Andrew Wiggins is on the verge of being a max player.
Minnesota Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor confirmed that the team is trying to sign him to a five-year, $148 million extension, telling Sid Hartman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune on Friday, "I don't think we have any trouble of offering him the max."
By Wiggins' estimation, that offer is a formality. He told Ben Golliver of Sports Illustrated that he is "definitely" deserving of a max deal and "nothing less." According to Jon Krawczysnki of the Associated Press, the Wolves have known for a while this is the only way he will make a commitment to the organization.
Wiggins doesn't turn 23 until after next season's All-Star Game. He was one of the more hyped high schoolers since LeBron James, and he was drafted first overall by the Cavaliers in 2014 before a trade to Minnesota which sent Kevin Love to Cleveland. During Wiggins' Rookie of the Year season, Kobe Bryant said facing him was "like looking at a reflection of myself 19 years ago." Wiggins averaged 23.6 points last season, and he has all the physical attributes of a star wing -- perhaps the most difficult to find type in the modern NBA.
Yet after three years in the league, Wiggins remains divisive. He is not Giannis Antetokounmpo, obviously worth as much money as an organization is allowed to pay him under the salary cap. Wiggins is also not a bust, and his potential is on display every time he makes a spectacular spin move or dunk. What makes Wiggins frustrating is that he loses focus on defense, doesn't rebound well and rarely makes plays for others. What makes him interesting is that -- were he better in those areas -- he truly could be something special.
Analyzing Wiggins' statistical profile alone -- without knowing about the hoopla surrounding him as a teenager -- there is reason to believe he is approaching stardom. But beyond points per game, there is nothing to indicate he is more than a volume scorer. In fact, there is an argument that -- if the Wolves wanted to maximize their short-term success -- they should not have given Wiggins so much playmaking responsibility.
Some fun with numbers: Wiggins' 29 percent usage rate easily led the Wolves, and that number rose in the fourth quarter and clutch situations. He had a true shooting percentage of 53.4 percent, propped up by his pretty good free throw rate and still nowhere near where it should be for a No. 1 option. Synergy Sports rates him as an excellent transition player, but only average otherwise -- his 0.915 points per possession in the halfcourt is in the league's 50th percentile. The Wolves have insisted on putting the ball in his hands even though he has not been particularly efficient with it. His ball-handling, vision, decision-making and shooting need improvement.
All this would be less troubling if Wiggins were still earning recognition for his defense. Largely because of a standout performance against James Harden two years ago he was seen as a lock for future All-Defensive teams. But last June, FiveThirtyEight's Kyle Wagner named him the league's worst defender. While he has his moments defending one-on-one, he was a significant part of Minnesota's overall inconsistency at that end, often losing concentration away from the ball and making mistakes within coach Tom Thibodeau's scheme.
In defense of Wiggins' defense, he may have been tired. He led the league in total minutes while putting in all that work on offense. He also was hurt by teammates who were regularly out of position. Next season, with Jimmy Butler -- the best model for Wiggins the Wolves could have acquired -- and Taj Gibson around, we should see a better reflection of his development (or lack thereof) in this area.
This is where it's worth noting that being pessimistic about Wiggins is not inherently smart. Few thought Klay Thompson or Danny Green would become elite perimeter defenders early in their careers. At the other end, DeMar DeRozan's coach -- Dwane Casey -- didn't see him becoming the prolific pick-and-roll player he is today, but is now comfortable using him as a de facto point guard. Players grow, and there will be several rookies next season who are younger than Wiggins.
While there is risk in paying Wiggins a starting salary of $25.5 million, there also is risk in not doing so. Before the 2013-14 season, the Utah Jazz couldn't come to terms of a contract extension with Gordon Hayward, and wound up matching a four-year, maximum offer sheet for him in free agency. Hayward was frustrated with the whole process, and now that Hayward has become an all-around star and joined the Boston Celtics, the Jazz surely wish they had given him the full, five-year max back then. The tricky part is that, back then, even the deal they matched was considered an overpay.
If Wiggins and the Wolves agree to an extension, the franchise is betting on his talent and work ethic. He is nowhere near a finished product, and for now he looks much better in highlights than in film study. Figuring out whether he will reach his potential involves guesswork, but given that Minnesota has seen how he approaches the game up close, no team can make a more educated guess.
