On Wednesday, the Boston Red Sox agreed to terms with free-agent infielder Alex Bregman on a three-year pact worth $120 million. (The contract reportedly includes significant deferrals, greatly reducing its present-day value, as well as opt-out opportunities after the first and second seasons.) While Bregman's fit with the Red Sox is understandably Thursday's main topic of discussion, let's not lose sight of what the move means for his former club: the Houston Astros.
Bregman had, of course, spent the duration of his professional career with the Astros, originally joining them as the No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft. In the time since, he had enjoyed great individual and team-level success, making a pair of All-Star Games and winning two World Series with the perpetually good Houston club. Now, Bregman will follow in the cleatprints of some Astros stars before him, including George Springer and Carlos Correa, by departing for a bigger payday through free agency.
Just where does this leave the Astros? Let's find out through the use of three subheadings.
1. Paredes, Altuve remain in place
Bregman's departure seemed inevitable entering the winter. So much so that the Astros traded outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs in December for a return that netted two third basemen: veteran Isaac Paredes and touted prospect Cam Smith. Houston also signed free-agent first baseman Christian Walker, assuring they would have new faces at both corner infield positions.
Then a funny thing happened. Bregman's free agency lingered, and the Astros appeared to resurface in negotiations. The Astros' interest in retaining Bregman reached a point where they not only traded reliever Ryan Pressly in a salary dump, but to where second baseman Jose Altuve publicly indicated he would move to left field if it would free up the keystone for a returning Bregman.
In the end, the Astros obviously did not retain Bregman. In turn, that means the Astros won't have to slide Altuve or Paredes around the diamond to accommodate Bregman.
Paredes, in particular, now becomes one of the key parts of Houston's lineup. Bregman's power numbers greatly benefited from playing in Houston and having the Crawford Boxes to aim at; that same dynamic should assist Paredes, arguably the modern player best known for overcoming otherwise modest exit velocity by pulling the ball in the air at high frequencies.
2. What to do with payroll flexibility
It's unclear how much the Astros were willing to spend on Bregman, or, in a matter of greater relevance, how much they're willing to spend, period. What is known is that their payroll projection falls around $218 million. That puts them $26 million below where they ended last season, and $23 million beneath the first luxury tax line, according to FanGraphs' estimates.
Teams tend to keep about $10 million in reserve for in-season additions. If we make two assumptions -- that the Astros are keeping $10 million tucked away for July, and that they don't want to spend into the tax zone -- then they have around $10-12 million left to spend before Opening Day.
Given that the Astros are expected to use Ben Gamel in left field most days, it stands to reason they'll remain on the lookout for some outfield help. Of course, having money to spend doesn't necessarily beget spending that money. There aren't many remaining free agents who would make sense for the Astros to prioritize. The top leftover hitters are Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez -- neither of whom would fit Houston's roster.
Maybe there's a trade to be had, or maybe the Astros will keep their powder dry and instead hope that internal options -- Shay Whitcomb, Zach Dezenzo, Kenedy Corona, Pedro León, and Jacob Melton among them -- can force their way into the lineup before summertime rolls around.
3. Draft impact
Another aspect worth highlighting is what Bregman's departure means for Houston's draft class.
Without getting into the nitty gritty, remember that players who decline the qualifying offer (as Bregman did) have serious draft-pick implications attached to their signings -- both for the teams that lose them and for the teams that sign them. The exact implications are based on a variety of factors, including the contract's value and taxpayer and revenue-sharing statuses.
Long story short, the Astros had to sacrifice their second- and fifth-highest picks to ink Walker. Now, they'll receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round for losing Bregman. That may not seem like a big deal, but it means the Astros will make four of the top 165 picks instead of just three.
Who knows, maybe that extra pick will allow the Astros and general manager Dana Brown -- a talented drafter who helped build the Atlanta Braves core -- to unearth another gem.