The player acquisition portion of the offseason is essentially over. After free agency and the draft, teams mostly have their rosters completely filled. Of course, the most intriguing players tend to be the quarterbacks -- none more so than the rookies who are clearly being set up as their respective teams' quarterback of the future.
On that front, we have some news. The sports book Bovada.lv recently set over/under lines for how many games each of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson will start during the 2018 season. Below, we'll take a look at which side of each bet makes most sense to bet.
Baker Mayfield, Browns
Over/Under: 9.5 starts
This is a tough one to gauge. The Browns don't have their bye until Week 10, and they return from that bye with a home game against the Bengals. That seems like a good date to target for Mayfield's debut, considering how often teams like to get their rookie passers two weeks to prepare for their first start. With Tyrod Taylor as good a veteran place-holder as you're likely to find, it doesn't necessarily seem like the Browns offense will be a complete dumpster fire prior to that point, meaning there would not necessarily be a reason to rush Mayfield into the lineup.
But still, these are the Browns we're talking about, and they're coached by Hue Jackson. We saw how Jackson jerked DeShone Kizer around last season. I wouldn't put it past him to do the same thing again -- especially if Cleveland gets off to a poor start, which is well within the realm of possibility. The Browns play the Steelers and Saints in their first two games of the season, and they could easily come out of that stretch at 0-2 with two blowouts on their record. The three games after that are against the Jets, Raiders, and Ravens. Not exactly murderers row. Could Mayfield see the field that early?
Verdict: Under. The Browns traded a third-round pick for Taylor for a reason. They don't want to rush Mayfield before he's 100 percent ready. Barring a disastrous start, the bet here is that they wait until after the bye to get him into the lineup.
Sam Darnold, Jets
Over/Under: 5.5 starts
The Jets are still the Jets so maybe they just start Josh McCown or Teddy Bridgewater all season, but this seems pretty clear-cut. New York has six post-bye games, starting with Week 12 at home against New England. Unless New York plans to either keep Darnold on the bench all year (that would go over super well on the back pages of the New York Post and the Daily News) or give him two road games as the first two starts of his career, this is an obvious over bet. Really, once the Jets get through their Jaguars-Broncos-Colts-Vikings stretch in Weeks 4-7, Darnold could make his debut at any time and I would not be at all surprise.
Verdict: Over. McCown seems extremely unlikely to actually keep these guys in contention and thus keep Darnold off the field. This looks like a Kurt Warner-Eli Manning situation, with the team starting off slowly against a slate of good defenses and the veteran eventually giving way to the highly-drafted rookie around halfway through the year.
Josh Allen, Bills
Over/Under: 10.5 starts
In order for Allen to hit the over here, he'd have to debut in Week 6 against the Texans at the absolute latest. Starting your career on the road against J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus and company does not sound fun. Is it possible he debuts earlier?
Well, the Bills start the season with the Ravens, Chargers, and Vikings. Is that really the kind of environment you want to throw your rookie quarterback into? After what happened with Nathan Peterman against the Chargers last season, I don't think so. That means for Allen to hit the over, he's likely got to start Week 4 in Green Bay, or Week 5 at home against Tennessee -- and then not come out of the lineup the rest of the season.
Verdict: Under. Buffalo seems extremely unlikely to be competing for much of anything at any point this season considering the state of their roster, and it doesn't seem like the best idea to throw Allen to the wolves.
Josh Rosen, Cardinals
Over/Under: 8.5 starts
Is there anyone on the planet who doesn't think Sam Bradford will get injured before he manages to start nine games? (Or that the Cardinals would really start Mike Glennon over Rosen if and when Bradford does get hurt?)
Verdict: Over. Bradford always gets injured.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Over/Under: 0.5 starts
This one is actually really tough. At first blush it seems obvious that Jackson will start at least one game given that the Ravens traded back up into the first round to draft him, but looking beyond the surface makes it less so.
Joe Flacco has not been very good the last few years, but he's also pretty much always been a picture of health. He missed the final six starts of the 2015 season after tearing his knee, but other than that, he has never missed a single start due to injury. The likelihood of him doing so at any point this season seems fairly low.
That means in order for Jackson to get a start, either the Ravens have to be definitively eliminated from the playoff picture prior to the final week of the season, Flacco needs to play so poorly that he simply cannot be on the field anymore, or they need to have their playoff slot wrapped up prior to the final week of the year and he gets a courtesy start, Patrick Mahomes-style. The former scenario seems somewhat unlikely. The AFC is terrible and Baltimore's schedule is not very difficult. And if the Ravens were going to pull Flacco off the field for performance reasons, they probably would have done it while he was stinking up the joint at some point in the last few seasons.
Verdict: Under. Baltimore lets Flacco give it one last shot before turning the reins over the Jackson next season.