The Golden State Warriors (2-2) will try to bounce back from a blowout loss to Phoenix when they host the Miami Heat (2-3) on Thursday night. Golden State trailed by eight points at the end of the first quarter and never led again in the 134-105 loss to the Suns. Miami has won two of its last three games, including a 119-98 win at Portland on Wednesday night.
Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET. Golden State is favored by 6.5 points in the latest Warriors vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 227. Before entering any Heat vs. Warriors picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four seasons. The model enters Week 2 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 91-63 roll on all top-rated NBA picks that dates back to last season, returning more than $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Warriors vs. Heat:
- Warriors vs. Heat spread: Warriors -6.5
- Warriors vs. Heat over/under: 227 points
- Warriors vs. Heat money line: Golden State -260, Miami +210
- Warriors vs. Heat picks: See picks here
Why the Warriors can cover
Golden State is coming off a rare blowout loss, so the Warriors are going to be motivated heading into this contest. Veteran Klay Thompson was ejected for the first time in his career after getting into a verbal altercation with Devin Booker in the third quarter of Tuesday's loss. Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green all sat out the last time the Warriors faced the Heat, but Golden State still completed the season-series sweep in Miami last March with a 118-104 win.
The Warriors have now had a day off to recover mentally and physically from their loss to Phoenix, while Miami is playing in its first road back-to-back this season. The Heat will be trying to slow down Curry, who is averaging 30.3 points and 5.3 assists per game. Miami has already suffered losses to Chicago, Boston and Toronto, so the Heat have not proven that they are up for this type of challenge.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami might be on the backend of a road back-to-back for the first time this season, but the Heat picked up a 112-109 win against Toronto in the second game of a home back-to-back last weekend. They are facing a Golden State team that is coming off an emotional blowout loss to Phoenix that could result in a hangover coming into this game. The Warriors lost several key reserves from last year's team, and their young backups have not been able to get the job done so far this season.
James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Jordan Poole all rank among the bottom 11 in the NBA in plus/minus. Miami has a balanced lineup that is led by Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, who are combining for more than 40 points per game. The Heat have covered the spread in six of their last eight games against Golden State, and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games overall.
How to make Heat vs. Warriors picks
The model has simulated Warriors vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
