In what could be a preview of the Western Conference Finals, the Houston Rockets host the defending champion Golden State Warriors in a must-see matchup on Wednesday night. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. The Rockets (42-25) have won nine straight and have climbed all the way to the No. 3 seed in the West. They have their sights set on No. 2 seed Denver (44-22) and, with a win over the Warriors, would pull within three games in the loss column of the champs. Meanwhile, Golden State (45-21) has lost four of its last six games and will have to play without star forward Kevin Durant, who sprained his right ankle Sunday in a loss to the Suns. Houston is favored by four points in the latest Rockets vs. Warriors odds after the line opened at two, while the over-under for total points scored is 228. Before making any Rockets vs. Warriors picks of your own, be sure to check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 22 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 240-187 record on all top-rated picks, returning almost $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 22 on a strong 54-42 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has locked in on Warriors vs. Rockets. We can tell you it is leading Over, and it has an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.

The model has considered Houston's success against Golden State. The Rockets have won five of the last six regular season games against the Warriors, including all three this season. And only one game was particularly close. In fact, Houston's average margin of victory against Golden State this season is 9.3 points. 

James Harden continues his push for a second straight NBA MVP award, averaging 36.2 points, 7.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds. Though his 30-point scoring streak ended at 32 games, having Chris Paul and Clint Capela back in the lineup has helped ease the burden on Harden and improve the team as a whole. Houston is nearly even against the spread this season, whereas Golden State is a dismal 26-39.

But just because Houston has had success against the Warriors this season does not guarantee that it will cover the Warriors vs. Rockets spread on Wednesday. 

Golden State leads the league in scoring (118.2 points), field-goal percentage (48.8), assists (29.2) and blocks (6.5). Sharpshooting guard Stephen Curry has been especially deadly against the Rockets this season, averaging 30.0 points, 6.5 assists, 6.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals. Meanwhile, fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson has scored at least 20 points in six straight games.

Just one game ahead of Denver for the top seed in West, Golden State still has incentive to play well before the playoffs. And the 2018 Western Conference finals showed what a motivated Warriors team can do against Houston. 

So who wins Warriors vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Rockets spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $4,000 on its NBA picks, and find out.