The 2020 Major League Baseball season has managed to withstand despite several scheduling disruptions due to coronavirus outbreaks on the Marlins and Cardinals. In this shortened season that's just nine weeks in length, every swing and pitch matters much more than it normally would in a 162-game slate. And with the expanded postseason, teams can recover from shaky starts and still contend for the World Series title. It's certainly going to make things interesting.
So, we're going to take a closer look at some of the biggest stories from the latest batch of games in baseball, and give each one a buy/sell decision. What are you buying and selling after this week in baseball? Feel free to share your thoughts on Twitter with me @KatherineAcqua.
Now, let's get to it:
Buy: NL East is wide open
The National League East has been expected to be a powerhouse, but the division hasn't quite lived up to its hype just yet. However, so far in 2020, the division has proven to be tighter than any other in baseball. Here's what the standings look like, as of Aug. 18:
| Team | W | L | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
14 | 10 | .583 | |
Miami Marlins | 9 | 7 | .563 |
8 | 9 | .471 | |
10 | 14 | .417 | |
8 | 12 | .400 |
We're roughly one-third into the 60-game season and nearly every team is technically still in the mix. According to Fangraphs, the Braves have the best odds of taking home their third straight division crown at 55.3 percent. The Phillies are second at 22.6 percent with a big drop after them, Mets and Nationals at 9.6 percent while the Marlins are just 3.9 percent of winning the division.
But, with this year's 16-team postseason, the NL East becomes one of the few divisions in baseball to own decent playoff odds across the board. The NL East club with the smallest odds to make it to the playoffs (Marlins at 19.3 percent) is still one of the highest percentages among clubs in other divisions that are in the same position. For example, in the AL West, NL West and NL Central, the clubs (Mariners at 0.9, Giants at 3.3, Pirates at 0.5) with the smallest chance to make it to the postseason are next-to-none.
The Marlins suffered a massive coronavirus outbreak at the beginning of the season, which left their roster compromised when it came time for their return to the field. But, it didn't slow the club down as they posted an impressive 7-1 record after their shutdown. The Braves potent lineup has kept them atop after injuries to their rotation. The defending champion Nationals, however, are trying to recover from a slow start and hoping ace Stephen Strasburg returns from the injured list sooner rather than later. The Mets have been crushed by injuries and general franchise dysfunction, but have still managed thanks to their ace Jacob deGrom and 2019 Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso. And, finally, the Phillies could use some bullpen help (a reminder: the trade deadline is Aug. 31 this year) but their offense is being paced by J.T. Realmuto, whose excellence thus far should bode him a hefty deal in his upcoming free agency.
Sure, there are other divisions in baseball right now that are currently in a tight division battle. And sure, there are probably some divisions with more talented teams right now. But, I'm specifically choosing to look at the NL East because I think the division has a chance to sustain the tight race as this season goes on. I'm buying this division as the one to keep an eye on down the stretch. It's 2020, remember? Anything can happen.
Sell: Baltimore Orioles breakout offense
The rebuilding -- emphasis on the rebuilding -- Baltimore Orioles were not expected to win a lot of ballgames in 2020. But the club has been one of the most surprising breakout teams so far this season. Now, we won't spend time breaking down the Orioles lineup, instead, we're going to figure out whether or not we buy this O's offense sustaining its run. Catcher Pedro Severino, second baseman Hanser Alberto, outfielder Anthony Santander and designated hitter Renato Nunez have all contributed to the top numbers during the hot streak.
Entering Tuesday, Baltimore ranks second in the American League for slugging (.455), OPS (.779) and average (.259), behind the juggernaut New York Yankees. Hot streaks are always fun in baseball, but because baseball's a game of constant adjustments, the hot streaks never last. Pitchers will eventually figure out what they need to do, and the next time they're facing Baltimore, they're going to make the changes necessary to challenge the same hitters the next time around.
I think that this hot streak in particular is a mix of some Orioles batters getting a little lucky early on while others are turning a corner in their offensive game. And as of late, the lineup has already started to sputter out. I'm definitely impressed and the O's postseason odds have seen a jump, but I don't see the youngster Orioles able to keep their pace for much longer.
Buy: Lance Lynn dominant in 2020 starts so far
Texas Rangers right-hander Lance Lynn is having a dominant season in 2020. We'll let his numbers speak for themselves:
Lynn, 33, was mostly above average last year. He posted a 16–11 record with a 3.67 ERA and 246 strikeouts over 208 1⁄3 innings, and finished fifth in the AL Cy Young Award voting. A resurgence of this sort this year wasn't expected. But, alas, the veteran has been absolutely lethal in his five starts.
His most recent dominance included a complete game win over the surprisingly impressive (surprisingly impressive should be the main takeaway from this 60-game season so far) Colorado Rockies. Lynn earned his third win and stayed undefeated on the season by allowing just two runs (one earned) on two hits and no walks. He struck out six batters over the nine innings at the hitter-friendly Coors Field.
As things stand, the Rangers could very well be getting some trade interest inquiries for Lynn before the Aug. 31 deadline. Given the expanded postseason, the Rangers could ultimately end up hanging on to their top starter if they decide to try to make a run at qualifying for the playoffs. Entering Tuesday, the Rangers are 10-11 and five games back of the first place Oakland Athletics in the AL West. Lynn is in year two of a three-year, $30 million contract he signed with the Rangers during the 2018 offseason.
