There are many different ways to build a football team, but at the end of the day, history suggests none of them will result in Super Bowl wins without the right quarterback. It's why teams take big swings on the position in the draft every year, and the 2024 draft won't be any different.
In fact, based on the scuttlebutt months in advance, teams could be even more aggressive this year. By and large, there isn't a lot of faith in the 2025 QB class. While a lot can change between now and then, and I'm confident at least one QB will emerge at the college level next season, teams aren't willing to take that chance. That means there's a high likelihood we'll see teams jockeying for position this year to get their QB now rather than hoping for the best next year.
I approached this latest mock with that in mind. It isn't difficult to figure out what's most likely to happen at No. 1, but afterward? Things could get nuts, so after having only one trade in my last mock, I've got multiple this go-round.
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Listen to the latest episode below!
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 1
Did you hear Justin Fields unfollowed the Bears on Instagram? Fields said he just wanted to eliminate anything work-related from his feed while on vacation, and while I believe him, it seems likely the Bears will be unfollowing him soon. Caleb Williams has flaws, but he makes plays that leave you in awe more often than most QB prospects in recent memory. It'll be hard for the Bears to pass on him.
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Mock Trade from
Washington Commanders
Round 1 - Pick 2
In this scenario, the Commanders had their hearts set on Williams, and once he's off the board, they decide to move down. The Falcons are more than happy to accommodate and swoop in to get the quarterback they hope can lead an offense with plenty of talent. Like every rookie QB, the reigning Heisman winner has kinks to work out, but his talent is enticing.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Yes, the Patriots need a quarterback, but will they pass up on Harrison to get him? Positional value is positional value, but I keep thinking that after two QBs are off the board, is the third QB on your board even close to what Harrison is at receiver? I don't think so, and in this mock, neither do the Patriots.
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Mock Trade from
Arizona Cardinals
Round 1 - Pick 4
Once Drake Maye falls past the Patriots at No. 3, the Vikings scramble to move up and get him. The Cardinals don't mind moving down and adding more picks to build out their roster, and the Vikings add a player in Maye who could prove to be their franchise QB for the next decade.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
I mentioned it in the previous mock, but I believe Jim Harbaugh's first pick with the Chargers will be along the lines of scrimmage. Whether they put him on the left or right, Alt can be a cornerstone for the Chargers offense. There are plenty of good tackles in this class, but Alt is the best out there for my money.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
On the one hand, the Giants may be disappointed to see all these teams move up to grab a QB before they can get one. On the other hand, it leads to Malik Nabers falling directly into their laps. Nabers is a player who will dictate the way opponents are forced to defend your offense.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
I had the Titans trade down in my last mock after a couple of tackles were off the board before their pick, but this time I have them holding firm and drafting Latham. At this stage, Latham is a better pass-blocker than a run-blocker, but he's strong, athletic, and can move.
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Mock Trade from
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1 - Pick 8
Like Latham, Fashanu is a better pass-blocker than run-blocker, but Latham is further ahead in that aspect, so I have him slightly ahead of Fashanu now. That said, I love Olu, an outstanding pass-blocker who is strong enough to hold up against a power rusher and athletic enough to move quickly and counter speed rushers. He also does an excellent job of diagnosing threats pre-snap and adjusting after the snap.
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Mock Trade from
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 9
The Steelers realize Kenny Pickett isn't the answer and don't waste time trying to correct the situation. Arthur Smith is likely to bring a run-heavy offense that relies on play action and tight ends, and that sounds a lot like the offense McCarthy ran at Michigan! McCarthy has a strong arm, diagnoses defenses quickly, and is a good enough athlete to regularly extend drives with his legs. He'd be a good fit here.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
For once, it's the Jets sitting there watching the chaos unfold all around them, only to see the dust settle and decide, "sure, we'll pair Rome Odunze with Garrett Wilson if the rest of you don't want him."
