Change is coming to the desert -- potentially drastic change.
In trying to move beyond an 8-19 September that cratered their postseason chances, the Arizona Diamondbacks are considering rebuilding. This appears to be a reaction, perhaps not to a crummy month, but the impending free agencies of A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin, as well as the fact face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt only has one year left on his deal.
Perhaps it's not too surprising, then, that the Diamondbacks will entertain offers for all their top players, including Goldschmidt:
As has been reported, the D-Backs will listen to offers on their best players, including Paul Goldschmidt. Most contenders are locked in at 1B for 2019; the Cubs have Rizzo, for example. Total speculation: One team that could be a great fit for a Goldschmidt deal -- the Yankees.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) October 14, 2018
With that in mind, let's take a look at the D-Backs' 10 best trade candidates.
As previously highlighted, Goldschmidt has one year remaining on his deal, during which he'll make more than $14 million. After that, he'll hit the open market as a 32-year-old right-handed hitting first baseman -- or, realistically, nobody's idea of a great long-term investment. Still, Goldschmidt overcame a rough start in 2018 to finish the year with a 139 OPS+, thus ensuring he would continue a streak that has seen him post an OPS+ higher than 125 in all seven of his full seasons. Contenders hoping to land a premium middle-of-the-order bat should inquire, even if they have no interest in keeping Goldschmidt beyond next season.
Zack Greinke has almost been as consistent as Goldschmidt. This season marked his fourth 200-inning effort in five tries, and he's now reeled off 11 consecutive seasons with an ERA+ over 100 -- that dates back to when he returned as a full-time starter. Greinke has continued to bleed velocity, averaging less than 90 mph on his fastball for the first time, per Statcast. He's smart and athletic -- and, most importantly, he made it work -- but he's due more than $100 million over the next three seasons. Is any team willing to make a bet that large on him? We'll find out.
Although Robbie Ray failed to match his breakout 2017, there's still plenty to like. His wildness demands he limit the quantity and quality of contact against him in order to be effective. Luckily, Ray can still pump a 94 mph fastball and evade bats on more than 45 percent of the swings taken against his breaking balls. He's under team control through the 2020 season, and while his style is inherently volatile, any acquiring team is likely landing a mid-rotation starter at worst.
The unheralded David Peralta has two more seasons of team control remaining as well. He does almost everything at the dish, hitting for average, walking, and bopping. The only real blemish in his offensive game is that he's a non-factor against left-handed pitching -- that despite the Diamondbacks platooning him less in the last couple years. Contenders should jump at the opportunity to insert Peralta into their most-days lineup.
Jake Lamb has a number of things in common with Peralta. He too is a left-handed stick who vanishes against southpaws; has two seasons of team control left; and would look good in many uniforms. The differences are that Lamb plays third base, not the corner outfield, and that he's coming off a miserable, injury-shortened season. If those contrasts cancel out, then don't be surprised if Lamb is desired just as much (and perhaps more so) than Peralta.
The free-agent market is scheduled to be flooded with glove-heavy shortstops. As a result, the D-Backs may not find a taker for Nick Ahmed and his two remaining seasons of team control. That'd be a shame, because Ahmed is an interesting player. In addition to being a highly skilled defender, he had an eyebrow-raising year at the plate that saw him homer 16 times in 564 plate appearances -- notable, given he'd homered 20 times in 1,020 prior plate appearances. Ahmed isn't turning into Manny Machado, and may not even become Zack Cozart. But if he can up his offensive game just a little more, then he's a vastly superior option to the Adeiny Hechavarrias and Freddy Galvises of the world.
If Arizona is serious about a rebuild, then moving Archie Bradley -- or any reliever, including Yoshihisa Hirano really -- makes sense. Bradley gets the nod here because he has three seasons of team control left. Despite being a two-pitch pitcher, he's proven capable of retiring left-handed hitters. To wit, he's yielded one home run to lefties the past two seasons -- that after giving up 10 to them as a starter in 2016. He slots in best as someone's setup man.
Steven Souza Jr. is confusing. He enjoyed a banner season in 2017, homering 30 times while posting the lowest launch angle of his career. Souza was traded to Arizona and responded by changing his approach, lifting the ball more and pulling the ball less often. The result was a higher launch angle … and an otherwise horrid offensive campaign that saw him homer five times in 72 games and finish with a 77 OPS+. Woof. Souza Jr. could be an enticing bounceback candidate for contenders -- provided he can find a formula that works and stick to it.
Taijuan Walker will not, in all likelihood, be moved this winter -- not after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier in the year that's likely to sideline him until next summer. Walker could be moved next winter, however, when he has one more season of team control left.
Chris Owings is set to be a free agent after the 2019 season. He hasn't lived up to expectations at the plate -- partially due to an aggressive approach -- yet he's a versatile defender and fair baserunner whose relative youth (27) could convince a contender to take a chance on him as a bench piece with some upside.
