I've written this many times already this offseason, and I'm going to write it again: There are, at the very least, 10 teams that can walk into training camp and realistically believe they can win the 2019-20 NBA championship. More likely, that number is closer to 13, by my count. Would most of these teams need a few breaks? Sure. But they're within range, at least on paper. It's been a long time since the league has been this wide open. You could argue it never has.
Still, as always, a separation exists between the true contenders and everyone else. That line has blurred, but below we're still going to try to draw it. A lot can, and perhaps will, change between now and the trade deadline, and then from there into the playoffs with injuries and other factors, but as it stands right now, here's my list of contenders and pretenders.
CONTENDERS
| 1 |  |
| They're not just a contender, they're the favorite. Rightfully so. This is a team that won 48 games and took two games off the healthy Warriors, and then replaced Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Elite offense. Elite defense. Elite depth. | |
| 2 |  |
| You have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, you're a contender. They waited for Kawhi Leonard and thus missed out on a shot at guys like J.J. Redick, Bojan Bogdanovic and D'Angelo Russell, among others, but they did fine to end up with Danny Green, Avery Bradley and DeMarcus Cousins to fill out a roster that still includes Rajon Rondo, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and of course Kyle Kuzma. Also, they're reportedly keeping a roster spot open for Andre Iguodala, who likely isn't in Memphis to stay. | |
| 3 |  |
| If you're on the "Warriors are going to miss the playoffs" train, you need to grab your things and bail out the side. Not only are they a surefire playoff team barring major injury, but they will also be a factor when they get there. Let's be realistic about this: The Warriors will enter the season with three All-Stars in their starting lineup, including arguably the single-best offensive AND defensive player in the league in Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. At some point, Klay Thompson will join the party. If you've forgotten, that's the nucleus of the team that won 73 games and an NBA title. The depth is down, yes, but Golden State did well on the edges in re-signing Kevon Looney while picking up Willie Cauley-Stein, Alec Burks and Omari Spellman, among others. They're not the cream of the crop anymore, but they're a contender. | |
| 4 |  |
| Look at this projected starting lineup: Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Al Horford and Joel Embiid. That's probably the best starting five in the league top to bottom. The defense is going to be ridiculous. Horford is a legitimate option on Giannis Antetokounmpo in the playoffs, and he guards against the fall-off that Philly dealt with last year whenever Embiid wasn't on the court. The losses of Jimmy Butler and J.J Redick are huge, and this team still lacks shooting, but again, the defense, the size, the sheer collection of talent, it's got title contender written all over it. | |
| 5 |  |
| Milwaukee was the best regular-season team in the league last season and went up 2-0 on the Raptors in the conference finals. They have the reigning MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who showed real signs in the playoffs that he's on his way to becoming an actual threatening 3-point shooter. The Bucks lose Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic, but they're still as deep as any team in the league with shooters all around Giannis and an elite defense. Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Eric Bledsoe and George Hill are back while Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews are in. Continuity is worth a lot. The Bucks can win it all. | |
| 6 |  |
| Perhaps the biggest under-the-radar addition of the summer is Denver trading for Jerami Grant, who will bring a ton of athleticism and shot-blocking alongside Nikola Jokic, and he can stretch the floor from three, too. Add Grant to a roster that brings back everyone from last year's 54-win team that was one game from the conference finals, and you have a contender. Jokic is a top-10 player. Jamal Murray is a star. Together they form one of the best two-man games in the league, and there are athletic defenders and shooters all around them. Gary Harris and Paul Millsap are studs. Monte Morris is one of the best backup point guards in the league. Will Barton, Malik Beasley and Torrey Craig on the wing. Michael Porter Jr. as a huge X-factor. This is a really, really good team that can absolutely come out of the West if just a few pivotal shots and defensive stops go their way in the playoffs. | |
| 7 |  |
| We're starting to get closer to the pretenders now. Utah is right on the line, in my opinion. They are a really good team. I'm not sure if they're great. Adding Bojan Bogdanovic and Mike Conley is huge for the offense, and Donovan Mitchell has all the spacing he needs to have a monster third season. The depth is good with Dante Exum and two nice signings in Jeff Green and Ed Davis, who keeps the defense viably elite when Rudy Gobert sits. The separation between Utah and the top-tier teams is the top-end talent. Bottom line, they don't have a top-10 player in the league, or probably even a top-15 player. All the teams above them do have that player, if not two of them, and in the playoffs that makes an obvious difference. If Utah is going to win a title, it can look at those Detroit Pistons teams of Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton that had five really good players, All-Stars, but no superstars. It can be done. | |
