Major League Baseball's regular season is nearing its final month, which, in turn, means that we're inching ever closer to the postseason. This will serve as the third year that MLB's playoffs have featured a 12-team field by design (the 2020 season also had a bloated postseason in response to the COVID-19 pandemic), and if there's one thing we've learned from the first two years, it's that the larger field is good at sewing chaos.
If there's a second thing we've learned about the new format, it's that the additional berths have made it easier for clubs to turn around their fortunes. Consider that seven teams have made the playoffs the last two years after posting a losing record the season before:
Depending on how the final month plays out, this October could feature another handful of teams making the leap -- possibly some combination of the Guardians, Royals, Mets, and Giants. (The Red Sox and Cardinals also have outside shots.) Even if just three of those teams get in, it'll vindicate the idea that there's a real opportunity for today's losers to become tomorrow's playoff participants.
With that in mind, we here at CBS Sports wanted to put our crystal ball to the test by trying to figure out which clubs could make the leap next season.
Below, we've ranked the nine teams who are all but guaranteed to finish below .500 in 2024 in order of their perceived chances of making the 2025 postseason. At the risk of stating the obvious, there's a great big offseason between now and then, and a lot of things can change during the course of it. Look no further than the Royals for an example of how a team can elevate itself and its postseason chances by making the most of the winter. Take this exercise for what it is and what it is intended to be: a mere snapshot in time.
Now, onto the good stuff.
Tier 1: Not likely
If you're on pace to record the most losses in a single season in modern MLB history, then chances are you probably aren't going to improve enough to make the subsequent postseason. Even so, we do anticipate the White Sox being better next season. Part of that is because they can't possibly get worse, and part of it is because they do have some interesting young talent either in place or on the way. We expect to see shortstop Colson Montgomery and lefties Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith play roles during the 2025 season, helping to raise the talent level of an historically poor squad.
8. Miami Marlins
General manager Peter Bendix still has a few veteran players he can trade between now and next Opening Day. Among those: slugger Jake Burger, outfielder Jesús Sánchez, and pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Jesús Luzardo. Will Bendix actually move most or all of them? We'll find out soon enough. It shouldn't surprise anyone if the Marlins continue to deconstruct themselves as part of a long-term effort to rebuild and modernize.
The Athletics are going to have a few different destinations over the next couple years, but we don't foresee the postseason being one of them, at least not in 2025. There's simply not enough talent in this organization, and it's hard to envision owner John Fisher ponying up at any point between now and the team's relocation to Las Vegas. (And even then, color us skeptical that he's going to sport an above-average payroll.)
Tier 2: Not likely but they'll probably try
We'll give the newly extended Perry Minasian this much: we're sure he's going to attempt to compete. That may mean adding some veteran pieces this winter, and it may mean rushing first-round pick Christian Moore to the majors within a year of his draft date. We don't think the end result is likely to land the Angels in the playoffs -- they have an abysmal farm system and too many holes to realistically patch in one winter -- but we'll tip our cap whenever an executive chooses to try instead of executing a nihilistic tank job.
You never know what the Rockies will or won't do during a given offseason; they operate in their own little corner of reality and we love them for that. Nevertheless, we think the chances of them stumbling into a surprisingly competent year are better than they have been in some time. We write that despite them clearly being one of the worst teams in the league because of a few reasons. Foremost, the Rockies have several interesting pieces on their active roster -- Brenton Doyle might be the best outfielder nobody talks about, and they may have a decent infield in place. They also have a few potential Dudes en route in recent first-round picks righty Chase Dollander and third baseman/outfielder Charlie Condon. We're not confident that the Rockies will actually be able to click things into place ahead of next year, but once again, we find ourselves a little higher on this bunch than we probably should be.
We're hedging our bets here because these Blue Jays appear to us to have more room for volatility than any other team on this list. They resisted the urge to trade either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette at the deadline, but both are heading into their final seasons before free agency. Toronto's front office has had some uninspiring drafts as of late, too, leaving them without a ton of incoming help. That means their competitive aspirations are likely to rest on two components: 1) what they do, if anything, with Guerrero and Bichette; and 2) how creative they can get in adding contributors in place of/alongside those two foundational pieces.
Tier 3: The actual contenders
As we've detailed before, there's no time like the present for a team with as good of a one-two punch as the Pirates have in Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. The scary thing is they have even more exciting young pitching talent on the way, including Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows, and Braxton Ashcraft. Ideally, the Pirates would spend the winter fortifying their lineup. We're sure general manager Ben Cherington wants to; we're not so sure owner Bob Nutting will let him. That's the only obstacle keeping the Pirates away from being the most obvious team on the rise in the majors.
The Nationals don't have anyone as dominant or buzzy as Skenes (who does, really?), but we feel better about the chances of Mike Rizzo getting to spend some of the Lerner family fortune. Beyond that, they do have flowering slugger James Wood and a collection of players who have proven they're solid or better MLB contributors. Some names to know include CJ Abrams, Jake Irvin, and Jacob Young. The Nationals also have right-hander Cade Cavalli back from injury, as well as outfielder Dylan Crews and third baseman Brady House champing at the bit in the minors. The National League East is going to be a tough division to climb -- what, with the Braves, Phillies, and Mets hanging around -- but we think the Nationals have a chance of making a leap in 2025 if they take some swings this winter.
1. Texas Rangers
The defending champions have had a disappointing season thanks to a brutal combination of injury and underperformance. There's a real chance they could lose several notable contributors to free agency, Max Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi included, and clearly there's no guarantee that youngsters Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter develop as desired. Still, we think they're going to rebound next year for a few reasons, beginning with the amount of star-caliber talent on this roster. Add in how they should get full (or fuller, anyway) seasons from Jacob deGrom, Josh Jung, and Tyler Mahle, and you can see the makings of a comeback effort. It helps that general manager Chris Young has shown that he's more interested in winning games than looking smart, and that ownership has given him the ability to spend if it means throwing another championship parade. There's a long way to go before Opening Day 2025, but we think the Rangers will find themselves back in the thick of things by this time next year.
