separate post on every single team's over-under total for the year along with a separate podcast with a guest relating to the team.
This is the landing page for those posts as well as the podcast on each team (although, again, subscribe and you'll get the podcast sent straight to your app every morning). Bookmark this page and come back over the next month or so as we fill out those teams.
If you have thoughts on what you want to hear for a particular team or just general suggestions and complaints, hit me on Twitter @WillBrinson.
NFC East
New York Giants
Giants Win Total Breakdown | Giants Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
That is an extremely low win total for a team being universally praised coming out of the draft; it implies the reworked offensive line with Nate Solder and Will Hernandez will not open up tons of holes for Saquon Barkley and that Eli Manning may be, in fact, old and washed.
2017 Result (9.0): Under
And by a lot! The Giants were terrible and completely fell apart in all facets. They benched Eli for Geno Smith late in the season for no real reason. Everyone was fired.
Washington Redskins
Redskins Win Total Breakdown | Redskins Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total: 7
The Redskins are a really under-appreciated sleeper to hit the over, because swapping in Alex Smith, even in a new offense, gives them a very high floor.
2017 Result (7.5): Under
Offensive line injuries cratered Washington's season and they couldn't hang in the playoff race despite a strong year from Kirk Cousins.
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys Win Total Breakdown | Cowboys Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total: 8.5
A submerged total with the new offense -- now more "Dak Friendly"? -- still very much a question mark and the pass catchers looking like a bunch of newbies. It's a hard team to figure out but the public always leans over here.
2017 Result (9.5): Under
Dallas fought hard to try and make the playoffs, but it was ultimately derailed by a dropoff in offensive line play plus Ezekiel Elliott's lengthy legal battle and suspension.
Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles Win Total Breakdown | Eagles Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total: 10.5
If Carson Wentz comes back healthy for Week 1, 10 wins is the floor, but oddly the juice favors the under here (+120 to the over, which is just a hard number to hit).
2017 Result (8.5): Over
And it wasn't remotely close. The Eagles blasted that number by Thanksgiving.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers Win Total Breakdown | Buccaneers Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
Not a lot of faith in the work Jason Licht has done this offseason, which makes them interesting, because of the talent added on the defensive line through free agency and the draft. If Jameis Winston bounces back, this is a playoff contender.
2017 Result (8.5): Under
Winston didn't take the leap everyone expected and the Bucs were just a bad team on defense for much of the year after an inspiring "Hard Knocks" performance. They did not eat the W often.
Carolina Panthers
Panthers Win Total Breakdown | Panthers Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total: 9
No help on the offensive line for Cam Newton this offseason? No problem, according to Vegas! Carolina is a steady presence in the division, but this might all hinge on how Norv Turner's offense looks in Year One.
2017 Result (9): Over
Carolina came out swinging and won 11 games to nearly secure the division title, but was swept by the Saints last year including a playoff loss in New Orleans.
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons Win Total Breakdown | Falcons Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total: 9
The NFC South is just a tough division, and there are a cluster of teams up top. If this defense makes a leap next year and Calvin Ridley impacts the offense in his first year, Atlanta could be very dangerous. No Super Bowl hangover talk either.
2017 Result (10): Push
When you consider how everyone was rooting against the Falcons and how they stumbled out of the gate, 2017 was a really nice year for Dan Quinn.
New Orleans Saints
Saints Win Total Breakdown | Saints Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 9.5
New Orleans doubled down in the draft and added Marcus Davenport with a first-round trade up that will cost them a future first. They clearly believe they're a player away from a Super Bowl run and Vegas doesn't disagree, although they have a lower total than a lot of the top-shelf contenders in the NFC.
2017 Result (8.5): Over
The defense was magically fixed thanks to Sean Payton and Micky Loomis hitting a grand slam in the draft. Alvin Kamara exploded onto the scene post Adrian Peterson trade and the Saints were one of the most fun teams to watch last year.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Bears Win Total Breakdown | Bears Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
If you listen to the latest episode of the Pick Six Podcast, you know that Nick Kostos and I see the 2018 Chicago Bears as a poor man's version of the 2017 Los Angeles Rams. TBD if we're correct but they've followed the blueprint this offseason.
2017 Result (5.5): Under
The Mike Glennon signing didn't go well from the get-go, and Chicago had to make a midseason trade for Dontrelle Inman to get Mitchell Trubisky a No. 1 target. This was one of my best bets last year and it hit.
Detroit Lions
Lions Win Total Breakdown | Lions Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 8
A lot is up in the air for this team, mainly with Matt Patricia joining as the head coach. There's continuity on the offense and the defense should theoretically be improved so there's upside. This is a tough neighborhood though.
2017 Result (8): Over
Jim Caldwell got canned after a nine-win season that saw him miss the playoffs. His record in Detroit was surprisingly good.
