The Houston Rockets won 65 games in the regular season, with a league-best plus-8.5 net rating, and only lost two games in the first two rounds of the playoffs. They are 50-5 this season (including the postseason) when James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela have been healthy. They will have home-court advantage when the Western Conference finals start on Monday.
In an ordinary season, a team like this would be seen as the favorites to win the NBA title. This, however, is not an ordinary season. The mere existence of the Golden State Warriors means that, to even have a chance at championship contention, you must be almost impossible to stop and almost impossible to exploit. Everybody knows Houston constructed its roster with the Warriors in mind, but, heading into their highly anticipated series, the question around the league is simple: Can the Rockets actually do this?
I did not predict a Houston victory, but I wouldn't be completely shocked by it. Here's how it could happen:
Slow Steph
It is not exactly revolutionary to point out that Stephen Curry is the Warriors' engine or that the fact he recently returned from a knee injury gives the Rockets a better-than-normal chance to knock them off. Maybe the five days of rest before the series starts will be enough to get Curry where he needs to be, but Houston has to hope that it can wear down the two-time MVP over the course of the series.
Curry looked good against the New Orleans Pelicans in the second round, dropping 28 points in both his return and the clincher. From a qualitative perspective, though, his off-the-dribble burst wasn't quite what it is at his peak. Houston is going to put as much pressure on him as possible by being physical with him away from the ball on offense, hunting him in isolation and pick-and-roll situations on defense and generally trying to frustrate him. None of this stuff is new to Curry, but there's no way to know how he will hold up this time.
Win the turnover battle
Ah, the reason we all watch basketball: keeping track of who takes care of the ball better! But seriously, this is the kind of thing that keeps Golden State coach Steve Kerr up at night. Turnovers have been the Warriors' biggest bugaboo throughout the entire Kerr era, and when they have looked vulnerable, it has usually been because they have been sloppy. The Rockets will switch like crazy to try to prevent Golden State from finding much of a flow in its offensive system, and they will put pressure on ballhandlers.
Equally important: Houston must continue to be disciplined when it has the ball. In the playoffs, the Rockets have had the league's best turnover rate, largely because their attack is simple when compared to pass-happy teams like the Warriors. Houston spreads the floor as much as it can and lets its playmakers make plays, trusting that Harden, Paul and Eric Gordon will make good decisions. This has been a successful formula so far.
Make the most of Capela's minutes
Let's talk about Capela, the third-best Rocket and the man who outplayed Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert in successive series. You already know by now that he is an extremely disruptive defender and the perfect modern-day roll man, always willing to play his role and give more effort than whoever he's going up against. But can he be his normal self against Golden State? Can Houston even afford to play him for 33 minutes a game, like he did against Utah?
This will likely come down to how well Capela defends when the Warriors go small. (They will probably start small.) For a center, he moves his feet exceptionally, but this is an opponent that routinely runs big guys -- even some more-mobile-than-average ones -- off the floor. Expect Golden State to try to lure him away from the basket whenever it can.
If this goes well, Capela will hold his own when he switches onto smaller players, dominate the paint like he did against the Jazz and put up ridiculous rebound numbers like he did against the Timberwolves. If it doesn't, he will look like a liability more often than he looks like the Rockets' third star.
Prevent Durant explosions
There is only so much you can do against Kevin Durant. Houston, though, has the (theoretical) ability to make him work harder than normal for his points. Coach Mike D'Antoni can throw Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute at him over the course of each game, and you can expect all of them to try to deny him the ball, body him up and force him to take contested jumpers.
In general, defending a guy like Durant is a team effort. Against the Warriors, though, sending lots of double-teams his way is death. Ariza, Tucker and Mbah a Moute can't stop him, but they should at least be able to stay in front of him. If they can do that and avoid giving up efficient, 35-plus-point games, Houston will be in good shape.
Tucker and Mbah a Moute have to hit 3s
These two were signed because they are such strong and smart defenders, but they were reliable 3-point shooters in the regular season, too: Tucker made 37.1 percent of his 3-point attempts and Mbah a Moute made 36.4 percent of his. Despite these marks, when opposing teams have to pick their poison against the Rockets, they often pick Tucker and Mbah a Moute.
So far in the playoffs, leaving Tucker open has not been an effective strategy: He has taken 4.6 3s a game and made 45.6 percent of them. Mbah a Moute, however, has only gone 2-for-10 from deep (but missed the entire first round because of a shoulder injury). The stakes are getting higher now, and they know they have to shoot with confidence. Houston's margin for error is slim, so a cold streak at the wrong time could be costly.
Win Game 1
I know, I know, every game in the playoffs is equally important. We have seen Golden State (pre-Durant) both come back from and surrender a 3-1 series lead in the same postseason. But doesn't it seem like the Rockets really need to start this series on the right foot?
Losing home-court advantage in the opener would be a bummer and would make Game 2 essentially a must-win for Houston. Getting a victory off the bat would send a message that this matchup is different from all the others. If you're hoping for a long, interesting series, root for the Rockets on Monday.
