There are some curiosities at the top of the 2018 NFL Draft, with the Giants apparently entrenched in their No. 2 position, despite not wanting to take a quarterback. Dave Gettleman is not a proponent of trading down, or at least never did it while with the Panthers. And he certainly doesn't want to trade down if it means missing out on a blue-chip player.
Meanwhile, the Bills are desperate to trade up to draft a quarterback, and would probably prefer to do so in a manner that moves them ahead of the Jets at No. 3. Certainly getting to or ahead of the Browns' No. 4 pick is a must -- Cleveland could easily auction that pick off when they are on the clock.
The Broncos also linger as a wild card at No. 5. They might want a quarterback, but rumblings indicate John Elway would like to trust the process a little bit and roll with Case Keenum and Paxton Lynch (best of luck to you, sir) plus potentially trade down to acquire more draft capital and build out his roster. He'd live with drafting at No. 5, but there is more value for Denver in a move down.
So how about we throw those three teams in a blender and figure out a way to make everyone happy? That's exactly what Jason La Canfora and I did on the most recent edition of the Pick Six Podcast -- our daily, 30-minute NFL podcast that you can subscribe to here -- while discussing how the top 10 will play out (JLC wrote about that here and it included a trade up by the Patriots for a QB).
You can hear the whole interview below, but it was pretty fascinating how a three-team trade that works for all sides started to sort of materialize out of nothing.
"Maybe there ends up being some sort of three-team trade between Buffalo, Denver and the Giants," La Canfora said. "As I was sort of going through these scenarios, not because I was hearing it, but I was almost like maybe (John) Elway, Gettleman and (Brandon) Beane just sort of get together."
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Ultimately, La Canfora had the Bills trade twice in the first round, going up from No. 12 to No. 5 and then from No. 5 to No. 2.
That got my gears turning, because they all have what each other wants. Let's do the obvious and move around the basic first-round picks. The Bills jump to No. 2 overall, where they can land their quarterback. The Giants move to No. 5, where they are guaranteed one of Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb. And the Broncos move down to No. 12 as the facilitator in this deal.
Figuring out the rest of the compensation isn't that hard either.
Team | Original Pick | New Pick | Trade Value Difference (Points) |
NYG | No. 2 | No. 5 | -900 |
DEN | No. 5 | No. 12 | -500 |
BUF | No. 12 | No. 2 | +1400 |
Obviously the Bills are going to be handing out all of the compensation to get this done. Fortunately they have an extra first-round pick (No. 22, worth 780 points). The Broncos fall the furthest and you could see how they might demand it, but it's hard to see Gettleman moving off of No. 2 without another first-round pick involved.
So let's give him the No. 22 pick and supplement it with a third-round pick, No. 96 (worth 116 points). The Giants would get 896 points in value and slide to a position where, as long as three quarterbacks are taken in the first four picks, they would get Barkley or Chubb. If two quarterbacks are taken, they are guaranteed to get Barkley, Chubb or Nelson. If only one quarterback goes in the first four picks, I will eat a raw turtle, shell and all. The Browns have two of the picks, the Jets traded up for a QB and the whole point of this is the Bills facilitating a trade.
For the Broncos, let's package a second-round pick (No. 53, worth 370 points) and a third-round pick (No. 65, 265 points) from Buffalo and give it to John Elway. That's two additional picks in the top 65 of this draft for sliding back seven spots in the first round, where Elway can still pick up a high-end player, particularly with all the quarterbacks coming off the board.
So here's what the deal would look like:
Bills get No. 2 overall
Giants get No. 5 overall, No. 22 overall, No. 96 overall
Broncos get No. 12 overall, No. 53 overall, No. 65 overall
It almost feels like you could get away with giving the Broncos more and the Giants less because the drop off is steeper. If you wanted to go with this instead, I could buy it:
Bills get No. 2 overall
Giants get No. 5 overall, No. 53 overall, No. 56 overall
Broncos get No. 12 overall, No. 22 overall
But that's 710 points in return for Gettleman and 1,200 points in return for Elway. It's pretty out of whack with what the trade value would suggest. And, again, I don't think Gettleman will move off his spot unless he's getting a sweet deal. And this is a sweet deal for him because he gets the same player but adds two very nice picks to his draft.
For the Broncos, they begin to restock their roster. If they aren't taking a quarterback and aren't dead set on Chubb or Nelson (or Barkley, a less likely pick in my opinion), then it makes a ton of sense.
And for the Bills, they would get second choice of all the quarterbacks, ahead of their division rival Jets. It would cost them their two first-round picks, one second-round pick and two third-round picks. That's a lot to give up, but they would have two picks in the top 56 of the draft and they would come away with a franchise quarterback.
They would also have No. 121, No. 166 and No. 187 to add onto their draft class. For perspective, that's a better haul by the draft numbers than the Eagles walked away with in 2016 after making the Carson Wentz trade up the board.
Getting a quarterback is expensive and the Bills would have done it without sacrificing a future first-round pick. It's a win-win-win situation in what could potentially be the craziest first round we've seen in a long time.
