For a team that went .500 last season, the Houston Rockets' sheer talent is staggering. Their starting center, Alperen Sengun, is a 22-year-old Nikola Jokic disciple who demands double-teams in the post, and he's not even one of the potential stars they selected with top-four picks in the last four drafts. Jalen Green, the hyper-athletic bucket-getter drafted No. 2 in 2021, averaged 29.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.3 steals while making 42.2% of his 3s on 10.3 attempts per game in a 15-game stretch toward the end of last season. Jabari Smith Jr., the No. 3 pick in 2022, is a switchable big with a smooth shooting stroke. I don't know what in the world 2024 No. 4 pick Amen Thompson is going to be, but I think he's going to be incredible. Reed Sheppard, drafted No. 3 this past June, is the best shooting prospect since Stephen Curry.
And there's more! Fred VanVleet, the former All-Star they signed in free agency last summer, was their most irreplaceable player last season. Between the 28-year-old Dillon Brooks, the 23-year-old Tari Eason, the 20-year-old Cam Whitmore and the 29-year-old Jae'Sean Tate, Houston has a ton of size and strength at the forward spots. Steven Adams, acquired at least year's deadline, is healthy and available, and, with Jeff Green and Jock Landale returning, there's no shortage of frontcourt depth. Unlike, say, the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Rockets have not seen any of their young players establish themselves as an MVP candidate, but, in time, there's a chance that several of them will turn out to be special.
Houston is not, however, simply biding its time. When the team signed VanVleet and Brooks and hired coach Ime Udoka in the summer of 2023, the team signaled that it was serious about winning … or at least about establishing winning habits. It's unclear exactly how much pressure the Rockets are under to make the playoffs -- no easy feat in the West -- but it's worth remembering that ESPN reported they wanted to trade for Kevin Durant in June. This has been one of the most fascinating team-building experiments the league has seen, and there are still so many ways it could play out.
The state of play
Last year: In the Rockets' first 12 games, they sandwiched a six-game winning streak between two three-game losing streaks. That turned out to be a microcosm of the season, as they finished 41-41 (No. 20 on offense, No. 10 on defense), a massive jump after winning 21% of their games in the three preceding seasons. VanVleet and Brooks set the tone defensively, Sengun was in the All-Star conversation, Green looked awesome in March (but not as much in April) and Thompson was sort of mind-blowing as a rookie (despite poor 3-point shooting), particularly when functioning as a big man while Sengun was hurt. Houston didn't make the playoffs, or even the play-in, but it made a statement: It's not messing around anymore.
The offseason: Just before the draft, they added to their stockpile of picks by making a trade with the Nets that effectively shifted their bet on Brooklyn's downfall to a bet on Phoenix's downfall. They didn't end up using the picks they acquired to get Durant (or make any other "major upgrade"), but the guy they drafted could end up being the upgrade that's best for them anyway. Sheppard immediately looked too good for summer league, and, in the annual GM survey, he was easily the most popular pick for "Who will win the 2024-25 Rookie of the Year?" and "Which rookie will be the best player in five years?" They also signed Sengun to a sub-max extension (five years, $185 million with a player optin on Year 5), signed Green to an unconventional extension (three years, $106 million with a player option on Year 3), re-signed Aaron Holiday using the bi-annual exception (two years, $9.6 million with a team option on Year 2) and, sadly, elected not to re-sign Boban Marjanovic. (Marjanovic is now playing in Turkey.)
Best case for 2024-25: Sheppard becomes the first rookie since Ben Gordon to win 6MOY and the first ever to also take home ROY; on the strength of improved 3-point shooting from Sengun, Green and Smith, the Rockets' offense leapfrogs their defense and and they essentially make the same jump that the Thunder did last season, which, predictably, makes Udoka the unanimous COY.
Worst case 2024-25: The young talent is more impressive on paper than on the court, and it is difficult to separate the Rockets' poor on-court chemistry (and their record, which hovers around .500 all season) from their well-documented friction behind the scenes.
The conversation
Rockets believer: Are people ready for the Rockets? Like, really ready? I feel like some nerds are into the idea of this team, but, even to more-than-casual fans, they've flown under the radar somehow. Let me be as clear as possible: There has never been a team like this in the history of the NBA. It's like they reunited a Team USA U19 squad from a few years ago, threw in a Turkish bully who loves behind-the-back passes and then recruited a few of the toughest dudes in the NBA to protect them. All I want to do right now is watch Amen Thompson play basketball. In fact, if I were a running any rebuilding team except the San Antonio Spurs, I'd gladly trade my entire roster for a chance to build around him and Reed Sheppard. In Houston, those guys are just the second-unit backcourt! Give the front office credit, please.
