Christmas is one of the hallmark days on the NBA calendar each season and, in 2020-21, it also doubles as part of the league's opening week festivities. As part of a quintuple-header on 2020 NBA Christmas Day, the Milwaukee Bucks will host the Golden State Warriors in a matinee matchup. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and the Bucks will look to bounce back from a one-point loss in their season opener. In contrast, Stephen Curry and the Warriors will aim to avenge a blowout defeat in their first game. Draymond Green (foot) will miss this one for Golden State.
Tipoff for is set for 2:30 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a 10.5-point home favorite, up three points from the opening line. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 230.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Bucks odds. Before making any Bucks vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two seasons. Last year, it went a stunning 61-33 on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Warriors. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Warriors vs. Bucks:
- Warriors vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -10.5
- Warriors vs. Bucks over-under: 230.5 points
- Warriors vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -650, Warriors +475
- GS: Warriors are 11-12 against the spread in the last 23 games against the Eastern Conference
- MIL: Bucks are 12-17 against the spread in the last 29 games against the Western Conference
Why the Warriors can cover
The Warriors struggled in their season-opening loss to Brooklyn, but Golden State did flash a couple of encouraging signs. The Warriors created a turnover on almost 20 percent of possessions, and they also attacked the offensive glass at an above-average rate. From there, the Bucks have a few weaknesses to potentially exploit, especially if the 2019-20 season is any indication.
Milwaukee was a poor offensive rebounding team last season, grabbing just 22.6 percent of available rebounds after its own missed shots, and the Bucks were also very conservative defensively. Mike Budenholzer's team generated a turnover on only 13.4 percent of possessions in 2019-20, and the Warriors will need to protect the ball to have a chance in this matchup.
Why the Bucks can cover
The Bucks weren't able to pick up a win against the Celtics in their opener, but Milwaukee returns a strong roster that performed at a high level in 2019-20. Antetokounmpo is the reigning NBA MVP, averaging 29.5 points, 13.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game with elite defensive impact last season. Middleton produced 20.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game, operating with elite efficiency as a shooter.
The Bucks were also the best defensive team in the NBA last season by a wide margin, leading the league in shooting efficiency allowed, defensive rebounding and points allowed per possession.
How to make Warriors vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with Antetokounmpo and Andrew Wiggins projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages from 2019-20. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Bucks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Warriors vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
