At some point very soon, perhaps as early as the end of this week, Juan Soto will agree to a record-breaking free-agent contract, and he'll deserve it. He's one of the best hitters in the game and he turned only 26 in October. Soto's production at such a young age is among the best in history, and he's just now entering what should be his prime years. He is 1 of 1.
And once Soto signs, his free agency will have passed with nary a word of interest from the Baltimore Orioles, one of the top teams in baseball and one with an enviable young core. Baltimore's 192 wins over the last two seasons are the most in the American League and the third most in baseball, though they were quickly swept out of the postseason both years.
To be fair, it is entirely possible the Orioles had interest in Soto and touched base with agent Scott Boras, and it simply has not been reported. They could be keeping things close to the vest. But we can say this: with Soto's free agency winding down though, it is known the O's are not among the finalists. The Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees are most involved.
The question I have is: why weren't the Orioles more aggressive on Soto?
It's possible Soto and Boras said thanks for your initial interest, but he doesn't want to play for the Orioles. Maybe those mid-Atlantic summers are too hot and sticky for him. If that's what happened and we just don't know about it, then I'm out of line here, and the Orioles should be commended for making a run at the top free agent after sitting on the sidelines the last few winters.
All I can go on is what's been reported and what I've heard, and all we know right now is the Orioles weren't heavily involved in the Soto bidding even though he is a perfect -- perfect -- fit for their roster and their team. I mean, Soto's a perfect fit for every team, but he's an especially good for the Orioles. Consider:
He's only 26!
Soto turned 26 the day of Game 1 of the World Series. He's nine months younger than O's franchise catcher Adley Rutschman. A superstar hitter becoming a free agent this young is extremely rare. And because he's so young, Soto fits Baltimore's roster perfectly. He's part of the youth movement, right? He's right there in age with Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, etc. Rarely does a free agent's peak align so perfectly with a young core's.
The O's need another bat
The Orioles offense weirdly scuffled down the stretch in 2024. As a team, they averaged 5.09 runs per game with a .774 OPS in their first 109 games. In their final 53 games, they averaged only 4.40 runs with a .702 OPS. Baltimore then scored one run in two games while being swept by the Royals in the Wild Card Series. Anthony Santander, who finished third in baseball with 44 home runs, is a free agent. Soto could step right into right field to replace Santander and is one of the very few available players who would be an upgrade. I'm not entirely sure why Baltimore's offense struggled late in 2024. I just know it happened, and Soto would help correct it.
They have no money on the books
The Orioles have only five players under contract for 2025, totaling $37.2 million salary. The highest paid is Zach Eflin at $18 million. No one else is making more than $8 million. Arbitration-eligible players like Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Cedric Mullins will boost payroll when they sign their 2025 contracts in the coming weeks, but clearly, Baltimore has plenty of room to spend. Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates their 2025 payroll at $88.9 million even with arbitration projections. The O's don't have a single player under contract in 2026 either. They have as close to a clean financial slate as possible in this game. They have the flexibility to sign Soto and extend Henderson, Rutschman, et al.
GM Mike Elias is said to be on the hunt for high-end starting pitching and for sure, the Orioles need it. Their rotation includes Eflin, Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and maybe Trevor Rogers at the moment. The O's got a great year from Corbin Burnes in 2024 and he's now a free agent, and I can understand prioritizing pitching this offseason, but a) they should be able to do two things at once, and b) free agents like Soto do not come around often. There is always pitching available. There is rarely a Soto available.
Baltimore billionaire David Rubenstein leads the group that purchased the Orioles from the Angelos family in March and took full control of the franchise in August. Once the sale was finalized, it gave us all a reason to believe spending at least had a chance to increase. The Orioles won 101 games in 2023 and then entered 2024 with the fifth-lowest payroll in baseball. The Angelos family seemed to be uninterested in fielding the best possible roster, or at least in paying for it. They cashed out and now Rubenstein's group leads the way.
I struggle to come up with a better way for Rubenstein & Co. to make a great first impression than signing Soto. He's a franchise player and superstars in their mid-20s are the best and safest free-agent investments. Re-signing Burnes would be a good move too, for sure, but if your choice is the 26-year-old star hitter or the 30-year-old star pitcher, don't you have to go with the hitter? I think it's obvious, though I'm willing to hear arguments otherwise.
In the end though, Soto's free agency is nearing its end, and the Orioles never appeared to be involved even though he's such a great player and such an obvious fit for a team that's on the rise. The O's still have to do the hard part, right? Tearing it down and rebuilding is easy. Transitioning from rebuilder to contender to champion is the hard part, and Baltimore is still looking to win its first postseason game with this group. They don't absolutely need Soto to get over the hump, but he would up the odds they do so.
The Orioles are a great team with arguably the best young talent core in the game. With or without Soto, I would expect them to win a lot of games moving forward, and I see no reason to think they won't break through and eventually make noise in October. It just seems like signing a guy like Soto is what they've been building toward. Develop the homegrown core, then supplement with the top-end free agent when you're ready. That top free agent is available, yet the O's seemingly sat out. That's a bit disappointing. If not Soto, then who?
