R.I.P.: 2014 Chicago Cubs' season
The Cubs have been eliminated from postseason contention, so it's their turn for the R.I.P. treatment.
The Chicago Cubs' 2014 season was mathematically concluded recently. As we do in these parts, let us eulogize the season that was for the North Siders.
What went right
For a team set to finish fifth for the fourth consecutive season, a lot.
First of all, one of the main things the Cubs needed to see this season was progress from their younger players, specifically Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro -- who were coming off down seasons. Both were All-Stars this year and are among the best at their respective positions in the NL, in this their age-24 season. With both locked up to club-friendly, long-term contracts, the bounce-back seasons were huge for the Cubs.
How about Jake Arrieta? He was long a high-upside bust for the Orioles, but this year for the Cubs he's been excellent. He was joined in the rotation by rookie Kyle Hendricks, who went 6-2 with a 2.38 ERA (162 ERA+) and 1.09 WHIP. Felix Doubront and Tsuyoshi Wada also threw well when in the rotation.
Several young arms in the bullpen showed great promise, too, especially Neil Ramirez and Hector Rondon.
With the progress from so many young players, the first year of manager Rick Renteria has to be considered a success.
The Cubs did trade Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija in early July, but they got back Addison Russell and Billy McKinney. Both were great after the trade and Russell is considered a top-five prospect in baseball. Given the direction of the franchise, that trade was a huge plus. Throw in the exploits of top 2014 pick Kyle Schwarber and several others, and the farm system is considered by many among the best in baseball.
And then there are the kids that saw the bigs. Twenty-one-year-old Javier Baez has plenty of issues at the plate, but he's shown his power is real. Arismendy Alcantara has shown flashes of his all-around ability and Jorge Soler has wowed from the start.
Finally, Kris Bryant -- the No. 2 overall pick in 2013 -- was the best player in the minors this year, hitting .325/.438/.661 with 34 doubles, 43 homers, 110 RBI and 15 steals in 138 games between Double-A (68 games) and Triple-A (70 games).
What went wrong
The Cubs are destined to finish last again, so that's obviously first and foremost here. In looking at season-long league ranks, it's not difficult to see why. The Cubs rank 12th in the NL in runs, despite being second in homers, in part because they are 13th in average and 14th in on-base percentage. The team ERA is 13th, too.
Individually, it wasn't all positive from the younger guys. Junior Lake and Mike Olt were real bad, for the most part, in the majors and both required demotions to the minors. He's 27, so he's not part of the prospect wave, but Welington Castillo took a step back.
On the mound, it was the veterans that let the Cubs down. Specifically, Edwin Jackson (6-14, 6.09) was awful and Travis Wood (8-12, 5.03) was wildly disappointing. Going back to the beginning of the season, we can't forget how badly the Jose Veras signing tanked.
MVP: Rizzo. If not for a back injury a few weeks ago, he might well have flirted with 40 homers this year. He's still second in the NL to Giancarlo Stanton while also ranking in the top 10 in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Co-LVPs: Wood and Jackson. Wood was an All-Star last year. Jackson was the Cubs' highest-paid player this year. Among the 45 pitchers qualified for the NL ERA title, Wood ranks dead last. Jackson is over a run worse, but he's spared the list due to his injury and falling short of being qualified. Had the Cubs gotten what they paid for from Jackson and what Wood gave last year (which would've been a stretch anyway, but work with me here), they could have flirted with .500 for a while. Instead, the two combined for 55 starts and 1.4 fWAR, compared to Hendricks' 1.3 fWAR over just 11 starts.
Free agents to be: RP/SP Carlos Villanueva; also note that Alfonso Soriano's contract comes off the books
Gameplan heading into the offseason
This is a big offseason for Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and company. The Cubs have just over $30 million in payroll committed to next season. Even with the arbitration raises and pre-arbitration salaries factored in, the payroll would only be around $60 million (and that's without subtractions to the roster, which are likely coming). Now, it's only been $66.9 million this season, but the Cubs have repeatedly made it known that they have money to spend this winter for several reasons.
Atop the wish list is a frontline starting pitcher. Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields fit the bill. With the Epstein and Hoyer administration having strong ties to Lester, the connection there makes sense and many rumors have indicated that there is mutual interest.
Beyond that, it's possible the Cubs grab another starter, this one likely coming from the group that includes Justin Masterson, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano et al.
Further, the Cubs have also indicated a preference to find a leadoff man this offseason to put in front of their young firepower. If the Nationals don't pick up Denard Span's option, he'd be intriguing, but the bet is they do. What about Nick Markakis? He's not a prototypical leadoff man, but the Cubs just want someone to get on base. Markakis would fit nicely atop an NL lineup that isn't overly concerned with stolen bases and has a $17.5 million option for next year.
Finally, there is the glut of middle infielders that makes everyone think the Cubs have to trade someone for pitching. As I've pointed out numerous times before, they don't have to. Shortstops in the minors frequently are moved to other positions in the majors. The notion that Starlin Castro and his club-friendly deal are gone for less than a stellar package (start with Matt Harvey, Mets fans, and work from there) are laughable. I could see Javier Baez or even Addison Russell dealt, but the Cubs' return would have to be huge.
Mostly, the feeling is the Cubs look to add a few pieces in free agency and see how everything progresses with the youngsters in 2015. This will be one of the most fun teams to monitor in the offseason.
Ridiculously premature prediction for 2015
They'll get Lester while Bryant wins the NL Rookie of the Year and the Cubs finish with a winning record for the first time since 2009. At least one of the hot-shot youngsters struggles, though, and a serious playoff run will have to wait another year. Still, they'll head into next offseason with many reasons for optimism for 2016 and beyond.