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 11
Nate Wiggins is my top corner in the class. He has the size and athleticism to play the position well, and while that's the most important thing, he also has the winning attitude you need in a defensive player. I'll never forget him chasing down North Carolina's Omarion Hampton to save a touchdown and force a fumble that led to a touchback earlier this season. He was the only person on the field who believed he could make the play, and he did.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Somewhat surprising to get this far before an edge rusher comes off the board, but it's not only because of the QB trade frenzy. It's a reflection of this edge class as well. Turner's best asset is his first step, and his second-best asset may be that he seems to hate every QB on Earth.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Based on what I know of Antonio Pierce, he will enjoy watching Terrion Arnold's tape. He's a corner who plays like a linebacker in the run game but is one of the more intelligent corners I've seen in the last couple of seasons. He just knows where the ball is going to be.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Fuaga is a right tackle, and I don't see him being able to play on the left side, but he's an excellent right tackle prospect. He's a dominant run-blocker who needs to learn how to dial down the aggression when pass-blocking, but that aggression as a run-blocker is very enjoyable to watch. It's certainly more enjoyable than being on the receiving end of it.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
This is a Best Player Available situation. Tight end isn't Indianapolis' biggest need, but Bowers is too good to pass up as the Colts put another intriguing pass-catcher around Anthony Richardson. Also, while Bowers isn't a plus in-line blocker at the moment, that's partially due to him not needing to be one at Georgia. I expect him to improve in that area in the NFL.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Verse has a well-rounded arsenal of pass-rush moves already and has shown the ability to attack from multiple angles. His 2022 tape was much better than his 2023 tape, but he played his best football of 2023 at the end of the year, so I wonder if he was dealing with an injury.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
He's just always there. If it's a run to the perimeter, DeJean sets the edge to force it back inside or blows it up before the play gets that far. In the passing game, he looks more comfortable in zone than man, but he somehow ends up around the ball anyway. Like I said, he's always there.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Mims played right tackle at Georgia but has the ability to play on the left side. My primary concern with Mims is he dealt with injuries during his time with the Bulldogs. Even if they aren't long-term concerns, the lack of reps could mean he's not as Day 1 ready as other tackles in the class, but there's a very high ceiling here.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
He may be named Kool-Aid, but I wouldn't expect him to run through a brick wall any time soon. Not for lack of effort -- he's more than happy to throw his body around -- but due to a lack of overall size that can lead to trouble against bigger, more physical receivers. Still, he can line up on different parts of the field and is smooth in coverage.
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Mock Trade from
Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 1 - Pick 20
Powers-Johnson is one of my favorite players in this class, regardless of position. He's built like a keg and loves nothing more in the world than hitting people. Whether it's at the line of scrimmage, or 20 yards downfield, JPJ takes great pleasure in putting you on your ass. Center was a big problem for the Bears the last couple of seasons. It won't be after this pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
If this mock draft is how it plays out in real life, I won't be surprised if Chop Robinson ends up as the player in this draft everybody looks back on 10 years from now and wonders what the hell the first 20 teams were thinking. He's raw as a pass-rusher, but the quickness, strength and effort are all there, and he's shown an ability to drop into coverage.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Maybe it isn't Mitchell, but I expect the Eagles to address their secondary here. If it is Mitchell, I anticipate him quickly becoming a fan favorite in Philadelphia. He is an aggressive defender who seems personally offended when you don't throw the ball in his direction.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 23
I make no secret of my status as a Johnny Newton fan. There will be concerns about his size, but they don't bother me because he's such a violent and disruptive force on the interior of the defensive line. He understands leverage and how to use his hands to keep blockers off of him.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Maybe Tyron Smith will re-sign with the Cowboys, or maybe he won't. Either way, the Cowboys would be well-served to address their offensive line early in the draft. You will hear about his arm length, but we've seen players with shorter arms succeed at tackle. Fautanu has the feet to make it work and the strength.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Nubin is my top safety in the class right now. He's a good football player. He's not going to run a 4.2-second 40-yard dash or wow you with his vertical leap, but he'll make plays for you on a routine basis. A smart, capable defender who can do a little bit of everything and is likely to emerge as a leader of your defense.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
It looks as though the Bucs will have to replace Mike Evans, and Keon Coleman could fit the bill. He's a beauty-is-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder prospect. The analytics crowd likely won't be that high on him, but he's a tall, long athlete with ball skills and the ability to make contested catches.
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From
Houston Texans
Round 1 - Pick 27
After trading down and adding Nate Wiggins with their first pick, the Cardinals add another player to help revamp their defense. I think Latu is a bit tapped out regarding his overall potential, but his current form is pretty impressive.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
The Bills need somebody on offense to stretch the field vertically to take advantage of Josh Allen's rocket arm and open up lanes for everybody else underneath. Enter Brian Thomas Jr., who is not the most polished receiver but has no problem being very tall, very fast, and catching deep balls. That could be his role early while allowing him time to round out his overall game.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Watch Sainristil's tape and tell me he isn't the kind of player Dan Campbell and the Lions front office will love. The Lions need to add more talent to their secondary, and Sainristil showcases great ball skills and route recognition. He's also going 110% all the time and has a fiery, competitive demeanor.
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Mock Trade from
Baltimore Ravens
Round 1 - Pick 30
After passing up on QB with the No. 3 pick, the Patriots trade up four spots back into the first round to get one. Nix doesn't have elite arm strength but has enough juice to make most throws. He's accurate and a good athlete, but needs to do a better job getting through his progressions.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
An absolute mountain of a tackle at 6-foot-7 and nearly 330 pounds, Guyton is a good athlete with excellent balance and quick feet. However, the one thing that stands out is his ability against stunts and twists. So many college linemen look like they just landed on a new planet when a defense throws a stunt at them, but Guyton never looked rattled or confused in the tape I've seen.
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Round 1 - Pick 32
Chris Jones said he will be back, but the emotions of a victory parade sometimes overwhelm the senses, and a huge contract offer from somewhere else can snap a player out of it. If he does leave, Byron Murphy II will make plenty of sense for the Chiefs in this spot. Plus, every other mock will have the Chiefs taking a receiver here. Why not break up the monotony?
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The 2024 NFL Draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft order and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.
