The Mets have had a pretty funky start to the season. Their Opening Day had to be pushed back due to a COVID outbreak on another team and they ran their number of postponements to eight by the time they had only played eight games. They lost Jacob deGrom's first two starts and, last week, were swept by a Cubs team that looked hopelessly broken before the series.
And yet, they are 9-8 right now and sitting in first place in the uber-competitive NL East. There are reasons for optimism, too. The offense hasn't been very good at all, but surely it'll pick up just in glancing at the personnel. The bullpen has plenty of live arms and closer Edwin Diaz appears to be on track for a quality season.
Where this team could really get scary, though, is the rotation.
We know all about deGrom and don't need to spend much time on him, but good lord do these numbers pop. In 29 innings so far this year, deGrom has allowed just one earned run on 13 hits while striking out 50 against three walks. He's on another level than anyone else and seems to be actively improving.
How about the start from Marcus Stroman? Yeah, sample sizes and all that, but he's allowed only six earned runs on 18 hits in 24 innings so far this season. He saw some of the regression he was due on Saturday in a less-than-stellar outing, but he's inducing an awful lot of weak contact with his sinker-, cutter-, slider-heavy mix and still has a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Small sample alert: He's tied for first in the majors so far in groundball rate at 59.7 percent. For those unfamiliar with such a measure, just think about getting a groundball 60 percent of the time, from the pitcher's point of view. That seems great, doesn't it? It is. It's not wholly out of whack for Stroman, either. In his last full season, 2019, he ended up at 53.7 percent (fourth in MLB that year).
Stroman doesn't strike a bunch of hitters out (just 15 out of 92 batters faced so far), but it feels like backing up deGrom's power game with a pitch-to-contact guy can mess with opposing offenses. I checked with a few scouts and they all agreed that something like this can definitely affect the approach and execution from offenses, even if that isn't seen until the day following someone like Stroman pitching.
Perhaps that gave Taijuan Walker a hand on Sunday.
It's easy to get lost after deGrom, because he's the best pitcher in baseball, and Stroman, because he's such a ball of energy out there that you can't look away. Let's not ignore the early season Walker is putting together. He gutted through the Nationals' order several times despite not having his best stuff on Sunday, working seven scoreless innings and allowing only three hits.
Walker, 28, has always had loads of talent. He was the 43rd overall pick in the 2010 draft out of high school. He was ranked as high as No. 5 by MLB.com among the best prospects in all of baseball. There were injuries and inconsistencies and shuttling back and forth with the minors. And though it was only 43 starts from 2017-20, he did pitch to a 3.28 ERA (140 ERA+) when he took the ball those last four seasons.
So far in 2021, Walker has a 2.14 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Keep in mind, Carlos Carrasco also came over in the "Francisco Lindor" trade. Remember him? The Mets are targeting the second week of May for Carrasco to join the rotation. He finished in the top 10 in the AL in ERA and ERA+ in 2017, 2018 and 2020. (Carrasco missed most of the 2019 season after a leukemia diagnosis). From 2016-18, Carrasco was 46-24 with a 3.33 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 134 ERA+, 1.12 WHIP and 607 strikeouts in 538 1/3 innings. In 12 starts last season, he was 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA (157 ERA+) and 1.21 WHIP with 82 strikeouts in 68 innings. This is a frontline starter who has finished fourth in Cy Young voting before.
Oh, and Noah Syndergaard is now about 13 months removed from Tommy John surgery. He threw in an intrasquad game on Saturday and reportedly looked "very strong," sitting high-90s with his fastball. The Mets are targeting a mid-June return.
This is the guy who led the majors in FIP in 2016 and started 2017 with 30 strikeouts and no walks with a 1.73 ERA in 26 innings. He was 13-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 154 1/3 innings in 2018. He hasn't always pitched to his total upside, but that upside is a top-five pitcher in baseball when he's on. After such a long absence while working hard on rehab, it's entirely possible he's a total monster upon his return, even if his workload is very closely monitored.
Given the earlier discussion about Stroman breaking up the strikeout pitchers, what about a full-strength Mets rotation that looks something like this, come September?
- Jacob deGrom
- Marcus Stroman
- Noah Syndergaard
- Carlos Carrasco
- Taijuan Walker
The top-level outcome with that fivesome is pretty damn scary and I didn't even mention the high-upside talent that lefty David Peterson possesses.
If they do make the playoffs, it gives them the ability to do something creative with Syndergaard (opener for Walker? X-factor reliever?), knowing that he likely has workload constraints after the surgery.
Between all the postponements, the slow offensive start, losing deGrom's first two starts and off-field headaches, 2021 hasn't been overly kind to the on-field Mets thus far.
And yet, they sit in first place, primed to start seeing better fortunes with tantalizing possibilities come this fall.
