Teams battling for positioning in the NBA Eastern Conference standings meet Friday when the Milwaukee Bucks (31-17) travel to take on the Indiana Pacers (24-26). Milwaukee currently sits in third, three games back of the Celtics. The Pacers are No. 9 in the East but just one game clear of the postseason cut-off line, so they'll be hungry for a win on their home floor. Bobby Portis (knee) is the only major contributor ruled out for the Bucks, though Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) is listed as probable. Tyrese Haliburton (knee, elbow) is out for Indiana, while Myles Turner (ankle), Andrew Nembhard (illness) and Aaron Nesmith (wrist) are questionable.
Tipoff from Gainbridge Fieldhouse is set for 7 p.m. ET in the first start time on Friday's NBA schedule. Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee at -8 in the Bucks vs. Pacers odds. The over/under for total points has climbed to 240. Before locking in any Pacers vs. Bucks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 15 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 47-22 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Pacers and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Pacers:
- Bucks vs. Pacers spread: Bucks -8
- Bucks vs. Pacers over/under: 240 points
- Bucks vs. Pacers money line: Bucks -350, Pacers +275
- MIL: The Bucks are 9-12-3 against the spread in road games
- IND: The Pacers are 16-9 against the spread in home games
- Bucks vs. Pacers picks: See picks here
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee's defense is fantastic this season, giving up fewer than 1.11 points per possession this season. The Bucks are in the top four of the league in defensive rating, defensive rebound rate, shooting efficiency allowed, free throw prevention and assists allowed, and Milwaukee is blowing more than five shots per game. Indiana has offensive issues in ball security and shotmaking, and those shortcomings are magnified in the absence of Haliburton.
On offense, Milwaukee is producing 14.7 second-chance points per game while securing nearly 30% of missed shots on the offensive glass. The Bucks also have edges against a porous Indiana defense. The Pacers are in the bottom ten of the NBA in 114.5 points allowed per 100 possessions, and Indiana is in the bottom five of the league in 3-point accuracy allowed (37.4%), free throw attempts allowed (25.4 per game), assists allowed (26.1 per game) and defensive rebound rate (69.2%).
Why the Pacers can cover
Indiana has thrived as a home underdog this season with a 12-5 record against the spread in that scenario. The Pacers are 1-8 in their last nine games overall and that's certainly a huge reason why they're substantial underdogs in this one. But zooming out a bit more, Indiana is 7-2 in its last nine home games, so this is a spot where it certainly could pull off an upset, or at least keep it within this number.
A lengthy recent road trip and the absence of Haliburton have hurt. But Indiana still has scoring punch in the form of veteran guard Buddy Hield and rookie Bennedict Mathurin, both of whom average 17.6 points per game. Getting Turner on the court would be big from a scoring and defensive standpoint as he averages 17.4 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game.
How to make Bucks vs. Pacers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the point total, with only one player projected to exceed 20 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Pacers vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Pacers spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
