R.I.P.: 2014 Houston Astros' season
What went right for the 2014 Houston Astros? What went wrong? How do they move forward? Let's take a look as part of our R.I.P. series.
The Houston Astros' 2014 season was mathematically concluded recently. As we do with every team upon elimination, let us eulogize the season that was.
What went right
For a team set for its sixth straight losing season and missing the postseason nine straight times, a decent bit of positive came from this season.
Jose Altuve leads the league in hits, steals and batting average and he's only 24 years old. He has a shot to lead in doubles as well (he's second with 42, three behind the leader). Chris Carter has been one of baseball's best power hitters all year, and since the beginning of July, he's a great all-around hitter (.294/.363/.636). Rookies Jon Singleton and George Springer showed flashes of the greatness they could provide in future seasons, too, while veteran center fielder Dexter Fowler has proven a quality offseason pickup.
On the pitching end, Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, to different extents, were excellent in the rotation and are young enough to believe they can remain important parts of it moving forward. And is there hope after all for the once highly-touted Brad Peacock? He has a 1.66 ERA in his last four starts entering Sunday.
What went wrong
Well, obviously, note the aforementioned streaks without a winning record and/or making the playoffs. That's never awesome.
Otherwise, lots of off-field or non-MLB stuff. There was the tiff between general manager Jeff Luhnow and then-manager Bo Porter before Porter was fired. How about the leaked trade talks? There were reports that at least a few players were upset when 2013 first overall draft pick Mark Appel threw a bullpen session in Minute Maid Park and was promoted to Double-A, despite being pretty awful in Class A.
Speaking of first-rounders, the 2012 first overall pick Carlos Correa broke his leg after an outstanding first half for High-A Lancaster. The 2014 first overall pick, Brady Aiken, went unsigned amidst controversy while highly-touted fifth-rounder Jacob Nix was also hung out to dry as a result (though that one is still reportedly in the works).
Circling back to Appel, he finished the season 3-7 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 83 1/3 innings as a 23 year old between High-A and Double-A. He was better (3.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) once promoted to Double-A, but wasn't dominant. Considering Kris Bryant went second in that draft, this seems like one the Astros would like to have back (though, of course, that has the chance to eventually change).
As for on the field with the big-league club, they struggled to find consistent offensive production outside of Altuve, Carter, Fowler and Springer (when he was healthy). Also, 2013 All-Star catcher Jason Castro, heading into Sunday, lost 50 points off his batting average and 169 off his OPS.
Finally, the Astros rank dead last in the AL in bullpen ERA and it's not even close. They sport a 4.97 mark while the White Sox, who rank 14th, are at 4.32. The Astros also lead the league with 24 blown saves.
MVP: Altuve. He does it all well except hit for home run power. Even so, he ranks third on the team in slugging percentage. He'll be a leader here for a long time and, dare I say, he actually deserves a lot more credit than he gets (not for lack of trying from yours truly).
LVP: We're gonna tweak this to LVC -- that is, least valuable circumstance. It's the entire situation surrounding the last three drafts. Correa's broken leg, whatever is going on with Appel and the non-signing of Aiken (and possibly Nix) really sets the franchise back in the middle of a massive rebuild. Nailing these number one picks and having everything go smoothly is how turnarounds can be expedited. That didn't happen this year for Houston. And while the most die-hard of fans believe patience is a virtue, the general public continues to lose faith the longer the rebuild takes.
Free agents to be: RP Jesse Crain, RP Matt Albers ($3M club option), RP Jose Veras
Gameplan heading into the offseason
First up, they need a new manager. Porter butted heads with Luhnow and it seems that -- at least in part -- got him his walking papers. My colleague Jon Heyman recently wrote up a thorough rundown on the candidates, for those interested. This time around, Luhnow needs to hire someone who is sabermetrically-inclined, like himself, and will communicate well with him, so everyone is on the same page.
The Astros only have $17.65 million in guaranteed contracts, but arbitration cases and pre-arbitration players would push that up to around $44 million in payroll, assuming there are no outside organization signings and club options aren't picked up.
The Astros' payroll this season is $52.5 million.
Thus, there is some money to play with, even if the Astros don't want to significantly increase payroll. There haven't been any public statements on this, but the best guess is they don't. They seem to still be getting their ducks in a row with beefing up the farm system while looking to acquire younger, cost-controlled players for the MLB team and I wouldn't expect a shift from this mindset until next offseason at the earliest.
They do need to beef up the bullpen and could conceivably sign another starter for some depth. Among free agent starters, Jason Hammel, Justin Masterson and Brandon McCarthy seem like types that would strike the fancy of Luhnow and company. As far as relievers, given the new-school mindset, it's extremely unlikely the Astros would cough up big dollars for a "proven closer" type like David Robertson or Sergio Romo. Instead, expect guys in the range of Veras, Matt Belisle, Luke Gregerson or even a buy-low like Jim Johnson or Luke Hochevar (coming off injury like Crain was last year) to be on Houston's radar.
Trades are always a possibility, but it would be surprising to see Houston deal one of its coveted commodities (Altuve, Correa), meaning any trade would seem minor.
Really, they'll need to start seeing how Singleton, Springer, Domingo Santana and eventually the likes of Correa and Colin Moran (who could start in either Double-A or Triple-A next season) mix with the nucleus and progress at the big-league level.
Ridiculously premature prediction for 2015
They do a better job with signing their big-name draft picks?
On a serious note, the process continues. There are a few reasons to believe, right now, that it's going moderately well and beginning to turn around. The Astros need to show a few more reasons next season. The bet is they do, modestly. Look for low-to-mid 70s in wins, better work from Appel and overall a better season concerning all the draft stuff.