PRETENDERS
| 1 |  |
| Calling the Blazers a pretender is brutally tough for me. I have ridden and will continue to ride, Damian Lillard as a stone-cold superstar, and C.J. McCollum isn't far behind. You have two shot creators/makers like that, you can beat anyone on any given night. Let's remember, this is a team that made it to the conference finals last season, where they held 15-point leads in three of their four losses to the Warriors. Portland lost seven players from that conference finals team, but they also get Jusuf Nurkic back at some point this season, and that is huge. The way Nurkic was playing last year before the injury, you can legitimately call Portland a Big 3, and until he comes back maybe Portland strikes gold on a return to glory for Hassan Whiteside , who is a monster rebounder and shot-blocker at worst. The Anfernee Simons hype train is already at full speed. Still, there was some fortune in last year's run. The Blazers came back from a million points down, with all their core players in street clothes, to win their final game of the regular season and secure the No. 3 seed. Had they not done that and wound up No. 4, they would've lost in the second round to Golden State and the hype around this team would be a lot less. Fact is, the Blazers were not as good of a team as Denver last season, but they won their seven-game second-round series because Lillard, and even more so McCollum, were able to create offense out of nothing. That is not going to stop, and Portland is really good. If you want to call them a contender, I won't argue with you. But for me, they are a puncher's chance team that sits just barely outside the elite tier. | |
| 2 |  |
| Boston is right there with Portland as the best of the pretenders, but unless they make a move for a defensive big man to at least somewhat replicate what Al Horford did for them ( Steven Adams , anyone?), they can't win it all as currently constructed. I would be happy to be wrong about this, and I may very well be. Boston is a lot better than the perception that formed when it lost Kyrie Irving and Horford. Kemba Walker is a stud. Enes Kanter is great at what he does. Gordon Hayward has been largely forgotten as an All-Star, but would it be that big a shock if he got back to that level after a year to get his legs back after the injury? Jaylen Brown , Jayson Tatum , Marcus Smart , Romeo Langford ... this is a good team. I think they can contend for the Eastern Conference title with one decent move for a big, but until they do that, I have to keep them as a pretender. | |
| 3 |  |
| I hate the Russell Westbrook disparaging, even though I'm guilty of plenty of it. It gets to a point where you have to step back and say, "wait a minute, this guy is AVERAGING A TRIPLE DOUBLE!" Westbrook and James Harden are a formidable duo, no doubt, but the fit issues are real. Unless Westbrook becomes a 35-percent 3-point shooter (29 percent the last two seasons) or commits this late in his career to being an active cutter, he's not the off-ball threat that Harden needs as he sizes up defenses looking for space to penetrate. Westbrook will have ample opportunities to attack closeouts on drive-and-kicks by Harden, and again, like the Sixers, fit isn't everything. Collective talent goes a long way on its own. Throw in Clint Capela and Eric Gordon , and Houston will have an elite offense, no question. The defense is super suspect, and in the end, I just don't see this team winning a title. | |
| 4 |  |
| Indiana gets Victor Oladipo back to play alongside new addition Malcolm Brogdon, but the losses of Bojan Bogdanovic and, to a lesser degree, Thaddeus Young will hit them hard. This is a team that will play hard enough and with enough consistency and familiarity to win a lot of regular-season games. I wouldn't be shocked if they wound up as a 3-seed, but they're not a title contender as currently constructed. | |
| 5 |  |
| Until Kevin Durant suits up, presumably not until the 2020-21 season, the Nets have effectively swapped D'Angelo Russell for Kyrie Irving. That's a big upgrade, but not nearly big enough to make Brooklyn a realistic title contender. Outside of Irving the Nets merely have a bunch of "nice" players, the most exciting of which are Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert . Brooklyn is a fun team to root for. They rose from the ashes of that 2013 Celtics heist to put together a playoff team in pretty short order, and then they landed two of the three biggest free agents on the market. It's easy to let your optimism get away from you with this team. But they're not going to win, or even realistically compete for, a title. That will have to wait one more year for Durant. | |
| 6 |  |
| Two All-Star players in DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge , plus the return of Dejounte Murray , make the Spurs a threat to extend their remarkable playoff streak to 23 years, but that's about it. Solid players like Derrick White , Rudy Gay , Bryn Forbes , Jakob Poeltl and Patty Mills remain, but the league has gotten too superstar-heavy at the top. I wouldn't be shocked if San Antonio missed the playoffs altogether. | |
