The 2.5-mile Pocono Raceway is completely unique among NASCAR tracks, as its three low-banked turns are different from each other, while its three straightaways aren't identical in length. That leads to races like Saturday's 2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 requiring a special skill set among drivers and teams alike to balance handling and speed. The Cup Series has been dominated in the past month by Kyle Larson, but can he successfully navigate the Tricky Triangle for the first time?

Larson has yet to win in 12 Pocono starts, but the current points leader will try to win his fourth straight race when he takes the 3 p.m. ET green flag as the 9-4 favorite in the latest 2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Past Pocono winners like Denny Hamlin (13-2), Kyle Busch (7-1), and Kevin Harvick (7-1) are also high up on the 2021 NASCAR at Pocono odds board. Before scouring the 2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Pocono predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Pocono Organics 325 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in seven of the last 14 races. In April, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Pocono leaderboard.

Top 2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Pocono odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Once one of NASCAR's young guns, the 37-year-old Keselowski has 35 Cup Series wins, including one at Pocono, in his stellar career.

Keselowski is 10th in the NASCAR standings heading into the weekend on the strength of his victory at Talladega and five top-fives this season. Keselowski has notched 10 top-five finishes in 22 starts at Pocono and has only finished worse than 11th once in his last 11 Tricky Triangle starts. That history, combined with a solid performance so far in 2021, makes Keselowski a strong target for 2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 bets, according to the model.

And a massive shocker: Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 8-1, stumbles and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Pocono Organics 325 field. The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion slipped to fourth in this year's standings after being disqualified for five loose lug nuts last week in Nashville.

Elliott does have seven career top-10 finishes in 10 starts at Pocono in the Cup Series, but he's finished 25th or worse in two of his last three starts on the Tricky Triangle. He's also had four finishes outside the top 20 already this season. Given that he's never won at Pocono, the price appears too steep for the talented young star.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Pocono picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Pocono odds longer than 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. It also sees value in a massive long shot who's almost 200-1. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Pocono Organics CBD 325 2021? And which massive triple-digit long shot is a shocking value this week? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Pocono odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed Kyle Larson's wins the last two weeks. 

2021 Pocono Organics CBD 325 odds

Kyle Larson 9-4
Denny Hamlin 13-2
Kevin Harvick 7-1
Kyle Busch 7-1
Chase Elliott 8-1
William Byron 10-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-1
Ryan Blaney 15-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Christopher Bell 50-1
Tyler Reddick 60-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 75-1
Erik Jones 75-1
Ross Chastain 75-1
Matt DiBenedetto 100-1
Ryan Newman 150-1
Austin Dillon 175-1
Bubba Wallace 200-1
Chris Buescher 200-1
Cole Custer 250-1
Daniel Suarez 300-1
Chase Briscoe 750-1
Ryan Preece 750-1
Michael McDowell 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Justin Haley 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Anthony Alfredo 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1