As the NBA Finals head to Cleveland for Games 3 and 4, the Golden State Warriors have a big question on their hands. Did Stephen Curry just miss shots in their overtime Game 2 loss or did the Cleveland Cavaliers figure out how to defend him, especially with Matthew Dellavedova?
The 2014-15 MVP had a horrific performance, going 5-of-23 from the field and 2-of-15 from 3-point range for 19 points, five assists, and six turnovers in the 95-93 loss. He even air balled the potential winning shot in overtime as Dellavedova crowded away his space as best he could on the jumper. It was a perplexing game and one that needed just one of those 13 missed 3-pointers to fall to change the mood of this series. The Cavaliers went from dead on arrival after the Kyrie Irving injury news to feeling like they can survive and win their first NBA title.
With the way the Cavaliers have controlled the pace and flow of this series so far, it's starting to feel a lot like what the Warriors went through in their second round matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies. After three games, the Warriors were left scratching their heads with a 2-1 series deficit and Curry along with the Warriors' offense looking stymied. The Grizzlies were fueled by the return of Mike Conley and it allowed them to get back to the defense that got them into being considered a contender in the West.
It was tough trying to figure out how well the Grizzlies were doing against Steph Curry because of the types of shots he takes. He shooting conscience is brazen and the shots he takes can be quite unconventional. It's like watching a kid troubleshoot ways to make shots in a driveway, except Curry has taken that to a successful NBA career. Against Memphis, he was missing a considerable amount of open shots and looks that are good for him and typical of his repertoire. However, was he missing those good looks or were the Grizzlies taking him out of his rhythm?
Game 2 against the Grizzlies saw Curry go 7-of-19 from the field and 2-of-11 from 3-point range as he totaled 19 points in their 97-90 loss. Of those 19 shots, these were the only real looks in which Curry seemed crowded into a tougher shot or out of rhythm in his offensive flow.
The majority of those looks were good for Curry and they simply didn't fall. Golden State had to feel like the floodgates would eventually open if they kept going with what had worked all season long for them. Curry's ambitious but controlled attempts had to fall, especially if the Grizzlies had really only forced him into three or so uncomfortable attempts in the game.
The Game 3 loss by the Warriors was a different story. They lost 99-89 to the Grizzlies as Curry went for 23 points on 8-of-21 shooting and 2-of-10 from 3-point range. For those two games, Curry managed to shoot 4-of-21 from 3-point range, which seemed peculiar for the greatest 3-point shooter in NBA history. There were also a lot more shots by Curry the Grizzlies had seemed to snuff out.
We weren't seeing the same separation on jumpers we had all season. We weren't seeing the same follow-through on all of his jumpers. The pump fakes were more tentative than tactical. The troubleshooting was bringing up more errors than solutions.
Even the shot he made on that leaning banker from the left side wasn't a good, comfortable shot, nor was the left side falling jumper he hit in the third quarter. Over the next three games, Curry (27.6 points, 44.4 percent FG, 51.4 percent 3FG) would figure it out as the Warriors figured out ways to completely take away the Grizzlies' offense. It was a symbiotic relationship that helped them dominate the rest of the series and start moving toward the Finals.
Heading into Game 3 against the Cavaliers, it's feeling like Curry is suffering both from his own rhythm not being there on shots he'd normally take and the Cavs defending him quite well. But it's mostly about the decision-making on these shots that Curry has to figure out.
He's in a unique position that we haven't really seen much, if at all, in NBA history. You'll get the occasional pundit saying his jump shooting heavy offense is doomed in playoff basketball, but mostly his incredibly audacious shooting decisions don't get criticized. His talent seems to transcend questioning whether he's making the right call when he hoists up a quick shot because we've almost grown numb from six years of Curry's shooting morphine drip.
THE GOOD SHOT DECISIONS
In re-watching the shots he took from Game 2, Curry made more good shooting decisions than I had assumed watching it live. Of the 23 shots he took, 12 of them look like good decisions by Curry. I'm classifying "good decisions" here as shots you feel comfortable with Curry taking based on his progression as a shooter over the years and whether or not they look like they're in the rhythm of his game.
He made just three of those 12 "good" attempts. On these shots, seven of them were open or very lightly defended, but he only made one of those. You walk away from watching this video of Curry's good shots and it leaves you thinking that Curry maybe just had an off night in Game 2.
One thing you have to remember is that unless a defender is up in the face of Curry and preventing him from being in his normal shooting motion, he's really unlikely to be affected by a defender there. You look back to his 2013 series against the Denver Nuggets and he was being "guarded" but he wasn't really defended on so many of those attempts.
You get a similar viewing experience in the video of his good shot attempts. But only a little over half of those attempts were good, which means there were some bad shooting decisions as well.
THE BAD SHOT DECISIONS
The conversation throughout the game and after the Cavs secured the victory in Oakland was how well Dellavedova had defended Curry. After looking lost in his brief moments on the floor in Game 1, Dellavedova seemed more comfortable and prepared for his defensive assignment in Game 2. That led to him defending Curry for much of the night, and receiving some good help from the big men as they forced Curry to go around some long screen hedging to eventually come free for shots that quickly disappeared.