Rockets skeptic: You sound a little deranged, but, honestly, I can't argue with most of what you said. In terms of the number of recent, high-upside draft picks on the roster, this is unprecedented. The Rockets were unwatchable for a full three years, of course, but now they're reaping the benefits of all that terrible basketball. I'm not sure how much "credit" they deserve for drafting Alperun Sengun and Cam Whitmore well below where most draftniks ranked them, but, hey, other teams could have done the same thing and didn't. My only concern, really, is that this sort of talent accumulation might be unprecedented for good reason. How many prospects one team develop at the same time? Even with a big development staff, playing time is a scarce resource, as are touches and shot attempts. I don't think Ime Udoka's job is going to be easy, and I don't think it's a coincidence that Green and Thompson's played their best basketball last season when Sengun was sidelined.
Rockets believer: I love this "concern," especially in contrast to all of the concerns about the Rockets before last season. Call me old-school, but I think it'll be good for Sheppard that he'll have to actually earn his minutes instead of having them handed to him. I think it'll be good for him to play in games of consequence right away. I wish that Green had played on a team like this as a rookie, rather than running around jacking shots for a 20-win team. I suppose I feel a tiny bit of sympathy for Udoka, as minutes distribution will be a challenge, but this is an awesome gig! The guy I feel terrible for is Stephen Silas.
Rockets skeptic: I mean, anyone can see that the Rockets are in a better place than they were when Silas was around. The weird thing, though, is that there's such little clarity about where this rebuild is going. Even though Sengun and Green just signed contract extensions, I'm not 100% sure that either of them is going to be in Houston for the long haul. I know Udoka is serious about defense, I liked how the team functioned without Sengun late last season and you clearly don't need me to explain the appeal of a Sheppard-Thompson backcourt.
Rockets believer: I'm pretty close to 100% sure, that Sengun isn't going anywhere, but whatever, let's say you're right. Let's say that Rafael Stone's front office is more than open to trading both him and Green down the road. So what? This season is about discovery. It's about internal competition. The Rockets should be honest about the fact that they can't see the future, and they should be focused on trying to find lineups and combinations that work. Eventually, if somebody doesn't fit, it'll be clear, just like it was with the Thunder and Josh Giddey.
Rockets skeptic: Is the season about discovery or is it about taking a big step forward as fast as possible? The Rockets desperately wanted to make the playoffs last year, and, judging by the KD rumors last summer, they're at least open to trading some of their young talent for a short-term gambit. Don't get it twisted, I love their talent! They're not in a bad situation. All I said was that they're in a weird situation, and I think that's indisputable. The whole thing makes me think of Victor Oladipo looking back at his time in Orlando and saying, "It was almost like we were in battle against each other when we played, instead of trying to work together to try to get a win." Houston is obviously better than that rebuilding Magic team, but it is similar because there's not a natural hierarchy among the young guys. This situation is a bit stranger, too, because there's an urgency to win. It's one thing for the Celtics to ask Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to sacrifice touches; it's another thing entirely to that of ask a bunch of guys who are trying to establish themselves. Most of them are still on rookie contracts, and Green just signed a prove-it deal.
Rockets believer: The urgency to win is what makes this fundamentally different to that Orlando situation. Don't you see the beauty of this whole thing? This front office has built a legitimate playoff team, but it hasn't skipped any steps. It has signed -- and, in Adams' case, traded for -- the right kind of veterans. It has drafted high-ceiling prospects at every position and hired a coach who will hold them accountable. You're just confused because you've never seen a team with this much talent and this much runway.
Rockets skeptic: A "legitimate playoff team?" Did you really use that phrase and talk about not skipping steps in the same sentence? Let me remind you that, for all the praise they've received from draft analysts, the Rockets haven't actually done anything yet. Last season, they were fighting to make the play-in, not the playoffs, and they came up short. And that was with Memphis effectively taking the year off, which won't be the case this time. They ranked 20th in offensive efficiency in 2023-24; why should anyone expect them to make a huge jump?
Rockets believer: So glad you asked! Last year, the offense was decent with Fred VanVleet on the court (114.6 points per 100 possessions) and atrocious without him (108.1 per 100). They depended on him to keep the offense organized, and they needed the threat of his pull-up 3. Now, though, they have Sheppard! He's like another FVV! Actually, I think he'll have more gravity as a shooter. Beyond that, Adams' screening and offensive rebounding will help, and I expect internal improvement from all of the young guys. None of them made 3s at a high enough clip last season, and all of them are aware of that.
Rockets skeptic: I'm high on Sheppard, and maybe he'll be one of the rare rookies who makes his team better from the jump. Given all the other guards who need minutes, though, how much of an impact can he possibly have? He's definitely not going to have the same opportunity he would have been afforded had he been drafted by the Wizards. This environment is also what makes me reticent to count on a ton of "internal improvement." Even in an ideal situation, development isn't linear, and I worry that this particular situation isn't conducive to a few different players simultaneously growing in meaningful ways. If the Rockets are serious about making a leap -- and my sense is that they are -- then they need to figure out who their core guys are. Once they do that, they'll probably have to trade a few of the others, so they can build a team that has a chance to be more than the sum of its parts.
