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USATSI

In some ways, the Toronto Blue Jays' 2023 season was a successful one. They won 89 games and despite playing an unbalanced schedule in the American League East -- the toughest division in baseball -- John Schneider's club notched a second-straight trip to the postseason. 

Thus ends the good news for the 2023 Jays. In the playoffs, they were bounced by the Twins in two games. That means Toronto has been swept in the Wild Card Series in each of their last three postseason trips. Overall, the Jays have lost seven straight postseason games and 10 of their last 11. The most fundamental goal in is to get back to the postseason in 2024, but then comes the matter of actually making a deep run. That sets the stage for the upcoming season. 

Win total projection, odds

  • 2023 record: 89-73 (third place in AL East, wild-card spot)
  • 2024 SportsLine projected win total over/under: 87.5
  • World Series odds (via SportsLine): +2000

Projected lineup

  1. RF George Springer
  2. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
  3. DH Justin Turner
  4. SS Bo Bichette
  5. LF Daulton Varsho
  6. C Alejandro Kirk
  7. 2B Cavan Biggio
  8. CF Kevin Kiermaier
  9. 3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa

The Jays last season ranked eighth in the AL in runs scored and sixth in the AL in OPS. Third baseman Matt Chapman signed with the Giants, and Toronto has essentially replaced Brandon Belt with Justin Turner as the primary DH. They may be looking at modest to significant offensive downgrades at each position. 

Projected rotation

  1. RHP Kevin Gausman
  2. RHP José Berríos 
  3. RHP Chris Bassitt
  4. LHP Yusei Kikuchi
  5. RHP Alek Manoah

The Toronto rotation was a key driver in their success from a season ago. In 2023, that rotation ranked third in MLB with a starters' ERA of 3.85 and seventh in MLB with an FIP of 4.15. That rotation is intact and full of incumbents going into 2024, but the back end has a major question mark. That's because Manoah has been a shell of himself since his breakout season of 2022. The struggles and concerns have persisted this spring. 

Projected bullpen

The Toronto relief corps was for the most part a source of strength last season. Their 3.68 ERA was good for eighth in the majors, and their 3.91 bullpen FIP checked in at sixth in MLB. That strong rotation permitted the Jays' pen to work just 557 innings, the fifth-lowest total in baseball a season ago. 

How much will they miss Matt Chapman?

Given the going rates for Chapman -- he signed a $54 million deal, albeit one loaded with opt-outs, with the Giants -- it's surprising the Jays didn't re-up with him. Suffice it to say, he'll be missed. His 4.4 WAR last season was second only to Bichette's 4.9 mark. Chapman remains a standout fielder at third base, and last season he hit like an MVP candidate before a finger injury hindered him down the stretch. Even if Chapman settles in as "merely" solidly above-average hitter, his defense is enough to make him an All-Star. 

In lieu of Chapman, the Jays are presently in line to make Kiner-Falefa the primary at the hot corner. IKF should be an asset with the glove (although not quite on Chapman's level), but the drop-off offensively is going to be substantial. Consider: 

  • Last season, IKF had an OPS+ of 78 compared to Chapman's 108. 
  • Over the last three seasons, IKF has an OPS+ of 83 compared to Chapman's 108. 
  • For their respective careers, IKF has an OPS+ of 81 compared to Chapman's 117. 

Overall, the Jays may be looking at a hefty loss of around three wins at the position, and that's quite a bit given the likely tight margins in the AL. 

Is George Springer in deep decline?

The Jays signed Springer away from Houston to a $150 million pact going into the 2021 season, and even while dealing with his usual health and durability concerns he was a key contributor when on the field to their last two playoff teams. Last season, however, Springer was as healthy as he's been in some time, but his value took a downward turn. In 154 games, Springer put up a career-worst OPS of .732, a figure that's even more disappointing given that Springer was manning the non-premium right field instead of his old position of center. 

Also troubling is that Springer's batted-ball metrics don't give much reason for encouragement. His xwOBA (what's this?) of .332 last season is a career low by a significant margin, and it marks the third straight full season in which Springer has seen that measure get worse. In 2023, he ranked in the 29th percentile among big-league hitters in average exit velocity off the bat and in the 44th percentile of hard-hit rate. His numbers, both actual and expected, dropped versus fastballs. That's a red flag, as is the steep drop in how often Springer was able to pull the ball. Throw in some defensive decline and the loss of some sprint speed, and Springer, now age 34, is perhaps a source of concern moving forward. Decline is rarely linear, especially for a player like Springer who's played at an All-Star level in the past, but with three years left on his contract, he needs a bounce back in 2024. 

What would make for a successful season?

Any on-paper contender of course aspires to win the World Series going into a given season, and that's doubtless the case for the 2024 Blue Jays. That said, we'll acknowledge the team's postseason struggles of late and give them a more modest goal -- earn a third-straight playoff berth for just the second time in franchise history and also make a deep run into October. What qualifies as a deep run is of course subjective, but we'll say make it to the ALCS for the first time since 2016. 

This isn't necessarily urgent from the standpoint of the roster, as almost all of the club's core contributors are under contract through at least the 2025 season. That said, if the Jays miss the playoffs or even wash out again in the opening round, then you might see some changes in the dugout and perhaps even the front office. There's achievement in making the postseason while playing in the gauntlet that is the AL East -- most projection systems tab them for a win total in high 80s, which should be enough -- but the Jays need more than "just" a spot in the playoffs to call 2024 a success.