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Kyle Larson is the leader in the NASCAR Cup Series standings, didn't finish the Goodyear 400 one year ago. However, he enters the 2023 Goodyear 400 on Sunday as the 4-1 favorite on Caesars Sportsbook to win at Darlington Raceway. Larson has won twice, with a second place finish in three of his last six events, and looks to avenge last year's failure at the 2023 NASCAR at Darlington race. One of his top competitors, Denny Hamlin (11-2), is a four-time winner at Darlington and won the AdventHealth 400 last weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. (7-1), Tyler Reddick (17-2) and Erik Jones (10-1) are all expected to be in the mix at the 2023 Goodyear 400 beginning at 3 p.m. ET. Before scouring the 2023 Goodyear 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Darlington predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Goodyear 400 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1) and Kyle Larson's win at Martinsville (6-1). In Austin, it called Tyler Reddick one of its best values when he won for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 11 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 Goodyear 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Darlington leaderboard.

Top 2023 Goodyear 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Chase Elliott, even though he's a 14-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Darlington odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 27-year-old missed six weeks after suffering an injury in a skiing accident, but he's shown glimpses of returning to his form as the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion.

Elliott has finished 12th or better in his four races since returning from injury and is coming off finishing seventh at the AdventHealth 400 last week. The 18-time winner has also had recent success at Darlington, finishing fifth and seventh in his last two spring races. But Elliott is still chasing his first victory at Darlington. At 14-1 NASCAR at Darlington odds, there could be value in a top driver at a price like that to record his first victory at the track. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Tyler Reddick, one of the Vegas favorites at 17-2, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. The NASCAR Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2020 earned his first playoff appearance in 2021 and then had a three-win season in 2022.

However, finished 14th in the standings last year after a disappointing start to the postseason that included a 35th-place finish in Kansas and a 25th-place finish at Bristol. Reddick is sixth coming into this weekend, but his average finish has been 16th over his last four starts and he's failed to lead a lap in three of those four races. There are far better values in the 2023 Goodyear 400 starting lineup, according to the model. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Darlington picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2023 Kansas NASCAR odds longer than 10-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Goodyear 400 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Darlington odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Darlington NASCAR leaderboard, all from the model that already nailed five winners in 2023.

2023 Goodyear 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See full 2023 NASCAR at Darlington picks at SportsLine

Denny Hamlin 11-2
Kyle Larson 11-2
Martin Truex Jr. 7-1
Tyler Reddick 17-2
Kyle Busch 10-1
Christopher Bell 10-1
William Byron 10-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Chase Elliott 14-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Bubba Wallace 30-1
Brad Keselowski 45-1
Daniel Suarez 50-1
Erik Jones 50-1
Ty Gibbs 60-1
Josh Berry 60-1
Chris Buescher 75-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
A.J. Allmendinger 125-1
Ryan Preece 150-1
Aric Almirola 150-1
Justin Haley 150-1
Austin Cindric 150-1
Michael McDowell 200-1
Noah Gragson 200-1
Ryan Newman 500-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1
Harrison Burton 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 1500-1
Ty Dillon 2500-1
Brennan Poole 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1