First place in the Western Conference is at stake on Tuesday night as the Golden State Warriors host the Denver Nuggets. Tipoff is at 10:30 p.m. ET from Oracle Arena in Oakland. With a win, the first-place Warriors (52-24) can take the season series from Denver and gain the inside track to the top spot in the NBA playoff bracket. The Warriors have taken the last two meetings by 48 combined points, but a win by the Nuggets (51-25) would tie the season series at 2-2 and give Denver a viable chance to run down Golden State for the No. 1 position as the regular season heads into the stretch run. Golden State is an 8.5-point favorite and the over-under for total points scored is 220 in the latest Warriors vs. Nuggets odds, down two from the opener. Before you lock in any Warriors vs. Nuggets picks, listen to what the SportsLine projection model has to say.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 25 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 277-216 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 25 on a strong 69-52 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now it has analyzed all relevant data and crunched the numbers for Nuggets vs. Warriors. We can tell you it's leaning over, but it also has a strong point-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. That pick is only available at SportsLine.
The model knows the Warriors, despite bouts of inconsistency, have saved their best performances for upper-tier competition and will be eager to notch another signature win Tuesday night.
Golden State lost the first matchup of the season at Denver by two, but has won the last two clashes with the Nuggets by 48 combined points. In a 122-105 victory on March 8, Klay Thompson returned from a knee injury to score 39 points on the strength of nine three-pointers. Kevin Durant scored 26 points and Steph Curry added 17 as the Warriors built a 17-point halftime lead and were never threatened. Golden State held Denver to 37.9 percent shooting and forced 19 turnovers.
But just because the Warriors have dominated the last two meetings doesn't mean they'll cover the Warriors vs. Nuggets spread on Tuesday.
The Nuggets have a size advantage inside against Golden State and would be well served by getting work done in the paint. Golden State yields 24.5 free throws per game in large part because of its lack of a consistent rim defender. Denver has averaged just 15.3 free throws over its past three games, down from a season average of 20.9.
Despite their recent struggles, the Nuggets are still 7-3 in their last 10 games and winning Tuesday would be a significant milestone. With a 2-2 season series, the next tiebreaker is conference record, where Denver currently holds an edge at 31-15 to Golden State's 31-16. This could be crucial because Denver's following four games all come against playoff-bound teams.
Who wins Nuggets vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Nuggets vs. Warriors spread you should be all over Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
