Oakland Athletics 2021 season preview: Projected lineup, rotation and three things to know

The Athletics are looking for a fourth consecutive playoff berth -- will they get it?

By R.J. Anderson

Mar 21, 2021 at 10:11 am ET • 5 min read

Getty Images

For whatever reason, the Oakland Athletics' success doesn't receive as much attention as it did earlier in the millennium. Perhaps it's because the A's are Schrodinger's baseball team: their past exploits are overexposed in print and film, while their current triumphs are undercovered. It doesn't help that the A's tend to hibernate during the winter, when the hype machine is programmed, or that they begin to doze off in October, when glory is obtained. They're a baseball team's baseball team: quite good, wholly unmarketable.

Be that as it may be, the A's keep chugging that celebratory champagne at the end of the regular season. They've made three consecutive playoff appearances, and last year they were able to secure their first American League West crown since 2013. The A's didn't take the winter off, either. They couldn't; the departures of Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks, and Robbie Grossman meant reinforcements and creativity were required to keep afloat.

Did the A's do enough to make it to October once more? Let's find out.

Win total projections, odds

2021 Sportsline projection: 96-66
World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +2200
2020 record: 36-24

Projected lineup

Bench: C Aramis Garcia; UTL Chad Pinder; OF Ka'ai Tom; INF Jed Lowrie

The A's made two notable additions to their lineup this winter: trading for Andrus (shipping out Khris Davis in the process) and signing Moreland. Otherwise, this group is mostly what it is, and what it has been for the past few years. The A's were a middle-of-the-pack offense last year, so they'll hope to do better this spin.

Projected rotation, bullpen

Bullpen: RHP Trevor Rosenthal; LHP Jake Diekman; RHP Sergio Romo; RHP Lou Trivino

Oakland left its rotation untouched, other than bringing back Fiers, and instead devoted its time and resources to the bullpen. Rosenthal, Romo, Nik Turley, and Adam Kolarek could all be new faces in relief. That doesn't even include bringing back Petit (whose rubber arm goes unappreciated on a national level).

Now, onto three pertinent topics about your 2021 Athletics.

1. Can the A's repeat in the West?

For years, the AL West has been a two-team race between the A's and the Astros. The Rangers and Mariners appear content to sit this one out, but the Angels have the potential to make the West go three-wide during the late stages.

Whether or not that proves to be the case, the A's stand a fair chance of repeating as division champions if you believe Sportsline's projections. Said forecast has the A's winning the West with 96 victories, two more than the Astros. Other projection systems aren't as bullish on the A's chances: PECOTA and ZiPS have them in third with 83 wins.

If you're an A's fan looking for a reason to be optimistic in general, just know that Oakland's lineup figures to be better than it was last season, when it ranked in the middle of the pack in FanGraphs' park-adjusted wRC+ measure. The A's are almost certain to get better performances from Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano, and Stephen Piscotty (each of whom had career-worst efforts), and more games period from third baseman Matt Chapman, who was limited by injury to 37 appearances in 2020.

There's also the matter of eking a few extra wins out of some clever handling of the pitching staff. On that note ...

2. How will remade bullpen stack up?

You may have known that the A's led the majors in bullpen ERA last season. They were also second in Win Probability Added, a context-based metric that attempts to suss out the responsibility each individual bears in a result. By that measure, Oakland's relievers were worth nearly five wins, an impressive accomplishment considering just two other teams (Rays, Royals) saw their bullpens exceed three wins in 2020.

However, the A's spent the winter overhauling their relief corps. Three of Bob Melvin's four most-used relievers last season are now elsewhere: Hendriks with the White Sox, T.J. McFarland with the Nationals, and Joakim Soria with the Diamondbacks. Some of the tweaking was by necessity -- the A's weren't going to pony up for Hendriks -- but the parts that weren't made it clear they wanted to beef up a vital part of their team.

The A's biggest expenditure was reserved for Trevor Rosenthal. A year ago, he seemed on his way out of the majors after a disastrous 2019. Rosenthal rebounded last season, punching out 38 of the 91 batters he faced in 23 appearances. He figures to enter the year as the A's closer.

Elsewhere, the A's brought in Sergio Romo, Adam Kolarek, and Nik Turley. Romo is a journeyman veteran with ample late-inning experience. Kolarek, meanwhile, is an effective left-handed specialist who survived year one of the three-batter minimum rule. Then there's Turley, an intriguing low-cost addition who might yield a nice return on investment. His 4.98 ERA last season belies that he's a spin-rate monster who missed a lot of bats with his mid-90s fastball and curveball.

Combine those arms with those who are returning -- J.B. Wendelken, Jake Diekman, Lou Trivino, Yusmeiro Petit -- and the A's have the makings of a solid group once again.

3. This core's final ride?

Sorry, A's fans, but we have put the thought on the radar.

Come the winter, the A's could lose Mark Canha and other veterans to free agency; Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Frankie Montas will enter their second years of arbitration; Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Chad Pinder will enter their walk years; and so on. Between the internal raises and the need to replace some players externally, the A's are going to quickly enter into a sticky situation with their payroll.

Projections have the A's with an Opening Day payroll around $83 million, or about $12 million below what they were supposed to field on Opening Day 2019. There's enough uncertainty in the air -- because of arguably the worst stadium situation in the game; the pandemic; the potential for a work stoppage; and how they no longer receive revenue sharing -- to wonder if the A's will be able to maintain a payroll in the $80-plus million range heading forward.

Even if the A's can maintain that payroll, they'll eventually have to weigh the merits of keeping Chapman and Olson in town (presumably sans extension) versus what they could get in return. The A's are one of the few teams (Cleveland included) who never seem to partake in tanking or bottoming out, so the next couple of winters are going to make for interesting times in Oakland.