Well, the second, and absolutely predictable Anthony Davis bomb has dropped. After Davis officially informed the Pelicans he will not sign a max extension this summer, and subsequently demanded a trade from the organization that drafted him No. 1 overall in 2012, news came down on Tuesday that Davis and his agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, will soon inform the league that Davis, a free agent in the summer of 2020, will not sign a long-term deal with any team other than the Lakers.
Anyone who didn't see this coming is blind. It's a blatant attempt to scare other teams away from trading for Davis on the basis that he will only be a one-year rental, thus depressing the competitive market and steering Davis straight into LeBron James' lap in time to perhaps make a run at a championship this season. Should the Pelicans concede to the pressure?
Absolutely not.
If you think about it, nothing has really changed. That Davis would ultimately deny the Pelicans a max extension and request a trade was a near formality all along. One person in the league I spoke to months ago said the Pelicans should "be in a race" to get a trade done for Davis while they still had something close to max leverage. In public, they don't have that anymore, but in reality, they never had it to begin with.
Put simply, anything Davis and his agent are now saying publicly is something they would've said behind closed doors anyway had a trade proposal been presented earlier. If Davis really, truly wants to go only to the Lakers, and this isn't a bluff to speed this process up, then he would've said that when other teams came to the table. And those other teams would have then had to make the same decision they have to make now: Is it worth giving up a bunch of young players and draft assets for a guy who is saying, for whatever that's worth, that he'll only stay one season?
Players say a lot of things. Paul George said he wanted to go to the Lakers, but the Thunder traded for him anyway then convinced him to stay. Kawhi Leonard strongly hinted he wanted to go to the Lakers, but the Raptors traded for him anyway, and while we'll have to wait and see how that turns out long term this summer, at worst Toronto put itself in position for a one-year title chase it wouldn't have been in otherwise.
Point is: There is enough evidence that teams are willing to take this risk and trade for a player of Davis' caliber, even against the threat that he'll turn around and leave in 2020. In fact, reports are already out that the Celtics are willing to do just that. Per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski:
Still, Boston looms as a threat to every team in the process once the Celtics are no longer constrained from adding a player on a designated rookie extension. After Kyrie Irving -- whose contract is under the same extension -- becomes a free agent July 1, Boston is able to officially acquire Davis in a trade. An agreement could be in place well before that date and finalized July 1.
GM Danny Ainge is undeterred on making a trade for Davis, even without an assurance that he would agree to an extension with the Celtics, league sources said. Boston has been calling New Orleans for the past year-plus on Davis, and has gathered multiple first-round picks and young players to include in a package for him. Davis has a strong relationship with Irving, and Boston knows that trading for Davis would assuredly perish any possibility of Irving changing his mind and leaving the Celtics in free agency this summer.
So you see, while Davis and his agent are trying to scare everyone else away, nothing has really changed. Davis wants out. Whoever trades for him, outside of the Lakers, will do so knowing he's a flight risk. Same deal as always. So the question remains the same as well: Who has the best package to offer New Orleans? It's the Celtics by a mile.
Not only do they have Jayson Tatum, who is the best young player anyone can realistically offer outside of maybe Ben Simmons if the Sixers were to get crazy, but the Celtics also have a pair of diamond draft picks to offer -- Sacramento's 2019 first-round pick, which conveys as long as the Kings don't end up with the No. 1 overall pick (which they won't), and another Grizzlies first-round pick, which is top-eight protected in 2019, top-six protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021.
Put simply, whoever gets those picks is going to very likely have two extra lottery picks at some point in the next three years, which is absolute gold for a team looking to kickstart a rebuild after losing its franchise player. The Lakers, by contrast, only have their own draft picks to offer, which as long as LeBron James is around, and certainly if Anthony Davis joins him, figure to be mid-to-low picks for a team that should be safe, if not deep, into the playoffs. Boston also has Jaylen Brown, who, if put back in a role where he is a focal-point, is arguably also better than anyone the Lakers can offer.
To me, the biggest danger in waiting for the Celtics is if they somehow win the championship this season. Would Davis, who has never really proven he can lead a team deep in the playoffs, feel too much like a coattail-rider to join a team long-term that didn't need him to win?
Remember when Kevin Durant said he wouldn't have signed with the Warriors had they won the title in 2016? To me, that's a real thing. Players don't mind joining up, obviously, but they want to at least feel like the missing piece rather than a tag along. In this sense, the Pelicans would be betting that Boston can't win the title this year. Barring a major injury to the Warriors, they are probably safe in that regard. But you're talking about a Boston team that a lot of people still feel is the Finals favorite in the East, and we saw how tough the Celtics match up with Golden State last Saturday in a game Boston easily could have won.
This idea of Boston winning it all, and the subsequent impact that might have on AD's decision, isn't at the forefront of this situation, but I do think it's something for New Orleans to weigh alongside the other risks of waiting for the Celtics. Because urgency is a real dynamic here. It's always easy to stress the need for patience, but if the Lakers throw the kitchen sink at the Pels, which they almost certainly will if it comes to that (or at least they should), it's not like Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart, along with a few first-round picks and maybe even sudden sensation Ivica Zubac, is a bad package.
On paper, that's more than the Bulls got for Jimmy Butler, and more than Cleveland got for Kyrie Irving. I doubt any of those players ever becomes as good as Victor Oladipo or DeMar DeRozan, but in terms of youth, contracts and collective upside, you could argue it's more than the Spurs and the Pacers got for Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, respectively. The Lakers can offer a good trade, and the bottom line is this: If you're New Orleans, until you have a deal done, you don't have anything except the risk of losing Anthony Davis for nothing.
That's what the Lakers are banking on. That's what Davis and his agent are banking on -- that the urgency of the situation will take over and the Lakers can slide in before Boston is able to officially get in the mix this summer. It's the right play. Personally, I thought the Lakers should've traded for George and Kawhi when they had the chance. If they get Davis, they were right to wait. But they have to get Davis. Otherwise, this is a third strike for a team that has too heavily prioritized the future over the once-in-a-lifetime present of having LeBron James.
I have no idea what the Pelicans are going to do. I don't think anyone does. I would be surprised if even the Pelicans themselves know. A mystery team could well emerge that is willing to jump in the title mix this season and deal with re-trading Davis next year. All the while, the clock is ticking. This is going to be one wild ride waiting for next Thursday's trade deadline.