Green Bay Packers
Packers Win Total Breakdown | Packers Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 10
A healthy Aaron Rodgers, even without Jordy Nelson, is probably going to result in at least 10 wins, especially with an improvement in the personnel on defense and an upgrade from Dom Capers to Mike Pettine.
2017 Result (10): Under
Aaron Rodgers wasn't healthy and the defense wasn't that good. Disaster season.
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings Win Total Breakdown | Vikings Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 10
Adding Kirk Cousins means there are heightened expectations; there should be, especially with Dalvin Cook returning from injury and a nasty defense that isn't losing anyone. This is a three-year contending team.
2017 Result (8.5): Over
The Vikings were a team I predicted could "steal the division" -- they didn't steal anything. They walked into the NFC North cafeteria and took everyone's lunch money.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals Win Total Breakdown | Cardinals Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 5.5
There are no expectations this year in a difficult-looking division with the combo of Sam Bradford/Mike Glennon/Josh Rosen behind a bad offensive line. This defense could be sneaky good next year, however.
2017 Result (8): Under
Disaster season for the Cardinals and a nightmare scenario for yours truly, who loved their over and had them winning the Super Bowl. *slinks away like Homer in a bush*
Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks Win Total Breakdown | Seahawks Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 8
Crazy to see the Seahawks considered the third-best team in the division, but they are very much in transition, are rebooting the Legion of Boom and didn't bring in much offensive line help on offense. Vegas is scared and confused on this one, as it should be.
2017 Result (10.5): Under
Everything fell apart for Seattle, which missed the playoffs for the first time since 2011 under Pete Carroll and John Schneider. Russell Wilson ran for his life and the defense suffered tons of injuries.
San Francisco 49ers
49ers Win Total Breakdown | 49ers Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 9
This is obscene and might be completely unreasonable for a team that is probably one year away from being a serious NFC contender. They are the darlings this offseason, though, and have done a nice job adding pieces.
2017 Result (4.5): Over
They would have hit this over just in the games started by Jimmy Garoppolo last year. The 2018 hype might be unreasonable.
Los Angeles Rams
Rams Win Total Breakdown | Rams Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 10
Possibly the NFC favorite after all they've done this offseason, bringing in Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, Ndamukong Suh and Brandin Cooks via free agency and trade. They're slamming the gas while the Super Bowl window is open.
2018 Result (5.5): Over
Smashed this over by a substantial margin, winning 11 games, securing the division and hosting a playoff game. If Seattle is Derek Zoolander, L.A. is Hansel -- so damn hot right now.
AFC East
New York Jets
Jets Win Total Breakdown | Jets Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 6
The future is here with Sam Darnold drafted, but the expectations are still pretty low for New York. I'll set the over/under on Darnold starts at 12.5 and take the over (and lean under on the wins).
2017 Result (5.5): Under
I have 5.5 listed as the over/under from May, but it was actually down to 3.5 by the time August rolled around. You could have middled it if you were so inclined, as they won five games, which was impressive given what was on Todd Bowles' roster.
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins Win Total Breakdown | Dolphins Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 6
The loss of Suh -- along with other veterans -- and the lack of Ryan Tannehill playing in recent years has Vegas bearish on the Dolphins. This is an Adam Gase blue collar squad though.
2017 Result (7.5): Under
Quietly a disastrous season for Miami: no one really talks about it but they were displaced by a hurricane, had a veteran linebacker go AWOL and had an offensive line coach resign over a scandal involving a video of him doing cocaine posted on social media by a Vegas entertainer he met on Craigslist. Say it out loud.
Buffalo Bills
Bills Win Total Breakdown | Bills Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 6.5
The biggest difference in this year's team is the floor at quarterback, which now features AJ McCarron and Josh Allen. Totally unknown situation for Buffalo.
2017 Result (6): Over
Really impressive and borderline underrated coaching job by Sean McDermott to win nine games and make the playoffs despite a serious lack of talent on the roster. These guys are grinders.
New England Patriots
Patriots Win Total Breakdown | Patriots Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 11
This is kind of value for the Patriots, who have not won fewer than 12 games since 2009. If you want to bet on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick falling apart, be my guest.
2017 Result (12.5): Over
They weren't perfect, and weren't even close to it -- losing multiple games at home and fighting reports of tensions between Brady and Belichick -- and they still won 13 games.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Colts Win Total Breakdown | Colts Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 6.5
It all hinges on what Andrew Luck is able to do and no one's seen Luck throw a regular-sized football in almost two years, which should not lend a ton of confidence. If he starts throwing and looks good this number could spike to eight.
2017 Result (9): Under
Goodness gracious. This number cratered down to the 6.5 range once the season got closer and Luck looked like he might not play. It went under regardless, with the Colts winning four games and looking like dead dogs under Chuck Pagano, who was fired.
