This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday afternoon here.
All times Eastern | Game odds via SportsLine consensus
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Brewers at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Dodgers (-146)
- Key trend: The Dodgers have won nine of their last 10 home games.
Even when facing an ace like Corbin Burnes, I have no problem backing the Dodgers and their electric offense.
The Dodgers are one of the hottest teams in baseball as they're currently riding a 10-game winning streak. During that hot stretch, their offense is averaging 6.1 runs and has scored at least seven runs in four of those contests. This is a team that has scored the third-most runs in all of baseball while also slugging the second-most home runs behind only the Braves. On top of that, Los Angeles hasn't lost a home game since July 30 against the Reds.
Burnes has been great at times this season, but he's had some issues as well. In fact, the Brewers' ace is coming off of an outing in which he surrendered five earned runs on eight hits across 5 2/3 innings against the White Sox. Burnes has also given up a home run in each of his last three starts, which is important considering the Dodgers mash so many long balls. Look for the Dodgers offense to continue to thrive in this spot.
|
|
|
|
|
|
💰 More MLB picks
Diamondbacks at Padres, 9:40 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv
- The Pick: Over 8.5 (-103)
- Key trend: The over has hit in three of the Diamondbacks' last six games.
Two of the more explosive lineups go head-to-head when the Padres host the Diamondbacks. Despite the Diamondbacks sending ace Zac Gallen to the mound Thursday, the over is definitely the play here.
Listen, Gallen has been strong throughout the 2023 season to the tune of a 12-5 record and 3.24 ERA. Still, the possibility exists for him to surrender at least a few runs in this spot. Gallen has given up at least three earned runs in five of his last eight starts while yielding at least four earned runs in two of those outings. On top of that, the Padres offense is starting to find its stride after some early season struggles. The Padres just racked up 16 runs in three games against the Orioles, who own the best record in the American League. It also doesn't hurt that the Diamondbacks' bullpen has the fifth-highest ERA (4.67) in all of baseball. With Fernando Tatis Jr. and company swinging some hot bats, the possibility for runs definitely exists here.
Meanwhile, the Padres will likely be surrendering a handful of runs. That's because veteran left-hander Rich Hill is on the bump. Since being acquired from the Pirates, Hill hasn't exactly kept the opposition at bay. In two starts with the Padres, Hill has conceded nine total runs in just 6 1/3 innings, including six earned runs in just three innings against the Dodgers. Ironically, his most recent start came against the Diamondbacks. In that outing, the 43-year old was tagged for three earned runs on seven hits in just 3 1/3 innings.
With the Diamondbacks and Padres owning two of the more dangerous lineups in the majors, the over is certainly in play.
Mets at Cardinals, 7:15 p.m. | Watch live: FOX
- The Pick: Jose Quintana Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-104)
- Key trend: Quintana has registered at least five strikeouts in two of his last four starts.
Mets left-hander Jose Quintana returned to the mound last month after missing the first four months of the 2023 season with a rib injury. Despite being winless since returning in July, Quintana has been extremely consistent, which is why I like his strikeouts prop Thursday night.
Quintana has recorded at least five strikeouts in two of his last four starts. What makes this strikeouts prop so appealing is the fact that he's been able to go fairly deep in games. The veteran starter has lasted at least six innings in four of his five starts since returning from injury. While the Cardinals don't strike out at a massive rate, this is still a team that is averaging 7.8 strikeouts over their past five games. During that span, St. Louis has struck out 10+ times in two of those contests. Quintana should be able to do enough to get us to the five-strikeout bar.
