The Green Bay Packers don't stink very often. But when they do, it's probably because Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone. Green Bay has only won less than 10 games twice since 2009 and both times, Rodgers was out for a substantial period of time with an injury to one of his shoulders. 

Last season's was to his throwing shoulder and it resulted in the worst season under Mike McCarthy, which resulted in a lot of changes to the Packers this offseason. Gone is Rodgers favorite target Jordy Nelson and Rodgers' quarterback coach Alex Van Pelt. GM Ted Thompson, the conservative architect of the last two decades or so of Packers teams, was replaced by Brian Gutekunst, who immediately became a fan favorite by getting aggressive in free agency (he signed Jimmy Graham) and the draft (he traded a lot and picked up and extra first-round pick next year). 

Also gone? Dom Capers, the exit which probably pleases the most fans. Capers was replaced by Mike Pettine, who was given a lot more weapons, including Muhammad Wilkerson and two early-round picks in cornerbacks Jaire Alexander (first) and Josh Jackson (second). That's back-to-back seasons where Green Bay doubled down on its secondary in the early going. 

Expectations are high once again, because their 2018 NFL win total is set at 10 games. 

Want to know when Aaron Rodgers will sign his new contract? Or how Mike Pettine will improve the defense? Aaron Nagler of PackersNews.com joined Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break down Green Bay's offseason and what 2018 holds. It's a daily dose of football in your podcast app inbox by 6 a.m. to get you right for that commute, gym trip. Subscribe: via iTunes | via Stitcher | via TuneIn | via Google Play

Why They'll Go Over

Aaron Rodgers. That's the easy answer anyway. If Rodgers is playing at an MVP level and is comfortable, the Packers will probably win 12 games. From 2009 through 2014, Green Bay averaged 11.2 wins per season, including a year when Rodgers missed time (and they still made the playoffs somehow, thanks in large part to him coming back in Week 17 and beating the Bears). The last three seasons have seen "just" 27 total wins, with the Packers going under in each of those seasons. Change has a funny way of inspiring NFL quarterbacks though -- look at Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers in recent years as examples of veteran quarterbacks who thrived when forced to undergo shifts in the organization. The Packers are still loaded on offense too. They have Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Jimmy Graham with Rodgers throwing behind a consistent offensive line, plus a running game that came alive last year with Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones. (Ty Montgomery is TBD?) 

Defensively is where this team could really surprise -- Pettine is an underrated coach who could get way more out of this upgraded defense in year one than we saw Capers most of the last three or four seasons. A major bump in overall defensive efficiency (the Packers have not finished top 10 in points allowed since 2010) would dramatically shift the Packers overall standing in the hierarchy. They're currently the second favorite in their own division, potentially providing value. 

Why They'll Go Under

Rodgers gets hurt and this thing is going under more than likely. If he misses substantial time at all, good luck winning more than 8 or 9 games. That's true of lots of teams, though. Graham does not have to be an upgrade over Nelson, and it could take several weeks for the Packers to really get on the same page offensively. If Pettine is not an improvement over Capers or if the defense is not able to take a major step forward, it wouldn't be out of the question for this team to win only nine games or at least push the number.

Early Schedule Analysis 

Four of their first six games before their Week 7 bye are at home, which is excellent news. The only road games are at Washington and at Detroit; 6-0 is very much on the table and anything less than 4-2 would be a disappointment. Out of the bye it's tough, with four of five games on the road -- a home game against the Dolphins is sandwiched between road games against the Rams/Patriots and Seahawks/Vikings. Yeesh. Get through that stretch, though, and it's three of five games to close at home, with road games against the Bears and Jets. It's conceivable the Packers could go 6-0, 1-4, 5-0 at different points in this season. 

What They're Saying

"I think Mike Pettine is the most important offseason addition the Packers made. This is kind of like getting in-his-prime Rex Ryan without the craziness." 

-- Aaron Nagler of PackersNews.com on the Pick Six Podcast talking Packers defense

The Pick

At the very least I think the Packers will go 5-1 and 4-1 in those stretches, which means that if they win one of the middle games, they're getting the over. I don't like taking over that high and I don't like loading up on overs on a single division, but I love how the Packers schedule shapes up for them to open up strong and close out strong. This feels like a bounceback year for Green Bay and 12+ wins. 

VERDICT: OVER