Phoenix Raceway is the first one-mile intermediate track on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule this season, as the 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 will take place on Sunday. The D-shaped tri-oval features high speeds of long tracks in the confines of a short track, making a hot start important for the 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix field. The driver who led the most laps during the race has won at this track 67% of the time across the last five years. Which drivers should you back with your 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 picks when the green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET?
Ryan Blaney is the 13-2 favorite in the latest 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Kyle Larson and Joey Logano, who are both 17-2, are the other top 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix contenders, according to oddsmakers. Before scouring the 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Pennzoil 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), and Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1). It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Las Vegas leaderboard.
Top 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's an 11-1 long shot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Chastain had a pair of strong showings at Phoenix Raceway last year, finishing second in the spring and third in the fall.
He sits atop the NASCAR Cup Series standings for the first time in his career, posting a trio of stage victories in the first three races of the season. The second-year Trackhouse Racing driver finished as the runner-up in a breakthrough 2022 season, notching the first two wins of his career. Chastain has not made a trip to victory lane since last April, but the model believes he has a strong chance of returning there on Sunday. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, the top Vegas favorite at 13-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 starting lineup. The 29-year-old has made the postseason the last six years, but the seven-time NASCAR Cup Series winner is mired in a 49-race winless streak and enters Sunday sitting 15th in the NASCAR standings.
Blaney has been top 10 in his last five starts at Phoenix Raceway and has led laps in every race during that span (321 total), but he's been unable to secure a victory in any of those runs. In fact, he's winless in 14 career starts on the one-mile oval in Avondale, Ariz. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Phoenix odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the United Rentals Work United 500 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Phoenix NASCAR leaderboard, all from the model that already called winners at the Clash, Duel and Pala Casino 400.
2023 United Rentals Work United 500 odds, lineup
See full 2023 United Rentals Work United 500 picks at SportsLine
Ryan Blaney 13-2
Kyle Larson 17-2
Joey Logano 17-2
Denny Hamlin 9-1
Christopher Bell 9-1
Kyle Busch 9-1
William Byron 10-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Ross Chastain 11-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Chase Briscoe 22-1
Tyler Reddick 22-1
Bubba Wallace 30-1
Brad Keselowski 35-1
Daniel Suarez 35-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Ryan Preece 45-1
Josh Berry 50-1
Erik Jones 50-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Austin Cindric 60-1
Ty Gibbs 60-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-1
Noah Gragson 100-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Justin Haley 125-1
Corey Lajoie 200-1
Zane Smith 250-1
Harrison Burton 250-1
Michael McDowell 250-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Ty Dillon 1500-1
Todd Gilliland 1500-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
