The 2021 Pit Boss 250 will take place on Saturday at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. The 3.426-mile road course opened in 2012 and has since gone on to host Formula One and IndyCar, now it will host all three major NASCAR series in the same weekend. The NASCAR Xfinity Series race will begin at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday and several full-time Cup drivers will be looking to familiarize themselves with the track.
Kyle Busch is a 97-time Xfinity Series winner and he's listed at 13-5 in the 2021 Pit Boss 250 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Other Cup drivers will include Kevin Harvick (14-1), Cole Custer (20-1), Tyler Reddick (25-1) and Austin Dillon (40-1). However, Xfinity Series regular Austin Cindric is the 2-1 favorite in the NASCAR Xfinity Series at Circuit of the Americas odds after winning the championship last season and three of the first 10 races this season. Before making any 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Pit Boss 250 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.
The model began the 2021 Xfinity Series schedule by nailing Austin Cindric's win at Daytona at 10-1. It also called Cindric to win again at 5-2 in the Call 811 Before You Dig 200 and then it nailed nine of the top 10 in the 2021 Cook Out 250 at Martinsville. It also nailed three top-five finishers at Talladega in April and then called seven of the top 10 finishers last week in Dover. Anybody who followed those picks saw huge returns.
Now, his model simulated the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at COTA race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard.
Top 2021 Pit Boss 250 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Tyler Reddick, even though he's a 25-1 long shot in the Xfinity Series at Circuit of the Americas odds. He has a better shot to win than his odds imply, making him a great value pick. The 25-year-old had nine top-10 finishes in his rookie season in the NASCAR Cup Series last year and has followed that up with six top 10s in 13 starts in 2021.
Reddick was the 2018 and 2019 NASCAR Xfinity Series champion and he was extremely strong on road courses during his time on NASCAR's junior circuit. Reddick has four top-five finishes on road course in eight career Xfinity starts, and his history of success combined with a solid road-course track record makes him a great value at 25-1.
And a massive shocker: A.J. Allmendinger, one of the top-three Vegas favorites at 4-1, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this field. The 39-year-old veteran who spent 12 seasons in a Cup car has run a full-time Xfinity Series schedule this year and racked up six top-five finishes in 10 starts, including a win in Las Vegas.
However, Allmendinger has failed to finish inside the top 10 in two of his last four races and he finished 35th in his only other road-course start of the season at Daytona. Even with one Cup win and four Xfinity wins on road courses in his career, the model says the price isn't right with Allmendinger taking on the likes of Cindric, Busch, Custer, Kevin Harvick and Tyler Reddick.
How to make 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Circuit of the Americas picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR Xfinity Series at COTA odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR Xfinity Series picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Pit Boss 250 2021? And which long shots stun the NASCAR Xfinity Series? Check out the latest NASCAR Xfinity Series at Circuit of the Americas odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Cindric's season-opening win.
2021 Pit Boss 250 odds
Austin Cindric 2-1
Kyle Busch 13-5
A.J. Allmendinger 4-1
Justin Allgaier 12-1
Kevin Harvick 14-1
Noah Gragson 14-1
Daniel Hemric 15-1
Cole Custer 20-1
Field 20-1
Justin Haley 20-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Harrison Burton 30-1
Austin Dillon 40-1
Andy Lally 50-1
Miguel Paludo 60-1
Brett Moffitt 75-1
Brandon Jones 75-1
Jeb Burton 75-1
Riley Herbst 100-1
Alex Labbe 100-1
Michael Annett 100-1
Jeremy Clements 150-1
Brandon Brown 150-1
Myatt Snider 150-1
