Nearly three years ago, Thiago Santos was the first man to win a scorecard against then-light heavyweight champion Jon Jones. Then came surgeries and a losing skid that saw Santos tumble from the ranks of contenders in the post-Jones UFC light heavyweight division. Santos enters Saturday's UFC Fight Night main event against Magomed Ankalaev looking to claw his way back into contention.
After starting his Octagon career as a middleweight, Santos jumped to the light heavyweight division in 2018. He immediately was a force at 205 pounds, scoring three straight knockout victories, culminating in a February 2019 win over Jan Błachowicz.
That run of success landed Santos in the Octagon against Jones that July where he would go on to give the champion nearly all he could handle before coming up short on two of the three official scorecards. Unfortunately, Santos suffered a series of serious injuries in the bout with Jones, including tearing his left ACL, PCL, MCL and meniscus, and also cracking his right tibia partially tearing the meniscus in his right knee as well.
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Santos returned in November 2020, losing via submission to Glover Teixeira and then losing to Aleksandar Rakic by decision in March 2021 before finally getting back in the win column against Johnny Walker this past October.
"I'm very critical [of myself]," Santos said in an interview with MMA Fighting. "In my opinion and the fan's opinion, the [Walker] fight lacked emotion and aggressiveness. But when you think about the fighter, we got what we wanted in the end, which is the victory. It happens. Sometimes thing don't go the way we wanted. I wanted him to come out like he always does, throwing spinning punches so I could catch him, but he didn't do it."
In Ankalaev, Santos faces a serious light heavyweight contender and a fighter on a seven-fight winning streak.
Ankalaev's lone stumble in the UFC came in his Octagon debut when he was caught in a Paul Craig triangle choke. He would then hit his stride and pick up four knockouts during his current winning streak.
In his most recent outing, Ankalaev picked up a win over former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir. A win over Santos would make for two consecutive wins over men who have challenged for the belt and land Ankalaev on the short list of challengers for the winner of the upcoming title fight between champion Teixeira and challenger Jiri Prochazka in June.
The undercard on Saturday may provide some of the best action of the year when it comes to Fight Night events. Bantamweights Song Yadong and Marlon Moraes are set to scrap it out in the co-main event. Featherweight veterans Sodiq Yusuff and Alex Caceres are prepared to battle in a featured spot. Karl Roberson and Khalil Rountree Jr. meet in a light heavyweight contest. Lightweights Drew Dober and Terrance McKinney battle it out on the main card. And middleweight hammers Alex Pereira and Bruno Silva kick things off on the main card.
Here's the fight card for UFC Fight Night with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
UFC Fight Night card, odds
| Favorite | Underdog | Weightclass |
|---|---|---|
Magomed Ankalaev -550 | Thiago Santos +400 | Light heavyweight |
Song Yadong -240 | Marlon Moraes +200 | Bantamweight |
Sodiq Yusuff -270 | Alex Caceres +220 | Featherweight |
| Karl Roberson -130 | Khalil Rountree Jr. +110 | Light heavyweight |
| Drew Dober -170 | Terrance McKinney +145 | Lightweight |
| Alex Pereira -195 | Bruno Silva +165 | Middleweight |
UFC Fight Night viewing information
Date: March 12 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: UFC Apex -- Las Vegas
Stream: ESPN+
Prediction
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Thiago Santos: Both men can throw serious heat in the stand-up game, with both having strong kick-based attacks. Ankalaev has shown a susceptibility to leg kicks in recent fights and Santos can leg kick with the best in the division. While Ankalaev has decent striking chops, Santos' power will likely make him want to employ his strong wrestling background to take the fight to the ground and minimize danger. But, can Ankalaev close distance to get those takedowns without eating Santos' explosive power?
It's important to note that Santos is far and away the best fighter Ankalaev has faced in his Octagon career. We've seen plenty of men stumble in big step-up fights and Santos is aware of how important it is for him to pick up a win and not have a 1-4 record in his five most recent outings. It's a tough fight to call, much tougher than the odds suggest, which would tell you Ankalaev is a lock as a force at the top end of the division. But this step up may be too much against a dangerous fighter who needs the win. Pick: Thiago Santos via TKO2
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