Tennessee Titans
Titans Win Total Breakdown | Titans Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 8
Slightly lower expectations in Mike Vrabel's first year as people wonder what the ceiling is for Marcus Mariota. I don't think we've seen his best football yet. Quietly, Jon Robinson has built a defense that could do some damage.
2017 Result (9): Push
Weird season where the Titans were capped by a questionable offense, almost fired their coach, made the playoffs, almost fired their coach again, won a playoff game and then actually fired their coach.
Houston Texans
Texans Win Total Breakdown | Texans Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 8.5
Entirely predicated on medical recovery -- if J.J. Watt and Deshaun Watson return from their respective injuries and play 16 games each the Texans will compete for the division title and perhaps more.
2017 Result (8.5): Under
This under looked like a lock out of the gate, then Watson was inserted as starter, began to torch the league and ultimately tore his ACL. It ended up easily hitting as a result.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars Win Total Breakdown | Jaguars Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 9
This should be a popular over, with the Jaguars returning everyone from last year's dominant defense and adding pieces to last year's offense. It's hard to imagine the Jags being a consistent winner but that might be reality now.
2017 Result (6): Over
A laugher here as Jacksonville FINALLY broke out, winning 10 games and a division title. They were a quarter away from a Super Bowl appearance.
AFC North
Cleveland Browns
Browns Win Total Breakdown | Browns Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 5.5
Already on record as saying I like this over (GULP), but there is certainly a much higher floor with the Browns this year thanks to the additions of Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry. It might hinge on when they decide to play Baker Mayfield, their No. 1 overall pick.
2017 Result (4.5): Under
They didn't win a single game last year.
Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals Win Total Breakdown | Bengals Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 7
The Bengals' biggest problem last year was not having an offensive line to protect Andy Dalton -- they went out and addressed that by trading for Cordy Glenn and drafting Billy Price (although the latter is dealing with injury already).
2017 Result (8.5): Under
The year is 2085 and nuclear winter has enveloped the country while zombies and robots roam the planet, trying to snuff out the remaining human life on Earth. Marvin Lewis is still Bengals coach.
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens Win Total Breakdown | Ravens Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 8
The final year as GM for Ozzie Newsome and perhaps the final year as QB for Joe Flacco. It's going to be fascinating to see how this team performs, as it was built to win now and win later in the draft. The specter of Lamar Jackson looms if Flacco starts slow.
2017 Result (9): Push
A last-second Andy Dalton TD pass robbed them off a playoff berth -- give John Harbaugh credit for a surprising nine-win season. The Ravens don't have the high-end offensive personnel to win a ton of games but just won't go away.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers Win Total Breakdown | Steelers Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 10.5
The Steelers don't have any trouble winning a bunch of football games, especially in a watered-down division (albeit one that is better than in recent years). They're loaded on offense; replacing Ryan Shazier by committee is key, though, because the defense fell off last year.
2017 Result (10.5): Over
An incredible season for most teams was an abject disappointment that involved losing home field in the playoffs at the last second and getting blasted by the Jaguars in the playoffs at Heinz Field.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Broncos Win Total Breakdown | Broncos Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 7
John Elway killed the draft and the addition of Bradley Chubb alongside Von Miller is spicy. If they can protect Case Keenum and run the football, this looks like a potential bounce-back team. If not, it could get ugly again on offense.
2017 Result (8.5): Under
See: the second sentence above. The offense was a disaster and the defense couldn't hold up by itself. Football's a team game at the end of the day.
Oakland Raiders
Raiders Win Total Breakdown | Raiders Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 8
Anyone's guess here how this thing plays out with Jon Gruden. The offseason has been wild, man. They could win 10 games and they could win two games and nothing would surprise me.
2017 Result (10): Under
A ridiculous total after an over-inflated 12 wins from 2016 that was a layup of an under last year, when they couldn't win every game at the last second and the offense didn't replicate its success.
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs Win Total Breakdown | Chiefs Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 8.5
This is a slap in the face to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, although I understand why -- the floor is lower now, even if the ceiling is raised for the offense. The defense lost a lot but the offense could be high octane.
2017 Result (9): Over
I actually had the over on this number last year, and it hit despite a miserable middle of the season, because Reid is a great coach and gave up playcalling. It backfired in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers Win Total Breakdown | Chargers Pick Six Podcast Preview
2018 Over/Under Win Total 9
Has Vegas lost its mind? It installed the Chargers as division favorites and has them with the highest win total in the division. Get off my corner VEGAS. There's a lot to like about this team, though, especially with the Derwin James addition and full-time focus on Hunter Henry.
2017 Result (7.5): Over
A 2017 best bet for me, the Chargers took care of it pretty easily despite acting like idiots in the early going of the season. Nine wins when you give away 2-3 of them in September is impressive.
