Thursday evening, the Cubs took take of business and punched their ticket to the NLCS with their Game 4 win over the Cardinals (CHC 6, STL 4). Later Thursday night, the Dodgers forced a Game 5 with their Game 4 win over the Mets (LAD 3, NYM 1). Three Game 5s in the LDS round will be fun.
The Dodgers and Mets will play Game 5 in Los Angeles on Thursday. The loser goes home and winner plays the Cubs in the NLCS beginning Saturday. The Cubs will be the road team in Game 1 of the NLCS no matter what. They were the second Wild Card team, after all.
Even though they'll be on the road for Game 1, the Cubs benefit from the Dodgers and Mets playing Game 5 because it potentially means one fewer Jacob deGrom or Zack Greinke start in the NLCS. Here is how each team's rotation may shake out in the NLCS:
| 2015 NLCS: Potential rotations for Dodgers and Mets | ||
| Dodgers | Mets | |
|---|---|---|
| NLDS Game 5, Oct. 15 | Greinke | deGrom |
| Off-day, Oct. 16 | ||
| NLCS Game 1, Oct. 17 | Brett Anderson | Noah Syndergaard |
| NLCS Game 2, Oct. 18 | Clayton Kershaw (normal rest) | Matt Harvey |
| Off-day, Oct. 19 | ||
| NLCS Game 3, Oct. 20 | Greinke (normal rest) | deGrom (normal rest) |
| NLCS Game 4, Oct. 21 | Alex Wood | Steven Matz |
| NLCS Game 5, Oct. 22* | Anderson or Kershaw (on short rest) | Syndergaard |
| Off-day, Oct. 12 | ||
| NLCS Game 6, Oct. 24* | Anderson or Kershaw | Harvey |
| NLCS Game 7, Oct. 25* | Greinke | deGrom |
* If necessary.
The Mets appear to be dead set on using a true four-man rotation in the postseason because Harvey, deGrom and Syndergaard are all on workload limits. Harvey's coming back from Tommy John surgery while deGrom and Syndergaard have thrown more innings than ever before.
That said, it would make sense to start deGrom in Game 3 (on normal rest) and Matz in Game 4, allowing them to start deGrom again in Game 7 (on normal rest, again). If they stayed on rotation and started Matz in Game 3 and deGrom in Game 4, deGrom would only make one start in the NLCS.
The Dodgers are trying to avoid using their fourth starter (Wood) at all costs. They have the option to bring Kershaw back for Game 1 of the NLCS on three days' rest, but I'm not sure they want him making consecutive starts on short rest. They might bring him back on short rest later in the series, but for Game 1? That seems like pushing it.
Anyway, this isn't about Kershaw. This is about Greinke and deGrom, the NLDS Game 5 starters. Because of the schedule, the only way either guy could make two starts on normal rest in the NLCS is if it goes the full seven games. Greinke or deGrom could start on three days' rest in Game 6, which only makes things slightly better.
Either way, Game 6 on short rest or Game 7 on normal rest, the NLCS will have to run long for deGrom or Greinke to make a second start. That's great news for the Cubs, who will be able to use both of their aces (Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta) before their opponent.
