There's no such thing as a perfect mock draft ... until now!
That's right, you're about to read the most perfect mock you'll see this week and this year.
Perfectly reasonable in terms of rationale, anyway.
Each of the 32 selections (and four trades!) you're about to consume was well thought out. I did my best to put myself in the shoes of each team's decision-maker and make choices based on need and on how contracts were constructed, specifically for older/overpaid players who might need to be replaced by 2023.
And since I'm a Fantasy Football guy first and foremost, I added Fantasy takes for every skill-position player based on where they went in the mock.
Will it be right? Hell no. This is too bad because I think every team got better in this mock draft.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
The Jaguars play in the same division as Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry. Taylor totaled 193 rush yards on 36 carries with a touchdown in two games and Henry piled on 130 yards on 29 carries with three touchdowns in one game. Hutchinson and Travon Walker both have explosive traits as pass rushers, but Hutchinson's track record as a run defender (two missed tackles on runs last season) gives him an edge the Jaguars shouldn't ignore.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
The Lions were third-worst in sacks (30), second-worst in pass rush pressure rate (24.4%) and sixth-worst in average time to pressure (2.58 seconds). As bad as their secondary was, their pass rush needs another piece. Walker's athleticism and diversity to line up all over the place should pay off. His high-motor, high-character traits would mesh perfectly in Dan Campbell's locker room.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
The Texans need help everywhere but if they skip pass rushers at No. 3, they won't see anyone quite as good at No. 13. Thibodeaux should work nicely as a 4-3 defensive end in Lovie Smith's scheme that relies heavily on up-front pressure. It helps that Thibodeaux had a pass rush pressure on 16.1% of his rush snaps and 19 sacks in 32 games. Plus he has experience in a 4-3 scheme and is a solid run tackler.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Gang Green has significant pass rush issues, but potential shut-down corners at over 6-foot-2 and with 33 1/2-inch arms and 4.41 speed aren't easy to come by. Gardner's arrival should help the Jets take more chances with the blitz. His rep as a cornerback who didn't give up a touchdown in college will get tested, but it's more than lip service to say he can be a quality starter for a long time.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Don Martindale's new defense will put a premium on suffocating quarterbacks, and with their NFC East foes losing starting linemen or getting older (or both in the case of Dallas), the Giants need to take advantage. Plus, in this mock, they can pass up on O-line help knowing they can probably get someone they love at No. 7. Johnson could use some coaching but is also aggressive and very athletic. The Giants had the second-worst average time to pressure quarterbacks last year at 2.63 seconds and accumulated a below-average 34 sacks.
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Mock Trade from
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 6
The Steelers give up 20th overall, 84th overall and their first-round pick in 2023 to the Panthers for sixth overall. Every year, the Steelers are the least tight-lipped team over who they want in Round 1, and every year they get who they say they want. They'll have to move way up to pull that trick off this year, and they'll have to overpay according to the trade charts. But they get the quarterback they reportedly covet -- a big-armed, mobile future star in the suddenly-stocked AFC North. Fantasy impact: Willis has the most upside of any quarterback in the draft thanks to his rushing prowess, and the Steelers coaches should get him in position to take over the lead gig by 2023. It's a terrific landing spot with potential for eventual top-12 stature. In Pittsburgh, Willis would be a trendy-ish mid-round pick in Superflex and two-QB seasonal leagues, a sure-fire top-12 pick in one-QB rookie-only formats and a potential top overall choice in Superflex/two-QB dynasty rookie drafts.
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From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 7
Plenty of mock drafts have linked the Giants to Charles Cross, but I would be shocked if they would pass on Ekwonu if he fell this far. He's versatile enough to line up anywhere but center and is a fantastic combination of power and agility. With this pick, the Giants would have four new starters on the O-line, a true rebuild.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
The Falcons need stud players, period. They have too many needs otherwise and can't splurge on a quarterback. I don't doubt that teams would call them trying to move up to take a quarterback or an offensive lineman, but they could use one themselves with the right side of their O-line set to enter free agency. Neal is among the safest picks in the draft and provides a piece of long-term stability for the offense.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 9
Cross is either the last or second-to-last top-tier tackle remaining, and the Seahawks have an obvious need at left tackle. What Cross lacks in terms of run-power he makes up for in pass protection. Plus the Seahawks zone-run scheme fits Cross nicely.
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From
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 - Pick 10
The Jets pick up a safety who should start for them for the next 10 years and will be an integral piece of Saleh's defense. A three-time All-American, Hamilton covers the field quickly and has excellent instincts. He's a terrific fit not only for the scheme but for a division that has up-and-coming offenses.
