The Miami Heat finished the first half of the 2021-22 NBA season on a high note and aim to start the post-break run in similar fashion on Friday. The Heat are 6-1 in the last seven games, and Miami visits the New York Knicks in the first game after the All-Star break for both sides. Miami is 38-21 this season, with New York entering at 25-34 overall and 13-17 at Madison Square Garden. R.J. Barrett (ankle) and Nerlens Noel (foot) are listed as questionable for the Knicks, with Derrick Rose (ankle) and Kemba Walker (not with team) out.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as a six-point road favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the Over-Under, is 211.5 in the latest Heat vs. Knicks odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Heat vs. Knicks match-up, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the red-hot computer simulation at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 18 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 69-41 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Knicks, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Knicks:
- Heat vs. Knicks spread: Heat -6
- Heat vs. Knicks over-under: 211.5 points
- Heat vs. Knicks money line: Heat -230, Knicks +190
- MIA: The Heat are 18-17-1 against the spread in conference games
- NYK: The Knicks are 16-20 against the spread in conference games
Why the Heat can cover
Miami is potent on offense, with strong metrics across the board. However, the Heat have a tremendous defense, and this is also an appetizing matchup on that end of the floor. Miami is No. 6 in the league in defensive rating, giving up 1.07 points per possession. The Heat are in the top five in field goal percentage allowed at 44.2 percent, and Miami is No. 4 in creating turnovers, forcing 15.3 per game.
Miami leads the league in points allowed in the paint (40.1 per game), and the Heat are in the top 10 in assists allowed, defensive rebound rate, and second-chance points allowed. New York's offense is No. 25 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.4 points per 100 possessions, and the Knicks struggle in key areas. New York is in the bottom five in two-point shooting and assists per game, with the league's worst mark in points in the paint (41.0 per game).
Why the Knicks can cover
New York is in the top five of the NBA in free-throw creation, producing 22.5 attempts per game at the line. The Knicks are also excellent on the offensive glass, securing 29.1 percent of missed shots and averaging 14.5 second-chance points per game. New York is in the top 10 in 3-pointers per game (13.1), and above-average in limiting turnovers, averaging only 13.6 per game.
The Knicks are holding opponents to 44.5 percent shooting, No. 6 in the NBA, and are in the top 10 of the league in 2-point defense. New York is No. 3 in the league in points allowed in the paint (42.8 per game) and ranks solidly in the top 10 in blocked shots with more than five per game. Miami is strong and balanced, but the Heat are near the bottom of the NBA in ball security, committing a turnover on more than 15 percent of offensive possessions.
How to make Heat vs. Knicks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 213 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Knicks vs. Heat pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Knicks? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Knicks spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
