Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat (38-22) will aim to knock off the NBA's best team on Monday evening when the Milwaukee Bucks (52-8) come to town. The Bucks will put the league's best overall and road records on the line in this tilt, with the Heat looking to improve their NBA playoff picture outlook. Miami will be without Tyler Herro (ankle) and Meyers Leonard (ankle). Khris Middleton (neck) is probable for Milwaukee after the All-Star missed the last two contests.
Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Arena. Sportsbooks list Milwaukee as a 4.5-point road favorite, up 1.5 points from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 227.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Bucks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated spread and money line picks. It's already returned well over $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 19 a blistering 47-30 on all top-rated spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are the NBA odds and trends for Heat vs. Bucks:
- Bucks vs. Heat spread: Bucks -4.5
- Bucks vs. Heat over-under: 227.5 points
- Bucks vs. Heat money line: Bucks -179, Heat +154
- MIL: The Bucks are 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 games
- MIA: The Heat are 3-8 against the spread in the last 11 games
Why the Bucks can cover
The model has considered that the Bucks have the best player on the floor in Giannis Antetokounmpo. The reigning NBA MVP is also the favorite to repeat this season, averaging 29.9 points, 13.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game while bringing high-end defensive impact to the table. Antetokounmpo unlocks things on both ends for Milwaukee, with the Bucks putting together top-tier units.
Milwaukee is the best defensive team in the NBA, leading the league in points allowed per possession and shooting efficiency allowed, with an important characteristic in limiting free throw attempts by the opposition. On the offensive side, the Bucks have an ideal shot profile with hoards of shots at the rim and from 3-point range, with the team ranking No. 2 in the NBA in overall offensive efficiency.
Why the Heat can cover
Even so, Milwaukee isn't a lock to cover the Bucks vs. Heat spread. The model also knows that the Heat are a stellar home team, posting a 25-4 record in their own building this season. Miami is the best team in the NBA at generating free throws and, with a top-five mark in shooting efficiency, the Heat are a strongly above-average offensive team.
They'll need to be proficient on that side of the ball to have success against Milwaukee, and the Heat are led by a two-headed monster of Butler and Adebayo. Butler averages 20.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game, with Adebayo adding 16.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and elite-level defense. Miami is an excellent defensive rebounding team, with the ability to close possessions at a high rate.
How to make Bucks vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with Antetokounmpo and Butler projected to fall short of their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.
So who wins Bucks vs. Heat and which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