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Mock Trade from
Washington Commanders
Round 1 - Pick 11
The Ravens give 14th overall, 100th overall and 119th overall to the Commanders for 11th overall. Stingley's a terrific man-coverage corner with very good speed. He would give the Ravens a heck of a trio at cornerback this year while also giving them some protection in case Marcus Peters isn't re-signed before 2023. And Baltimore (and everyone) knows they'd have to step in front of the Vikings to get Stingley since his defensive coordinator last year at LSU, Daronte Jones, now runs that part of the Vikings defense. Plus the Ravens have five fourth-round picks, so they can spend some to move up to get someone they love who slips.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 12
The Panthers give 20th and 84th overall -- both from the Steelers mock trade -- and their own 2023 third-round pick to move up the Vikings for 12th overall. Panthers GM Scott Fitterer finagles the quarterback they might have taken at No. 6 and hangs on to a future first-round pick acquired earlier in this mock. They fill their greatest need with a passer whom Matt Rhule has been familiar with for over five years and should get a chance to start right away. Fantasy impact: Pickett is the most NFL-ready passer in this draft and is capable of being more than a distributor for the Panthers' receivers. His built-in mobility would serve him well playing behind a poor offensive line. While it's no guarantee he will ever be a must-start Fantasy quarterback in one-QB leagues, he could develop into a comfortable Superflex option.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 13
Lovie Smith's known for playing a zone-heavy defense, but last year he was in the bottom-half of the league in zone snaps played. He's branching out into being less predictable, and one of McDuffie's selling points is that he can thrive in man or zone coverage. Of course, his biggest selling point is his speed and football savvy, even if he's a little undersized.
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Mock Trade from
Baltimore Ravens
Round 1 - Pick 14
The Commanders need a big receiver to complement Terry McLaurin. They also need a receiver just in case they can't wrangle a new deal with McLaurin after this year. Additionally, it's been big dudes like London who have garnered a lot of attention from Carson Wentz through the years. His 6-foot-4 frame will create mismatches on a fairly regular basis. Fantasy impact: London isn't a speed demon like most of the other first-round receivers in the draft, so he'll need plenty of targets in order to deliver good Fantasy results. In Washington, London could end up being a No. 3 option by Halloween by virtue of Wentz learning to lean on him on short and intermediate routes. He'll get picked around Round 9 or 10 in redrafts, a bit higher in long-term keeper-league startups, and with a choice between third and eighth overall in rookie-only formats depending on how many quarterbacks you can start.
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From
Miami Dolphins
Round 1 - Pick 15
The Eagles can't help themselves and draft another receiver in Round 1. Williams' speed is obvious, but his height and potential to develop into a complete player give the Birds something they don't quite have on the roster. Teams won't be able to hone in on the Eagles run game once Williams hits the field, either. It's a great fit. Fantasy impact: Managers will love Williams but not love that he's catching balls from Jalen Hurts. That might be short-term, however. We'll see. Nick Sirianni is a wide receiver specialist and could really improve Williams' game. I suspect he won't be as popular in seasonal formats (Round 10) if he were to land in Philly, but he'd get more love in long-term keeper-league startups (Round 8-9) and in rookie-only drafts (anywhere from third to sixth overall).
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From
Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 - Pick 16
I think the Saints traded for an extra first-round pick for a quarterback, but in this mock the top two guys are already gone and the next-best passers should be there at 19th overall (if they choose to take one). Penning is a 6-foot-7 behemoth with excellent traits. He needs a little refinement to his game but should be a staple on the line for a long time. New Orleans is no stranger to taking O-linemen in Round 1 and figure to do the same if Penning falls this far.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
The Chargers addressed their D-line in free agency, but they need to start building long-term solutions to their run defense woes. Wyatt is a behemoth who attacks the run and powers through on passing downs. Matching him up with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and the rest of their front just makes them all the more dangerous.
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From
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 18
The Eagles have diligently addressed their offensive line year after year and are getting older on both sides of the trenches. Johnson is large, smart, durable and experienced playing everywhere on the line. The pick helps now and well into the future.
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Mock Trade from
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 19
The Packers give up 22nd overall and 92nd overall to the Saints for 19th overall and 161st overall. The Packers finally take a wide receiver in Round 1, and it happens to be one with some of the most polished feet and hands in the class. A near-copy of Calvin Ridley, Wilson should be able to adapt to the Packers offense quickly and use his quick-twitch separation to rack up numbers. Fantasy impact: Everyone would likely view Wilson as the consensus top rookie receiver in Fantasy drafts if he was linked to Aaron Rodgers. The potential would be there for him to finish as a No. 3 wideout as soon as this season. That would put him into Round 8 (maybe late Round 7) in redrafts. He'd definitely make Round 7 in long-term start-up drafts, and he'd be a lock top-five pick in rookie-only drafts (potentially second overall in one-QB leagues).
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Mock Trade from
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 20
Davis should slide right in as a starting nose tackle in the Vikings' new 3-4 scheme. He won't necessarily be asked to rush the quarterback and can do much more as a massive space-eater for his rookie year. Coaching from a stabilized staff should give him the upside to become dominant by the end of next season.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
The Patriots refill a guard spot with an almost-NFL-ready lineman who has experience playing across the line but especially at guard. He needs some coaching to overcome the penalties he's drawn, but he's a two-time consensus All-American with the size (6-foot-4, 323 pounds) Bill Belichick likes along his line.
