There are only three races remaining in the 2023 NASCAR season and the Round of 8 in the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs will continue on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The green flag will drop on the 2023 4Ever 400 at 2:30 p.m. ET. The 1.502-mile speedway with 18-20 degree progressive banking in the corners will see seven drivers seeking to earn an automatics spot in the championship finale with a win. Kyle Larson punched his ticket already with a victory in Las Vegas and he's also the defending champion at Homestead-Miami.
Larson led 199 laps on his way to victory last season and he's the 5-2 favorite to win again according to the 2023 4Ever 400 odds. He's followed by Martin Truex Jr. (21-4), Tyler Reddick (6-1), Denny Hamlin (7-1) and William Byron (15-2) in the NASCAR at Miami odds. Before scouring the 2023 4Ever 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Miami predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 NASCAR Miami picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the last three weeks as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 last week in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021.
All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 4Ever 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Miami leaderboard.
Top 2023 4Ever 400 predictions
For the 2023 4Ever 400, the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's a 16-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Homestead odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After managing just one top-10 finish in his first 79 career starts in the NASCAR Cup Series and failing to win over his first 124 career starts, Chastain took advantage of the Next-Gen car designed to bring parity to the sport and put together a breakthrough season in 2022.
He won twice and made a legendary move in the penultimate race of the season, riding the wall at Martinsville to pass Denny Hamlin at the start/finish line to earn his way into the championship finale. He'd go on to finish second and then added a third win in 2023 but has already been eliminated from the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs. However, Chastain is a Florida native and finished second at Miami last season, making him a clear threat to work his way towards the front again on Sunday.
And a massive shocker: The model says Reddick, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top 10. There are far better values in the 2023 4Ever 400 starting lineup. Reddick is sixth in the NASCAR standings and is chasing his team owner Denny Hamlin for a spot in the championship finale.
However, Reddick has finished 15th or worse in three of his last five starts and finished 35th at Homestead-Miami last season. He didn't lead a lap in Las Vegas last week and was 25th in his last start at a 1.5-mile speedway (Fort Worth) before that. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Miami picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Miami odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 4Ever 400 2023, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Miami odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 NASCAR at Miami leaderboard, all from the model that already nailed nine winners this season.
2023 4Ever 400 odds, drivers, lineup
See full NASCAR at Miami picks at SportsLine
Kyle Larson 5-2
Martin Truex Jr. 21-4
Tyler Reddick 6-1
Denny Hamlin 7-1
William Byron 15-2
Christopher Bell 12-1
Ross Chastain 16-1
Kyle Busch 16-1
Brad Keselowski 18-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Chris Buescher 18-1
Chase Elliott 22-1
Kevin Harvick 25-1
Bubba Wallace 35-1
Ty Gibbs 45-1
Joey Logano 45-1
Alex Bowman 55-1
Erik Jones 80-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1
John Hunter Nemechek 200-1
Aric Almirola 250-1
Austin Dillon 250-1
Michael McDowell 300-1
A.J. Allmendinger 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 400-1
Chase Briscoe 500-1
Austin Cindric 500-1
Ryan Preece 750-1
Justin Haley 750-1
Harrison Burton 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 2000-1
Todd Gilliland 2000-1
Ty Dillon 2500-1
Ryan Newman 3000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