While Dellavedova did a great job on Curry, it felt like it was the team concept that made sure Curry was covered so that the Australian guard could recover and take away space. Six of Curry's 23 shots were just flat-out terrible shooting decisions that were covered beautifully by the Cavs. He didn't make a single one of those six shots.
As you can see in the video, Tristan Thompson defended Curry on three of those six attempts with one of them coming at the end of the second quarter. Curry could've driven to the basket or tried to create space, but he picked up his dribble too early and was left with a prayer attempt over Thompson. The other two attempts he defended came on switches or pick-ups on the perimeter and he forced Curry into two bad, uncomfortable attempts without any rhythm.
Dellavedova had two of the other defended shots and he was draped all over Curry. Never fouling, always making him work, and contesting those two shots perfectly (we'll get to the end of the game attempt in a minute, but there's a reason it wasn't included here). What Dellavedova did perfectly and what most defenders can never seem to do is he used his strength against Curry and it helped him take away the space Curry usually has to shoot.
It's one thing to close out on Curry well. If it doesn't cause him to alter his shooting motion or rhythm, you're probably just looking good on SportVU data rather than actually defending the shot. But when he doesn't have any space to shoot in the first place, you're actually defending him and that's what Dellavedova did on those attempts.
THE INSANE SHOOTING MOMENTS
There were a couple of insane shot attempts and shooting moments that I felt needed to be separate here because those seem to be the moments that define Steph Curry games. It's the acrobatic attempts or the moments in which a shot goes halfway down and then crawls out of the rim like that creepy girl in "The Ring."
These are moments in Game 2 that seem to defy logic or normal shooting conditions, so I wanted to keep them separate. There were five of these attempts and he made two of them.
The first attempt in this video is a reckless runner/floater/circus shot type of attempt by Curry over Thompson that I guess technically counts as a layup. He ends up playing PLINKO with the ball and the rim before it drops in for one of his five made shots. The second shot in this video is a great look he creates for a missed jumper, which is followed up by an offensive rebound and that missed 3-pointer that went halfway down before crawling out of the well.
This was the attempt when it felt like there wasn't anything Curry could do to right the ship.
The shot after that was your typical "Curry shooting in someone's face when they think they're actually defending him but aren't" moment with 2:46 left in the fourth quarter and the Warriors in the middle of a furious comeback. LeBron James was on Curry but he wasn't actually on him. He knocked down the 3-pointer, finally getting one to drop.
The final shot in the video was Curry's final shot in the game. Despite having a horrendous shooting night for the Warriors, they trusted their MVP to still knock down the big shot in the game down one point with 10 seconds left. Curry jab-stepped then dribbled to the left where he'd create space and take a step-back jumper. Iman Shumpert was near Curry in help, and maybe that caused a little bit of angst in the shooting motion by Curry, but Dellavedova also recovered well to give it a solid contest.
Curry ended up with the air ball and then couldn't get a shot off on the final possession in a scramble to get the ball up the court without any timeouts. It was good defense by Dellavedova, but it was also a moment in which it's hard to figure out why the air ball was forced there. The defense wasn't so good that he didn't have room to do anything but blindly hoist. He has a good rhythm and motion on the shot; he just didn't have what he and his team needed that night.
THE POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT
If Curry can't get going in Quicken Loans Arena Tuesday night for Game 3, there may be a simple adjustment that is afforded to him by the aggressive hedging of the Cavaliers' defense. The Cavs' big men (especially Tristan Thompson) are over-emphasizing taking the high road against Curry when he's coming around screens and not allowing him to turn his shoulders and get to facing the basket. The Cavs have done a great job of moving Curry laterally or even backing him up on these pick-and-roll opportunities.
One adjustment that could be made and really cause chaos in the Cavs' defensive decisions is for Curry to start splitting those soft traps made by the recovering defender and the helping big. We saw it earlier in the "good shots" video and it's something that helped get the Warriors a key bucket to send the game to overtime.
One fun little thing to notice in this possession is Curry made sure to use his body to shield the defender and get the easy scoop layup off inside. He wasn't going to have a remix of the Irving block from Game 1 haunt him at the end of Game 2.
This is the type of adjustment that could really help Curry get going and get the Cavs' defense to scramble. Once Curry does this a couple of times, it will force the Cavs to start collapsing more on the paint and make a decision between taking away these layup attempts or chasing ball movement and shooters on the perimeter. The Cavs have done such a good job of slowing down these first two games, but if they're forced to make these decisions, it will be tough to keep the flow out of Golden State's offense.
Once this starts happening, we could see the Cavs' defense forced to adjust on how hard they hedge the pick plays for Curry, which could then start leaving him enough space to turn and fire away. If that happens, the Warriors and especially Curry could be back in their normal offense. With LeBron James on the other side of the floor, it's something Curry and the Warriors have to force the Cavs to do.
They're not afforded the same time frame of figuring this out like they were against the Grizzlies. Give the Cavs any more confidence after their Game 2 victory, and the Warriors could be in trouble. That's on Curry to take away from his Finals opponents.