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Mock Trade from
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 22
The Saints didn't give up a valuable first-round pick in next year's loaded draft to not take a quarterback this year. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael spent the majority of his career with Drew Brees, an undersized but strong-armed slinger. Corral has both of those traits, displayed good accuracy on short throws and has mobility that gives him an additional way to make plays. He definitely needs coaching when it comes to understanding offenses beyond RPO and manipulating defensive backs, but with a year to sit behind Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton, Corral should develop into a good starter. Fantasy impact: No one would draft Corral if he spent the 2021 season on the Saints bench except in leagues where looking ahead matters. He'd be a double-digit round selection in long-term startup formats and a pick after 15th overall in rookie-only drafts, unless we're talking Superflex/two-QB, which would probably push him closer to 10th.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
The Cardinals have been in the bottom half of the league in average throw depth since Kyler Murray arrived (7.77 yards or lower). They'll take deep shots but their offense hinges on receivers making plays after the catch. Burks did that constantly at Arkansas, frequently lining up toward the middle of the formation (slot, backfield) and then making all sorts of plays after catching the ball, usually by bullying over defenders. He's a plus-sized Deebo Samuel who's perfect for the Cardinals offense and capable of helping Murray out in the red zone, where he's struggled for years. Fantasy impact: Fantasy managers would love Burks in Arizona because he'd figure to snare plenty of short-range targets and adapt to the offense pretty quickly. It wouldn't feel too risky to take him by 80th overall in PPR redraft leagues. He'd go in about the same range in long-term keeper startups, maybe a little sooner. He'd also be among the first six picks in rookie-only drafts.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
The Cowboys most pressing need just might be at receiver. And like when they took CeeDee Lamb in 2020, here's a quality wideout staring them in the face. Olave is a fluid, fast route-runner who should be able to seamlessly replace Amari Cooper in terms of getting open. He may not be able to replicate Cooper's after-catch ability because he hasn't proven to be physical, but that could change. Ultimately, Dallas' offense should remain dangerous, especially to their NFC East foes who all have cornerback concerns. Fantasy impact: Olave could simply fall into Cooper's 6.9 targets per game and rapidly become one of Fantasy's best Draft Day bargains. He'd be up there as one of the top rookie receivers in redraft, worth taking before the end of Round 8. In long-term keeper leagues he'd go at least one round higher. And in those rookie-only drafts, he'd contend for a top-five overall choice, especially if we're talking about a one-QB league.
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Mock Trade from
Buffalo Bills
Round 1 - Pick 25
The Chiefs give up 30th overall and 94th overall to the Bills for 25th overall. Chris Jones and Frank Clark each have two years left on their deals and each will be at least in their age-29 season by 2023. Karlaftis adds some much-needed youth to the defensive front, along with some flexibility since he's got the quick first step to attack when used on passing downs from the defensive interior.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
The Titans need big people on offense and defense, and there aren't a lot of good D-linemen left. So taking Jones, who is NFL-ready as a run-down defender, makes sense. Jones needs work rushing the quarterback but the Titans don't quite need him ready for that as long as Jeffrey Simmons, Denico Autry and Harold Landry are upright.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
One of the best defensive players falls into the lap of the Super Bowl contending Bucs because of the position he plays. Lloyd is the prototypical sideline-to-sideline linebacker who can also cover. He's a terrific scheme fit for the Bucs and will be tailored to ultimately replace Lavonte David, who turns 33 next year when his contract voids.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
The Packers pick up a seamless fit at center with Linderbaum, who's a back-to-back All-American and NFL-ready center. The move frees up the Packers to create competition at guard between Josh Myers and Jake Hanson, assuming they don't add another big man along the way.
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From
Miami Dolphins
Round 1 - Pick 29
The Chiefs brought in Marquez Valdes-Scantling and still have Mecole Hardman on the roster, but Dotson is best suited to replace Tyreek Hill as their big-play threat. Thing is, Dotson is more NFL-ready than Hill was when the Chiefs drafted him. He's got great hands and crafty route-running chops on top of break-neck speed. Fantasy Impact: There will be a lot of hype around Dotson since he landed with Patrick Mahomes, and if he proves it in the preseason then there won't be much anyone can do to stop him from being the first or second rookie receiver taken. He'd be a Round 8 pick in that case in redraft, maybe even higher in long-term keeper start-ups. And he'd also contend for top-five status in one-QB rookie only-drafts and top-seven in Superflex/two-QB drafts.
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Mock Trade from
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 30
Jordan Poyer is in the final year of his deal and Micah Hyde has a year longer left on his. Cine is a choice with the future in mind for Buffalo, but he's also someone who could help this year as a box safety on run-downs to help take snaps off of Hyde, who struggled in run defense last year.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
At 6-foot-6 and 280 pounds, Hall will give the Bengals some serious versatility on the D-line as he lined up all over the place at Houston. Ultimately the move will give the Bengals some much needed depth to get after the quarterback.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 32
 
Daxton Hill
S
Michigan
• Jr
• 6'0"
/ 195 lbs
See? The Lions drafted a Michigan product after all -- and a smart one with good speed. Hill figures to start right away at safety and can drop down to cover slot receivers as well. His NFL-ready game is much needed.
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