Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and the Milwaukee Bucks open their 2020-21 campaign on Wednesday evening. The Bucks face Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics in a battle between Eastern Conference contenders. The Bucks overhauled their supporting cast over the offseason, headlined by the acquisition of Jrue Holiday. The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward to the Charlotte Hornets, but added supporting pieces like Tristan Thompson and rookie first round pick Aaron Nesmith.
Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden. Milwaukee is listed as a four-point favorite in the latest Bucks vs. Celtics odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 224. Before you make any Celtics vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
Jonathan Coachman is joined by expert sports bettors Larry Hartstein, Tim Doyle and Mike Barner to handicap Wednesday's NBA slate on The Early Edge, a daily sports betting podcast powered by SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two seasons. Last year, it went a stunning 61-33 on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Celtics. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Celtics vs. Bucks:
- Bucks vs. Celtics spread: Bucks -4
- Bucks vs. Celtics over-under: 224 points
- Bucks vs. Celtics money line: Bucks -185, Celtics +165
- MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
- BOS: The Celtics are 7-6 against the spread in the last 13 games
Why the Bucks can cover
The Bucks were the best team in the NBA during the 2019-20 regular season, and the key pieces of that roster return for another run. Antetokounmpo, the reigning NBA MVP, averaged 29.5 points, 13.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists last season, with elite defense as part of his arsenal. Middleton was able to maintain elite efficiency, including a 41.5 percent mark on three-point attempts, and he averaged 20.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game.
From there, the Bucks added Holiday to a group that was already the best in the NBA on defense last season, leading the league in points allowed per possession, effective field goal percentage allowed and defensive rebound rate. Offensively, the Bucks had the No. 1 mark in the league in effective field goal percentage, and they ranked as a top-six offense in generating overall efficiency.
Why the Celtics can cover
The Celtics are a balanced team, with strong units on both ends, and they also have star power to deploy. Even with Kemba Walker (knee) sidelined, Boston still has a pair of talented young forwards in Tatum and Brown, with Tatum averaging 23.4 points and 7.0 rebounds last season and Brown adding 20.3 points and 6.4 rebounds per contest. Milwaukee is an exceptional regular season team, but the Bucks did have a few weaknesses in 2019-20 that may still appear. The Bucks were the second-worst offensive rebounding team in the league, pulling down only 22.6 percent of chances after their own missed shots.
Defensively, Milwaukee also doesn't create much havoc, ranking near the bottom of the NBA in turnover creation rate at 13.4 percent. The Celtics may also have the edge in continuity, with the Bucks making significant roster changes this offseason.
How to make Bucks vs. Celtics picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with Antetokounmpo and Tatum both projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages from 2019-20. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Celtics vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bucks vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
